ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181953
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 14 20110718
194300 2746N 07642W 8429 01567 0097 +170 +120 236050 051 030 001 00
194330 2745N 07641W 8429 01571 0097 +173 +118 238049 049 029 000 03
194400 2743N 07639W 8429 01573 0100 +175 +118 240048 049 029 000 00
194430 2742N 07638W 8425 01579 0104 +171 +124 237045 047 028 000 03
194500 2741N 07636W 8426 01578 0109 +162 +131 238043 043 028 000 00
194530 2740N 07635W 8429 01578 0111 +164 +137 234041 042 027 000 00
194600 2739N 07634W 8429 01580 0113 +163 +140 229038 038 025 000 00
194630 2737N 07632W 8429 01582 0114 +164 +145 228039 041 026 000 00
194700 2736N 07631W 8428 01583 0116 +160 +146 229041 041 024 002 00
194730 2735N 07630W 8429 01583 0119 +156 +150 228040 040 022 001 00
194800 2734N 07629W 8428 01584 0119 +157 +148 225041 042 023 000 00
194830 2733N 07627W 8428 01586 0118 +161 +144 224039 040 022 000 00
194900 2732N 07626W 8428 01588 0120 +160 +141 221039 040 023 001 00
194930 2731N 07625W 8430 01585 0123 +158 +138 223039 039 022 000 00
195000 2729N 07623W 8428 01589 0123 +160 +141 221039 040 021 000 00
195030 2728N 07622W 8429 01589 0122 +163 +133 223039 039 020 001 00
195100 2727N 07621W 8428 01590 0123 +163 +134 224039 040 020 000 00
195130 2726N 07620W 8429 01590 0127 +157 +143 222038 038 021 000 00
195200 2726N 07620W 8429 01590 0127 +156 +146 223037 037 019 001 00
195230 2724N 07617W 8429 01590 0128 +156 +147 223035 036 018 001 03
$$

[Ivanhater]

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 182003
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 15 20110718
195300 2723N 07616W 8429 01591 0130 +155 +143 225035 036 019 000 00
195330 2722N 07614W 8429 01593 0132 +154 +145 226035 036 017 001 03
195400 2720N 07613W 8431 01590 0132 +154 +152 226032 033 018 000 00
195430 2719N 07612W 8426 01597 0129 +160 +140 222034 034 016 001 00
195500 2718N 07611W 8430 01593 0129 +164 +134 222035 035 015 000 00
195530 2717N 07609W 8428 01596 0131 +162 +135 221034 035 014 000 00
195600 2716N 07608W 8429 01595 0130 +160 +131 222035 035 013 000 03
195630 2715N 07606W 8430 01594 0130 +161 +125 220035 036 /// /// 03
195700 2716N 07604W 8429 01593 0129 +165 +124 215034 035 /// /// 03
195730 2718N 07604W 8430 01595 0132 +164 +124 214033 033 015 001 03
195800 2720N 07604W 8429 01595 0132 +163 +128 213033 033 015 002 00
195830 2721N 07604W 8432 01594 0133 +160 +131 211033 034 011 001 03
195900 2723N 07605W 8427 01599 0131 +164 +129 213034 034 017 000 00
195930 2725N 07605W 8430 01594 0132 +160 +139 212034 034 016 000 03
200000 2727N 07605W 8428 01596 0133 +159 +142 211034 034 018 000 00
200030 2729N 07605W 8429 01593 0128 +160 +140 207035 036 021 000 00
200100 2731N 07605W 8430 01593 0129 +159 +144 209034 035 021 001 00
200130 2733N 07605W 8428 01591 0129 +157 +149 209035 036 022 001 03
200200 2735N 07605W 8428 01593 0128 +158 +147 212036 036 022 000 00
200230 2737N 07605W 8428 01593 0127 +160 +148 211036 037 022 000 00
$$

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 182013
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 16 20110718
200300 2738N 07605W 8431 01589 0127 +160 +145 209038 039 022 000 00
200330 2740N 07604W 8429 01591 0127 +159 +137 209039 039 023 000 00
200400 2742N 07604W 8429 01589 0127 +155 +141 207038 038 023 001 00
200430 2744N 07604W 8430 01588 0127 +156 +140 206039 039 025 001 00
200500 2746N 07604W 8430 01586 0125 +160 +136 206039 039 024 001 00
200530 2748N 07604W 8428 01590 0126 +159 +137 203040 040 023 001 00
200600 2750N 07604W 8432 01585 0125 +159 +139 202040 040 026 000 00
200630 2752N 07604W 8429 01589 0125 +159 +138 201041 041 023 001 00
200700 2754N 07604W 8427 01589 0124 +161 +137 200041 041 023 001 00
200730 2756N 07604W 8429 01588 0120 +165 +132 198040 040 023 000 00
200800 2758N 07603W 8429 01588 0121 +163 +134 197040 040 023 001 00
200830 2800N 07603W 8428 01590 0128 +152 +150 193037 039 024 000 00
200900 2802N 07603W 8428 01588 0129 +150 //// 192036 037 019 000 05
200930 2804N 07603W 8429 01587 0128 +150 //// 190036 038 020 000 01
201000 2806N 07603W 8428 01589 0125 +153 +151 188038 039 019 000 00
201030 2808N 07603W 8430 01584 0125 +152 //// 189039 039 015 000 01
201100 2810N 07603W 8426 01589 0127 +152 +151 186037 038 009 000 00
201130 2812N 07603W 8429 01587 0128 +150 //// 185036 037 014 000 01
201200 2814N 07603W 8430 01585 0126 +150 +150 183036 036 015 000 00
201230 2816N 07602W 8428 01589 0127 +152 +149 182037 038 021 000 03
$$
;

[artist]

PRELIMINARY

000
URNT12 KNHC 181958
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022011
A. 18/19:29:50Z
B. 28 deg 09 min N
077 deg 04 min W
C. 850 mb 1406 m
D. 60 kt
E. 271 deg 11 nm
F. 005 deg 53 kt
G. 269 deg 10 nm
H. EXTRAP 998 mb
I. 15 C / 1536 m
J. 21 C / 1522 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 0 nm
P. AF307 0302A BRET OB 04
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT
MAX FL WIND 53 KT W QUAD 19:26:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 311 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[HURAKAN]

unfortunately I won't be able to stay for the entire mission

[jdray]

tight spin, warm waters, who woulda thunk it?


Go Bret Go. Then move NNE and miss everything.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 182023
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 17 20110718
201300 2818N 07602W 8429 01588 0125 +155 +149 180035 036 019 000 00
201330 2820N 07602W 8429 01588 0125 +157 +147 178035 035 022 000 00
201400 2822N 07602W 8433 01585 0128 +151 //// 174035 035 023 000 01
201430 2824N 07602W 8429 01588 0127 +154 +144 173035 035 023 001 00
201500 2825N 07602W 8430 01588 0128 +155 +144 171036 037 028 000 00
201530 2827N 07602W 8428 01591 0134 +146 //// 171036 037 026 004 01
201600 2829N 07602W 8431 01589 0143 +134 //// 167035 037 030 006 01
201630 2831N 07602W 8423 01594 //// +129 //// 164037 038 031 008 01
201700 2833N 07601W 8428 01591 //// +128 //// 168040 040 029 009 01
201730 2835N 07601W 8429 01590 0144 +133 //// 167039 041 027 006 01
201800 2837N 07601W 8433 01588 0139 +143 //// 164036 036 026 005 05
201830 2839N 07601W 8425 01595 0136 +145 //// 161033 035 025 004 01
201900 2841N 07601W 8433 01588 0136 +148 //// 164032 032 025 005 01
201930 2843N 07601W 8429 01594 0134 +154 +142 162032 032 024 004 00
202000 2845N 07601W 8426 01598 0137 +150 +148 161031 032 024 004 00
202030 2847N 07601W 8430 01594 0139 +147 //// 156030 031 024 004 01
202100 2849N 07601W 8428 01598 0141 +146 //// 157030 031 023 004 05
202130 2850N 07600W 8428 01596 0140 +147 //// 155032 032 022 005 01
202200 2852N 07600W 8430 01595 0138 +150 +150 154031 032 026 005 00
202230 2854N 07600W 8429 01598 0144 +144 //// 154032 033 022 006 01
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 182033
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 18 20110718
202300 2856N 07600W 8429 01598 0142 +147 //// 149032 032 021 001 01
202330 2858N 07600W 8429 01598 0141 +150 +138 137031 032 021 002 00
202400 2900N 07600W 8429 01599 0139 +154 +136 136030 031 017 001 00
202430 2902N 07600W 8433 01596 0138 +155 +137 134029 030 013 002 00
202500 2903N 07600W 8428 01601 0141 +155 +139 136029 029 015 001 00
202530 2905N 07600W 8428 01601 0142 +152 +140 136028 029 013 003 03
202600 2907N 07600W 8425 01605 0145 +147 +142 131026 026 /// /// 03
202630 2907N 07602W 8430 01599 0145 +148 +142 127024 024 012 004 03
202700 2906N 07604W 8429 01601 0141 +153 +137 126024 024 017 003 03
202730 2904N 07605W 8429 01599 0139 +155 +135 124024 025 014 001 00
202800 2903N 07606W 8429 01599 0140 +152 +140 125026 027 015 002 00
202830 2902N 07607W 8430 01595 0138 +153 +136 126028 028 020 004 00
202900 2901N 07608W 8429 01596 0138 +152 +129 126028 028 026 005 00
202930 2859N 07609W 8427 01596 0138 +148 +132 125025 025 028 008 03
203000 2858N 07611W 8429 01593 0141 +141 +136 124024 025 030 007 00
203030 2857N 07612W 8430 01592 0145 +135 //// 133024 024 031 007 01
203100 2856N 07613W 8429 01588 0140 +136 //// 131025 026 031 005 01
203130 2854N 07615W 8428 01589 0133 +145 //// 132026 026 029 003 01
203200 2853N 07616W 8426 01589 0130 +145 //// 134028 028 028 004 05
203230 2852N 07617W 8433 01582 0132 +142 //// 135028 028 030 004 01
$$

[HURAKAN]

[GCANE]

Another big hot tower going off on the southern side of the forming eyewall. This could become a hurricane while recon is out there.

Impressive

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 182043
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 19 20110718
203300 2851N 07619W 8429 01583 0126 +147 //// 133030 031 030 002 01
203330 2850N 07620W 8429 01582 0123 +150 +144 137029 030 029 002 00
203400 2849N 07621W 8429 01579 0122 +149 +146 145029 029 031 001 00
203430 2848N 07623W 8429 01577 0115 +155 +146 146027 028 029 002 00
203500 2846N 07624W 8428 01577 0116 +149 +148 148029 031 032 002 00
203530 2845N 07625W 8430 01574 0116 +148 //// 150034 036 032 003 01
203600 2845N 07625W 8430 01574 0113 +151 +148 146038 038 029 001 03
203630 2843N 07628W 8427 01577 0112 +151 //// 143036 037 030 000 01
203700 2842N 07629W 8424 01577 0109 +151 //// 143035 036 031 001 05
203730 2841N 07630W 8430 01568 0107 +152 +151 143035 036 031 000 03
203800 2840N 07632W 8429 01567 0104 +152 +147 144035 036 033 001 00
203830 2839N 07633W 8429 01565 0102 +152 +144 144036 036 034 000 03
203900 2838N 07634W 8430 01561 0096 +152 +145 139036 037 037 001 00
203930 2836N 07635W 8429 01556 0093 +150 +141 134038 040 037 002 00
204000 2835N 07637W 8426 01556 0084 +162 +132 135041 042 038 002 00
204030 2834N 07638W 8433 01544 0081 +159 +137 139046 047 039 001 03
204100 2833N 07639W 8436 01542 //// +135 //// 138044 045 042 007 05
204130 2832N 07641W 8443 01529 //// +139 //// 148043 047 044 009 05
204200 2831N 07642W 8410 01555 //// +134 //// 137050 054 041 010 01
204230 2830N 07644W 8406 01559 //// +146 //// 140056 060 043 007 05
$$
;

[brunota2003]

<snipped>
$$

To answer your questions regarding how to read the HDOBs:

Code: Select all

0         1         2         3         4         5         6         7
01234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
hhmmss LLLLH NNNNNW PPPP GGGGG XXXX sTTT sddd wwwSSS MMM KKK ppp FF
142230 2612N 08752W 7010 03057 9282 +102 +102 141153 166 148 999 00

hhmmss:
Observation time, in hours, minutes and seconds (UTC). The observation time is the midpoint of the 30-s averaging interval used for the record's meteorological data.

LLLLH:
The latitude of the aircraft at the observation time in degrees (LL) and minutes (LL). The hemisphere (H) is given as either N or S.

NNNNNH:
The longitude of the aircraft at the observation time, in degrees (NNN) and minutes (NN). The hemisphere (H) is given as either E or W.

PPPP:
Aircraft static air pressure, in tenths of mb with decimal omitted, at the observation time. If pressure is equal to or greater than 1000 mb the leading 1 is dropped.

GGGGG:
Aircraft geopotential height, in meters, at the observation time.

XXXX:
Extrapolated surface pressure or D-value (30-s average). Encoded as extrapolated surface pressure if aircraft static pressure is 550.0 mb or greater (i.e., flight altitudes at or below 550 mb). Format for extrapolated surface pressure is the same as for static pressure. For flight altitudes higher than 550 mb, XXXX is encoded as the D-value, in meters. Negative D-values are encoded by adding 5000 to the D-value.

s:
Sign of the temperature or dew point (+ or -).

sTTT:
The air temperature in degrees and tenths Celsius, decimal omitted (30-s average).

sddd:
The dew point temperature, in degrees and tenths Celsius, decimal omitted (30-s average).

www:
Wind direction in degrees (30-s average). North winds are coded as 000. 999 indicates missing value.

SSS:
Wind speed, in kt (30-s average). 999 indicates missing value.

MMM:
Maximum 10-second average wind speed occurring within the encoding interval, in kt. 999 indicates missing value.

KKK:
Maximum 10-second average surface wind speed occurring within the encoding interval from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), in kt. 999 indicates missing value.

ppp:
SFMR-derived rain rate, in mm hr-1, evaluated over the 10-s interval chosen for KKK . 999 indicates missing value.

FF:
Quality control flags.

    First column indicates status of positional variables as follows:
    0   All parameters of nominal accuracy
    1   Lat/lon questionable
    2   Geopotential altitude or static pressure questionable
    3   Both lat/lon and GA/PS questionable

    Second column indicates status of meteorological variables as follows:
    0   All parameters of nominal accuracy
    1   T or TD questionable
    2   Flight-level winds questionable
    3   SFMR parameter(s) questionable
    4   T/TD and FL winds questionable
    5   T/TD and SFMR questionable
    6   FL winds and SFMR questionable
    9   T/TD, FL winds, and SFMR questionable

Source:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml

[HURAKAN]

657
URNT12 KNHC 182041
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022011
A. 18/19:29:50Z
B. 28 deg 09 min N
077 deg 04 min W
C. 850 mb 1406 m
D. 60 kt
E. 271 deg 11 nm
F. 005 deg 53 kt
G. 269 deg 10 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 16 C / 1530 m
J. 21 C / 1522 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. OPEN N-E-S
M. C18
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 0302A BRET OB 04
MAX FL WIND 53 KT W QUAD 19:26:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 62 KT SE QUAD 19:39:10Z
;

[artist]

[HURAKAN]

[Riptide]

Any reason why the BAM models are consistently west of the mean model track?

[wxman57]

55 kts at 21Z but a forecast of only 5 more knots (60 kts) tomorrow? We'll see...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
500 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A RAGGED EYE-LIKE
FEATURE...SUGGESTING THAT SOME INTENSIFICATION HAD TAKEN PLACE.
THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT. USING A BLEND OF PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL...SFMR...AND
DROPSONDE WIND SPEED MEASUREMENTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT
55 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO BRET HAS A NARROW WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE BEFORE REACHING A LESS
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...AND IT COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY
EARLY TOMORROW OR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...IVCN.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES GIVE A MOTION ESTIMATE OF AROUND 030/6.
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. BRET SHOULD BE
STEERED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD ACCELERATE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES
MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE NHC
FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN...AND SLIGHTLY
TO THE LEFT OF...THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE
LATEST ECMWF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 28.3N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 29.2N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 30.4N 75.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 31.5N 74.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 33.0N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 35.5N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 39.0N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 43.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH