ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Macrocane]

Bret is not wasting its time, this is a very interesting little system, it had very little model support but it may become a hurricane. I wonder if it has caused any problems in the northern Bahamas.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 182053
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 20 20110718
204300 2829N 07645W 8399 01557 //// +148 //// 131055 059 044 009 05
204330 2828N 07646W 8429 01528 //// +148 //// 139051 054 046 007 01
204400 2827N 07648W 8414 01535 //// +155 //// 138042 044 048 006 05
204430 2826N 07649W 8415 01528 0033 +156 //// 137037 040 049 006 01
204500 2825N 07650W 8409 01526 0024 +164 //// 136031 032 048 004 01
204530 2823N 07652W 8421 01510 0013 +173 +170 137033 034 045 003 00
204600 2822N 07653W 8405 01516 0006 +167 //// 127027 029 042 003 01
204630 2821N 07654W 8408 01507 9996 +174 //// 109019 021 035 002 01
204700 2820N 07655W 8421 01490 9989 +181 +169 107016 017 025 002 03
204730 2818N 07656W 8407 01504 9978 +196 +155 144009 013 016 000 03
204800 2817N 07657W 8412 01496 9972 +207 +140 241009 012 013 000 03
204830 2815N 07657W 8412 01503 9978 +205 +139 261013 013 012 000 03
204900 2813N 07657W 8408 01510 9987 +197 +146 259012 014 006 000 03
204930 2812N 07658W 8412 01507 9998 +180 +158 290014 015 012 000 03
205000 2811N 07659W 8418 01501 9997 +180 +162 308023 027 015 001 03
205030 2809N 07700W 8408 01515 0005 +174 +166 296026 029 023 002 03
205100 2807N 07659W 8383 01548 0010 +181 +157 260037 043 025 003 03
205130 2806N 07700W 8382 01554 0014 +183 +154 267044 045 027 000 03
205200 2805N 07701W 8431 01509 0015 +192 +153 272047 048 029 000 00
205230 2804N 07701W 8434 01507 0013 +202 +148 273049 049 034 000 03
$$
;

[artist]

Any reason why the BAM models are consistently west of the mean model track?

Riptide, the Bam models are good for the deep tropics - such as over near the east islands, etc. They just don't do well in this part of the Atlantic.

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Okay...I didn't think Bret would even come close to a pretty good intensity run...but starting at about 11 am to 12 pm EDT...my indicator did pop up, but it was a weakish signature. So, judging by that, the very warm waters, and apparently it getting it's act together as we speak, I believe it will jump about 20 to 25 knots in wind speed within the next 12 to 18 hours. Things possibly going against intensification are the lack of very deep convection and increasing wind shear soon. However, since the inner core is small and fairly organized (Recon reported a circular eye, but the eyewall was open), I believe it could reach 70 or 75 knots before the shear arrives and tears it apart.

[HURAKAN]

[JonathanBelles]

55 kts at 21Z but a forecast of only 5 more knots (60 kts) tomorrow? We'll see...

I agree. I'm a bit surprised they did not forecast a hurricane. It seems to be wrapping up quite nicely as a little system. At this rate, a hurricane is possible before 11pm.

[HURAKAN]

[Bobo2000]

for right now, i think the probably should put it up to 60 knots. Looking like a hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

for right now, i think the probably should put it up to 60 knots. Looking like a hurricane.

RECON is inside it and it's not a hurricane yet

[artist]

I missed 21, sorry
Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT15 KNHC 182113
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 22 20110718
210300 2744N 07729W 8426 01584 0119 +155 +146 313026 027 024 001 00
210330 2743N 07730W 8429 01583 0123 +152 +144 315028 029 022 000 00
210400 2743N 07732W 8434 01579 0119 +165 +121 305027 028 021 000 03
210430 2742N 07733W 8429 01585 0120 +165 +121 310026 026 022 000 03
210500 2741N 07735W 8430 01585 0121 +165 +122 313026 026 017 000 03
210530 2740N 07736W 8429 01586 0122 +163 +124 314026 026 019 000 03
210600 2739N 07738W 8428 01589 0123 +160 +124 319024 024 017 000 03
210630 2738N 07739W 8428 01590 0124 +162 +123 323024 024 015 000 03
210700 2737N 07741W 8428 01590 0125 +161 +123 328023 023 015 000 00
210730 2736N 07742W 8432 01586 0126 +160 +125 330023 023 009 000 00
210800 2735N 07743W 8430 01590 0129 +160 +129 330025 025 007 000 03
210830 2733N 07745W 8429 01591 0130 +158 +132 327025 025 007 000 00
210900 2732N 07746W 8428 01594 0130 +156 +134 327024 025 004 000 03
210930 2731N 07747W 8430 01593 0133 +155 +133 325023 024 004 000 03
211000 2730N 07749W 8424 01597 0131 +157 +131 322024 024 002 000 03
211030 2729N 07750W 8431 01591 0131 +159 +133 324024 025 /// /// 03
211100 2728N 07752W 8429 01594 0133 +158 +135 328024 025 /// /// 03
211130 2726N 07753W 8429 01595 0134 +158 +135 326024 025 /// /// 03
211200 2725N 07754W 8429 01595 0134 +160 +132 320023 023 /// /// 03
211230 2724N 07756W 8430 01594 0132 +162 +131 318021 023 /// /// 03
$$
;




will try to find 21

[artist]

URNT12 KNHC 182114
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022011
A. 18/20:47:40Z
B. 28 deg 18 min N
076 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1410 m
D. 49 kt
E. 043 deg 10 nm
F. 143 deg 60 kt
G. 046 deg 16 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 16 C / 1517 m
J. 21 C / 1536 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C16
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0302A BRET OB 09
MAX FL WIND 62 KT SE QUAD 19:39:10Z
;

[brunota2003]

EDIT: to remove duplicate.

Notice the eyewall is only open to the south now, and there is a nice difference between I. (temp outside eyewall) and J. (temp inside eye). 5C difference.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 182103
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 21 20110718
205300 2802N 07702W 8424 01522 0019 +199 +146 275049 051 045 002 03
205330 2801N 07703W 8422 01533 0040 +180 +153 277052 055 050 004 03
205400 2800N 07704W 8432 01529 0053 +168 +163 282051 053 045 001 03
205430 2800N 07704W 8432 01529 0065 +165 //// 293046 050 040 002 05
205500 2758N 07706W 8434 01543 0073 +165 +164 298041 042 034 001 03
205530 2757N 07707W 8429 01551 0075 +167 +153 301041 041 036 000 03
205600 2756N 07709W 8428 01555 0078 +169 +151 306039 040 036 000 00
205630 2756N 07711W 8430 01555 0081 +169 +150 311039 040 036 000 03
205700 2755N 07712W 8432 01557 0082 +173 +150 312038 038 035 000 03
205730 2755N 07714W 8432 01557 0081 +179 +143 307036 036 034 000 03
205800 2754N 07715W 8424 01569 0090 +170 +140 310036 037 033 000 03
205830 2754N 07717W 8429 01567 0095 +167 +134 315037 038 032 001 03
205900 2753N 07718W 8429 01568 0097 +167 +136 314034 035 031 000 03
205930 2752N 07720W 8429 01572 0102 +163 +140 314034 035 026 000 03
210000 2751N 07721W 8429 01572 0106 +158 +149 317031 031 026 000 03
210030 2750N 07722W 8430 01573 0113 +150 //// 319030 032 022 001 01
210100 2748N 07723W 8429 01574 0115 +146 //// 323027 029 025 001 01
210130 2747N 07725W 8431 01578 0119 +146 //// 313027 028 025 000 05
210200 2746N 07726W 8429 01578 0116 +152 //// 311028 030 025 003 01
210230 2745N 07727W 8429 01582 0120 +154 //// 312023 025 024 000 01
$$
;



missing 21

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 182123
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 23 20110718
211300 2723N 07757W 8428 01596 0134 +160 +133 308020 020 /// /// 03
211330 2721N 07756W 8429 01596 0136 +158 +136 304019 019 /// /// 03
211400 2721N 07754W 8430 01596 0138 +155 +138 306019 019 /// /// 03
211430 2721N 07752W 8429 01595 0134 +157 +135 307020 021 /// /// 03
211500 2721N 07750W 8429 01593 0132 +160 +134 303020 021 /// /// 03
211530 2721N 07748W 8429 01593 0130 +157 +136 305021 021 /// /// 03
211600 2721N 07746W 8428 01594 0128 +159 +134 305022 022 /// /// 03
211630 2721N 07744W 8432 01589 0127 +160 +132 311022 022 /// /// 03
211700 2722N 07742W 8426 01594 0127 +160 +132 311021 022 /// /// 03
211730 2722N 07740W 8428 01593 0126 +161 +131 306020 021 /// /// 03
211800 2722N 07738W 8425 01594 0127 +160 +132 302021 022 /// /// 03
211830 2722N 07736W 8429 01590 0125 +164 +129 300021 021 /// /// 03
211900 2722N 07734W 8429 01589 0125 +161 +127 300022 022 /// /// 03
211930 2722N 07732W 8430 01588 0124 +163 +125 298021 021 /// /// 03
212000 2723N 07730W 8430 01586 0123 +165 +127 299021 021 /// /// 03
212030 2723N 07728W 8429 01588 0122 +165 +126 297021 021 /// /// 03
212100 2723N 07726W 8430 01586 0120 +166 +124 294022 022 /// /// 03
212130 2723N 07724W 8429 01588 0120 +170 +122 291022 022 /// /// 03
212200 2723N 07722W 8429 01588 0120 +170 +122 287022 022 /// /// 03
212230 2723N 07719W 8430 01586 0117 +170 +121 283022 023 /// /// 03
$$
;

[brunota2003]

Recon is prepping to make a run from the SE to the NW...will the winds be higher this time around than last time? We'll see in another 20 to 30 minutes.

[WxEnthus]

I can take over GE images & vortex if you need to go Hurakan, just let me know.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 182133
AF307 0302A BRET HDOB 24 20110718
212300 2724N 07717W 8428 01588 0115 +170 +120 281023 024 /// /// 03
212330 2724N 07715W 8429 01585 0115 +171 +118 280024 025 /// /// 03
212400 2724N 07713W 8430 01584 0115 +174 +119 279025 026 /// /// 03
212430 2724N 07711W 8430 01583 0113 +171 +119 280027 027 /// /// 03
212500 2724N 07709W 8429 01583 0112 +174 +117 280028 028 /// /// 03
212530 2724N 07707W 8429 01583 0112 +170 +117 278028 028 /// /// 03
212600 2725N 07705W 8428 01584 0112 +170 +118 275029 029 /// /// 03
212630 2725N 07703W 8431 01582 0115 +170 +121 271028 028 /// /// 03
212700 2725N 07701W 8430 01583 0115 +169 +121 269028 028 /// /// 03
212730 2725N 07659W 8429 01583 0114 +169 +121 268028 029 /// /// 03
212800 2725N 07656W 8428 01584 0115 +170 +120 265029 029 /// /// 03
212830 2725N 07654W 8429 01583 0115 +166 +120 265029 030 /// /// 03
212900 2726N 07652W 8430 01582 0115 +166 +121 264030 030 /// /// 03
212930 2726N 07650W 8426 01586 0115 +167 +120 262030 030 /// /// 03
213000 2726N 07648W 8429 01583 0116 +170 +119 261030 031 /// /// 03
213030 2726N 07646W 8428 01585 0116 +167 +123 256031 032 /// /// 03
213100 2726N 07644W 8430 01582 0114 +165 +126 252032 032 014 001 03
213130 2726N 07641W 8429 01583 0113 +170 +123 249031 031 017 000 03
213200 2727N 07639W 8430 01582 0112 +168 +125 248031 031 014 000 00
213230 2727N 07637W 8428 01583 0111 +171 +126 245031 031 019 000 03
$$
;

[KWT]

55 kts at 21Z but a forecast of only 5 more knots (60 kts) tomorrow? We'll see...

I agree. I'm a bit surprised they did not forecast a hurricane. It seems to be wrapping up quite nicely as a little system. At this rate, a hurricane is possible before 11pm.

Yeah its clearly tightening up nicely, NHC being very conservative with only a forecast of 60kts as noted Wxman57 given its presentation, odds of it being stronger seems quite good at the moment.

Looking very good, sure looks like its making a run for hurricane status, its a classic NE moving system, so many times I've seen similar systems strengthen beyond what was expected when moving away from America to the NE.

[artist]

I can take over GE images & vortex if you need to go Hurakan, just let me know.

could you? It appears he must have had to leave as it shows him off line.
Thank you!

[HURAKAN]

I can take over GE images & vortex if you need to go Hurakan, just let me know.

could you? It appears he must have had to leave as it shows him off line.
Thank you!

I'm back, sorry