Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

[NDG]

This is the tropical wave that the ecmwf was forecasting to develope on a couple of its runs a couple of days ago.
Since then it has backed off but it still shows a mod to strong vorticity to come across the northern Windward and Leeward Islands by Friday night into P.R. by Saturday night, continuing WNW into S FL by next Wednesday night.

[GCANE]

MIMIC-TPW at 35W looks good.

Cresting feature, CCW rotation, and convergence.

[cycloneye]

They are not too enthusiastic with it yet.

8 AM TWD:

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 7N33W 17N35W
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE IN
A CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
4N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W.

[RL3AO]

Something to watch. 35W wave is the best of the season so far.

[cycloneye]

This discussion is from Crownweather services by our friend Rob Lightbown,and by the way,he is a member of our board.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Tropical Wave In The Eastern Atlantic Near 35 West Longitude:
I am keeping very close tabs on a tropical wave that is located near 35 West Longitude in the eastern Atlantic this morning. Satellite imagery this morning shows some signs of organization, however, this tropical wave lacks deep convection at this time. Latest indications are that the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) will head east and may have some influence in causing this tropical wave to organize further as it tracks westward over the coming days. Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for development over the coming days and this is a disturbance that should be monitored closely.

The latest global model guidance reveals that only the Canadian model forecasts tropical cyclone development from this wave. The European model has backed off on forecasting development and the GFS and NOGAPS models forecast no development from this tropical wave. Given that this tropical wave shows some signs of organization, I will be watching this system closely even though the model guidance says no to development.

As for a track, this tropical wave is forecast to track westward over the next few days and is expected to affect the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands from late Friday through Saturday with heavy rainfall and gusty winds. From there, this tropical wave is currently forecast to track across the Bahamas early next week and would bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall to the Bahamas during the early part of next week.

[jhpigott]

this the wave we talking about one round 30w? how shear ahead of it ? and Africa dust?

What is up with the feature at 65? Any chance for development?

[cycloneye]

What is up with the feature at 65? Any chance for development?

That is related to interaction between an upper level low and a tropical wave.

[Blown Away]

Looks like alot of dust around this wave?

[Javlin]

Definitily a very broad circulation out there @35' kinda early for a CV buy you never know.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

[RL3AO]

Looks like alot of dust around this wave?

Not too bad considering its July.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If this does get organized, it looks like it will be a big one. Actually, because of such a broad area that would need to get its act together, this is less likely to develop in my opinion unless all the synoptics in the area are just right. Any shear, and forget it.

[GCANE]

[JonathanBelles]

Seems more like the first suicide wave to me, but we'll see if it can get itself together closer to the Caribbean.

[SouthFloridawx]

I was going to say that it looks like dust/dry air have kept convection from going. That being said, looking at the SAL map from CIMSS... SAL is not too overbearing. I've seen it a lot worse. Maybe conditions will be favorable in the next few days. It does have a lot of spin already.

[cycloneye]

You can clearly see the spin. Will NHC use the yellow crayon this afternoon or evening?

[Blown Away]

Nice curvature, lots of dry air/dust.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[RL3AO]

You can clearly see the spin. Will NHC use the yellow crayon this afternoon or evening?

Not yet. I don't think it has any chance to develop in the next 48 hours.

[wxman57]

Certainly no CV storm here, just a strong wave with development potential down the road (4-7 days), maybe.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC starts to do a little bit of development with this wave north of Hispanola.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Ellsey]

Sorry if this is a noob question, but is CV season talking about when Cape Verde? When you start watching the waves coming off Africa? That's always my husband's favorite time of year. He used to live in Praia, Cape Verde. He said it was almost constantly cloudy around this time of year.