EPAC: DORA - Remnants

[KWT]

Looks like a warm spot is developing there as the eyewall continues to wrap round.

Won't be long till we have a hurricane...

[HURAKAN]

12z

EP, 04, 2011071912, , BEST, 0, 116N, 964W, 55, 996, TS

no change at 12z

[plasticup]

The sun is rising over Dora. We'll have the day's first visible images shortly.

In the IR it looks like she is trying to see. Dora the Explorer indeed.

[HURAKAN]

looks like a hurricane

[plasticup]

Is that an eye clearing out?

[Yellow Evan]

Dora has not changed much over the past several hours and there is no need to update my forecast till the new adv comes out in 15 mins. Anyway, I hope the NHC goes with 65 knts at 8.

[Yellow Evan]

Starting to look a lot like a hurricane. It's now adv time.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...DORA NEARLY A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 97.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DORA IS STRENGTHENING. THE INFRARED
AND VISIBLE CHANNELS BOTH SUGGEST THAT A RAGGED EYE IS ATTEMPTING
TO FORM...WITH A SIMILAR STRUCTURE NOTED ON MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 60 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT
TREND OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
FORECAST TO FORM NEAR DORA AND VERY WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE CONSIDERABLE
STRENGTHENING...AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER EDGE OF
THE GUIDANCE SUITE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE GFDL MODEL PREDICTION.
IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...DORA SHOULD REACH COOLER WATER...AND BEGIN A
PRECIPITOUS DECLINE.

THE STORM HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 13 KT. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER TODAY DUE TO THE
WEAKENING OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. IN A
FEW DAYS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE TO THE
EAST...WHICH COULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE
GFDL/HWRF DO SHOW A SLIGHT THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE LONG
RANGE. FOR NOW THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE THAT KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES SUGGEST SOME
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS DORA PASSES. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT TRACK
AND SIZE FORECAST DOES NOT WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES AND/OR
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 11.9N 97.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 12.6N 99.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 13.7N 101.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 15.0N 104.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 16.1N 105.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 18.1N 108.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 20.0N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 22.0N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[plasticup]

Forecast is now up to 125 mph. That is very impressive! Bret seems to be getting all of the attention right now, but I think Dora is a far more interesting system.

[WmE]

That's T4.0 or even T4.5. That's a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

NHC just does not want to make this storm a hurricane.

[KWT]

Sure does look like a hurricane at the moment, still I can't imagine it'll be long before the NHC upgrades the system.

[Macrocane]

Maybe a special advisory in the next couple of hours or at least an Update statement.

[RL3AO]

Forecast is now up to 125 mph. That is very impressive! Bret seems to be getting all of the attention right now, but I think Dora is a far more interesting system.

Weak TS in atlantic always gets more attention then a cat 5 in the pacific.

[cycloneye]

Maybe a special advisory in the next couple of hours or at least an Update statement.

Is a real possibility.

[HURAKAN]

I wouldn't discount an special advisory before the next one in 5 hours, but since it's not a threat to land, it can wait.

[Yellow Evan]

Forecast is now up to 125 mph. That is very impressive! Bret seems to be getting all of the attention right now, but I think Dora is a far more interesting system.

Weak TS in atlantic always gets more attention then a cat 5 in the pacific.

Bret should not, it a weak epic fail right now. I don't get why people don't like tracking powerful hurricanes that go out to sea in the EPAC, and like track borderline fishspinners that are weak TS's in the Atlantic.

[plasticup]

I wouldn't discount an special advisory before the next one in 5 hours, but since it's not a threat to land, it can wait.

They have been pretty free the with Update Statements recently, when a storm makes a big change just after an advisory. I expect they'll publish again soon.

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave, looking good