Fizzling

[zoeyann]

It seems to me that these waves are looking impressive coming off the African coast, and models indicate that they all have the potential to develop, but they all seem to have a difficult time energizing. Why? It seems at this time of the year they would be getting fired up.

[Steve H.]

Maybe dyno-mat. Don't really know....it is puzzling though. Let's give it more time, but it does look like the convection to the sw is running ahead of the low and the system is splitting. Let's see how the eastern portion of the low fairs when it moves further off the coast. How come no Invest on the wave/ow in the Caribbean Are they a little gun shy

[Guest]

I said this this morning. The environment isn't conducive for development.

Perhaps we don't know all there is to know about weather.

[chadtm80]

Could be another "factor" we are un-aware of that we may find out about down the road a ways... But I still think we are A-O-K... Still plenty of season left to go

[Guest]

I agree Chad - but sometimes we have to use the elment of unknown into forcasting the weather because we still don't know all of what makes it tick.

[chadtm80]

And we probibly never will... You cant out smart mother nature

[Guest]

Exactly.

[cycloneye]

Mother nature has the mind of it's own that man can't control despite the ultimate technology of the 21st century.

[JCT777]

Top 5 reasons the tropical Atlantic Storms have been fizzling after looking so promising:

5) Mike Seidel took a cruise through the tropical Atlantic so he could be "on the scene" when something developed, which of course is the kiss of death for any storm

4) Rainstorm paid Mother Nature to squash any storm that was not headed directly toward Virginia Beach

3) The LC (Larry Cosgrove) jinx. In his daily newsletter, he keeps writing that the Atlantic tropics are always only a few days away from being very active.

2) The snow lovers in the mid-atlantic and northeast had such a wonderful winter that the tropics lovers are paying for it

1) "Poof the Magic Dragon" keeps eating all the developing tropical waves

[deb_in_nc]

I'm beginning to think they're true, too.

Debbie

[Tip]

This fizzling idea is ridiculous. You must take climatology into consideration. First of all we have had FIVE named storms with one, Claudette being a long tracker. I dare say this is ahead of the average year. Second to get a long track storm from Cape Verde doesn't usually happen til sometime after August 21. Last year nothing happened til after August 29 with the Cape Verde season long track. Check the chart for Dolly. And third they are a relatively rare event on average in any year.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html


Even the super year of 1995 didn't have a long tracker til August 22

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

The factor is climatology.

[zoeyann]

Tip, we are still having an above average season but my thinking is this-some of these waves look wonderful and then they just die like someone just shut off the power. I was just wondering what is missing in the atmospere to provide the energy.

[Tip]

So far this year, I think most of the storms really haven't had a prime environment with little or no shear and a high pressure directly over the storm, ventilation in all four quadrants, except with Claudette as it was on the coast of Texas. One thing is for sure the sea surface temps aren't a problem.

[rainstorm]

upper temps are too cool

[Stormsfury]

upper temps are too cool

What?

[DelStormLover]

Tropics cancel ok.