Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

Sorry if this is a noob question, but is CV season talking about when Cape Verde? When you start watching the waves coming off Africa? That's always my husband's favorite time of year. He used to live in Praia, Cape Verde. He said it was almost constantly cloudy around this time of year.

Yes,Cape Verde islands are the ones that are always referred as the area where the tropical waves move off Africa and later if conditions are favorable,start to organize and develop.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro jumps back on board..out to 144 hours so far

Could develop before hitting the NE Islands

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[Ivanhater]

72 hours

[Ivanhater]

Ukie is sniffing it out as well

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[ronjon]

Michael, 12Z Euro brings low pressure into S FL in 10 days. Too far out for track, but Euro and CMC on the same page with potential development of the 35W wave.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html

[Ivanhater]

Michael, 12Z Euro brings low pressure into S FL in 10 days. Too far out for track, but Euro and CMC on the same page with potential development of the 35W wave.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html

Yep Ron...take a look at the long range 12z Canadian.

Develops it into a pretty strong system but curves it out to sea. Not interested in track that far out but it is interesting.

[ronjon]

It's way out there, but 12Z euro builds massive ridging over the Atlantic in the 7-10 day time frame. Have to watch the model trends over the next few days to see if that's confirmed. Any support from the ensembles?

[wxman57]

It definitely has a classic pre-TC development look on the MIMIC-TPW loop:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Good rotation and copious moisture. SSTs warm as it moves west. Could be a development threat in 2-3 days. Possibly a threat to the southeast U.S. next week.

[SFLcane]

With plenty of trofiness over the southern u.s. i'd think any cv storm trying to make the long trek will probably recurve.

[PTrackerLA]

Like wxman said definitely has the "look" on the CIMSS. I'll be watching this one closely!

[HURAKAN]

HPC in 7 days ... needs to be taken with a grain of salt!

[KWT]

Interesting, it reminds me somewhat of Dolly from 2008...I think this is our first real candidate from Africa...

Then again could easily just turn into another Bonnie 2010...

[NDG]

12z ECMWF shows almost perfect upper level conditions for this tropical wave as it nears the northern Windward and or Leeward Islands Saturday morning.
With strong H85 vorticity and a sharp trough.

[gatorcane]

It definitely has a classic pre-TC development look on the MIMIC-TPW loop:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Good rotation and copious moisture. SSTs warm as it moves west. Could be a development threat in 2-3 days. Possibly a threat to the southeast U.S. next week.

Will be watching this for sure. Haven't had a lot of time to scope out the steering currents and models on this but will start doing so.

What I can see from the models so far is that CMC/Euro are trying to recurve in the long-range already...with the Euro clipping South Florida but as a weaker system. CMC has a deeper system and recurves it.

Of course this is so far out and we don't even have a system yet. So mere speculation at this point.

[BigA]

18Z NOGAPS, quite fallible of course, is also a-go.



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[Blown Away]

12z ECMWF shows almost perfect upper level conditions for this tropical wave as it nears the northern Windward and or Leeward Islands Saturday morning.
With strong H85 vorticity and a sharp trough.

How do you read "sharp trough?"

[cycloneye]

The pouches are back!. This wave is PO7L. This study group of the waves have been doing good research on the waves for the past few years.

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P07L.html


P07L
13N, 34W
700hPa


ECMWF: It takes 24 hours to get a pouch, but then P07L maintains itself until at least 120 hours, but it does not intensify like UKMET.

GFS: A distinct, large pouch at analysis. As other models have been suggesting, a secondary OW max develops on the eastern side of the pouch at 24 hours. While other models intensify that as the main pouch center, it is only temporary for GFS. GFS continues to hold to its story of the initial western pouch maintaining itself, although as a weakening pouch that moves southwest and then northwest into the Caribbean.

UKMET: The secondary OW max development now occurs quickly at 12 hours. P07L then intensifies into, most likely, a tropical storm.

NOGAPS: The secondary eastern development occurs at 24 hours. Unlike UKMET, NOGAPS then dissipates P07L.

[ronjon]

12z Euro ensemble model shows extensive ridging building in the western Atlantic in the 8-10 day time frame. If this happens, (a big if this far out), recurve in the open atlantic looks less likely with the wave near 35W.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfenstropical500mbSLP216.gif

[Ivanhater]

I see that Ron, but ridging is much weaker on the ensemble and operational prior to 216 hours. If this develops earlier on it could find the weakness. Canadian ensembles have a weakness prior to 200 hours but quickly build the ridge back in similar to the Euro. The UKMET which develops this into a TS has a stronger ridge through 120 hours. As, always, this will depend on timing and when it develops. All just speculation this far out

[Vortex]

Got my eye on it.....Bring on the 00z models...