ATL: CINDY - Remnants - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
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invest_al992011.invest
FSTDA
R
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201107192139
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2011, DB, O, 2011071918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992011
AL, 99, 2011071818, , BEST, 0, 327N, 683W, 20, 1016, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011071900, , BEST, 0, 329N, 674W, 20, 1016, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011071906, , BEST, 0, 332N, 665W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011071912, , BEST, 0, 334N, 655W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2011071918, , BEST, 0, 332N, 643W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 90, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[HURAKAN]

WHXX01 KWBC 192141
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2141 UTC TUE JUL 19 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110719 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110719 1800 110720 0600 110720 1800 110721 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.2N 64.3W 34.1N 61.0W 34.8N 57.8W 35.5N 54.7W
BAMD 33.2N 64.3W 33.6N 59.7W 35.2N 55.1W 37.3N 51.0W
BAMM 33.2N 64.3W 34.0N 60.4W 35.0N 56.7W 36.3N 53.3W
LBAR 33.2N 64.3W 33.8N 61.2W 35.2N 58.3W 37.4N 55.5W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110721 1800 110722 1800 110723 1800 110724 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 36.3N 51.4W 37.7N 45.4W 39.2N 40.5W 42.7N 35.3W
BAMD 39.2N 46.5W 39.4N 39.5W 38.4N 37.9W 38.3N 38.3W
BAMM 37.4N 49.5W 38.7N 42.8W 39.6N 38.3W 42.3N 34.8W
LBAR 39.8N 51.8W 45.8N 42.2W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 47KTS 35KTS 33KTS 0KTS
DSHP 47KTS 35KTS 33KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.2N LONCUR = 64.3W DIRCUR = 85DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 33.2N LONM12 = 66.5W DIRM12 = 72DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 32.7N LONM24 = 68.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[somethingfunny]

Is this the eastern Atlantic wave?

[HURAKAN]

Is this the eastern Atlantic wave?

No, a low pressure to the northeast of Bermuda

[Ivanhater]

The low pressure to the NE of Bret I believe

[brunota2003]

Interesting...a surprise area, certainly.

[KWT]

honestly it does kinda look something is trying to develop there, it did look a little suspect. Either way its one step ahead of Bret when it comes to oblivion...

[Ivanhater]

[HURAKAN]

track

[Macrocane]

I hadn't noticed this system but certainly it looks interesting, it looks a little better than Bret right now

[BigB0882]

That thing looks like it is booking it and will be gone in a matter of hours

[plasticup]

Looks like its peak has already passed, although in post-season analysis they may find that it made it to TS strength. It certainly looks like it had good surface rotation before the convection decoupled.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BRET...LOCATED ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH TOWARD COOLER WATER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

not a bad looking disturbance but the window of opportunity for development is quite small

[HURAKAN]

vorticity is pretty deep

[Cainer]

Reminds me of 2006, when Beryl and an unnamed TS spawned from the same front in this general area around the same time of year. If it develops, that is.

[HURAKAN]

Things I will be looking tomorrow morning ... how organized is the LLC and the intensity and persistence of the convection ... not looking that bad tonight!

[HURAKAN]

WHXX01 KWBC 200209
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0209 UTC WED JUL 20 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992011) 20110720 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110720 0000 110720 1200 110721 0000 110721 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.1N 61.8W 34.0N 58.6W 34.9N 55.6W 35.8N 52.2W
BAMD 33.1N 61.8W 33.9N 57.0W 35.9N 52.7W 38.4N 48.5W
BAMM 33.1N 61.8W 34.1N 57.8W 35.6N 54.2W 37.4N 50.4W
LBAR 33.1N 61.8W 33.9N 58.5W 35.5N 55.3W 38.0N 52.4W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110722 0000 110723 0000 110724 0000 110725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 36.9N 48.4W 39.4N 41.5W 43.1N 34.2W 46.6N 25.3W
BAMD 40.7N 43.9W 43.8N 35.9W 47.2N 26.2W 46.0N 17.0W
BAMM 39.1N 45.9W 42.5N 37.8W 47.1N 28.5W 48.0N 17.5W
LBAR 40.6N 48.4W 46.5N 39.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 42KTS 25KTS 0KTS
DSHP 54KTS 42KTS 25KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.1N LONCUR = 61.8W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 33.4N LONM12 = 65.5W DIRM12 = 89DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 32.9N LONM24 = 67.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


For some reason, SHIPS really likes this system! lol

[MGC]

Does look better than Bret.....MGC

[HURAKAN]

Does look better than Bret.....MGC

I'm just not sure that the LLC is as organized as Bret's ... typically visible images help a lot!!