EPAC: DORA - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

Just a couple thoughts.

Reminds me of Jimena 09 in that sense.

[cycloneye]

Dora becomes a hurricane

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DORA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...DORA BECOMES A HURRICANE...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 99.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.9 WEST. DORA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF DORA SHOULD MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DORA COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WITHIN THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2011

SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A RAGGED EYE BECAME APPARENT IN
INFRARED AND LATE-AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT
AMSR-E AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOWED A BROKEN EYEWALL
THAT APPEARS TO BE CONTRACTING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO 65 KT. THEREFORE...DORA
IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE...THE FOURTH OF THE 2011 EASTERN
PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT TRAVERSES WARM WATER AND REMAINS IN A LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS NHC DISCUSSION...RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS
SHOWING ABOUT A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN AT THE
UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 72
HOURS...AS DORA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

DORA CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD IN 24-36 HOURS...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER 48
HOURS...THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INCREASES WITH SEVERAL
MODELS SHOWING A POTENTIAL THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MOST
RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS HAVE ALL SHIFTED
EASTWARD IN THE LONGER RANGE. IN RESPONSE...THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS
ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THEREFORE...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LAZARO
CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 13.4N 99.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 14.4N 101.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 15.7N 104.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 16.8N 105.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 17.9N 107.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 20.0N 109.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 22.0N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 23.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[plasticup]

That makes the EPac four for four. Everything is developing this year!

[RL3AO]

Best track shows hurricane at 00Z:
EP, 04, 2011072000, , BEST, 0, 131N, 993W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 20, 1010, 180, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DORA, D,
Latest microwave shows developing eyewall:

Latest SAB Dvorak estimate is at 4.0/65kt:
EP, 04, 201107192315, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1310N, 9920W, , 1, 65, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, JN, VI, 1, 4040 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=4.0 BO EYE MET=4.0 PT=4.0 FTBO DT

That was 20z

This is 0030z.

[brunota2003]

My guess about it starting this morning busted...the inner core took longer than expected to organize, though there was a decent increase in wind speed from yesterday to today. Definitely will see an increase in winds tonight, and if that eyewall completely forms, could very well witness an RI episode tonight into tomorrow.

[Hurricane Jed]

6 hurricanes in a row is the record. That was in 1966. Just in case anyone is interested.

[cycloneye]

Here they are. Will 2011 reach that? Only time will tell.

Code: Select all

1 Hurricane ADELE  20-24 JUN  75  -  1   
2 Hurricane BLANCA  3-12 AUG  75  -  1   
3 Hurricane CONNIE  8-17 AUG  75  -  1   
4 Hurricane DOLORES  16-25 AUG  75  -  1   
5 Hurricane EILEEN  23-29 AUG  75  -  1   
6 Hurricane FRANCESCA  6-16 SEP  75  -  1   


[HURAKAN]

Anything in the EPAC before the NHC took over needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Just to let your know. The NHC took over the basin in 1988. Hopefully, someday there will be a reanalysis for this area like we're doing in the Atlantic.

Doesn't it look weird that the intensity of all 6 hurricanes is 75 knots? lol

[KWT]

Definitely will see an increase in winds tonight, and if that eyewall completely forms, could very well witness an RI episode tonight into tomorrow.

Wouldn't surprise me too much if we do get a burst of RI at some point in the next 24hrs, esp once that eyewall closes off.

[Cyclenall]

Reminds me of Jimena 09 in that sense.

That's an insult to Hurricane Jimena of 2009! Jimena was legendary and I still believe it was a category 5 at peak intensity.

That makes the EPac four for four. Everything is developing this year!

Something that might have been overlooked was there has been five Invests for the Epac so far this year and four out of the five became hurricanes and half (maybe) major hurricanes. There are very few spare Invests so far and a bit lower than usual too.

My guess about it starting this morning busted...the inner core took longer than expected to organize, though there was a decent increase in wind speed from yesterday to today. Definitely will see an increase in winds tonight, and if that eyewall completely forms, could very well witness an RI episode tonight into tomorrow.

I echo these exact thoughts. I checked yesterday morning and thought it was going to RI but nope. 24-36 hours before Dora formed I pegged the chances of this becoming a TC at 99.9% and a hurricane at 90% due to the extreme agreement for every model to develop it. Since it had more time than usual to strengthen and the path likely to cross over the warmest waters, I thought it would become a major hurricane without guidance showing such (I assume the GFS based models upped from CAT2 to around high end CAT3 strength after Saturday's model runs) and the best chances yet for a category 5 to form in the Epac this year (abit low).

6 hurricanes in a row is the record. That was in 1966. Just in case anyone is interested.

Does anyone know what year since we had this many Epac hurricanes in a row is (Is it now the same as the record)? Before Dora it was 1996 but now?

Anything in the EPAC before the NHC took over needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Just to let your know. The NHC took over the basin in 1988. Hopefully, someday there will be a reanalysis for this area like we're doing in the Atlantic.

Doesn't it look weird that the intensity of all 6 hurricanes is 75 knots? lol

I'm fairly sure that did not happen and for all 6 to be 75 knots like that is flat out rubbish. I think they missed some TS's/TD's in there.

[Chacor]

The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Center in San Francisco had warning responsibility before the NHC. There were no accurate estimates of intensity in early seasons, just a standard 45 kt intensity for TS and 75 kt for hurricanes, hence the oddity.

[cycloneye]

90 mph

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
500 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2011

...DORA INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 102.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST. DORA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DORA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DORA COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY LATE TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA BY TONIGHT AND WITHIN THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

EP, 04, 2011072012, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1023W, 80, 981, HU

[brunota2003]

80 knots is 92.1 mph

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like 85 knts to me.

[Chacor]

WTPZ44 KNHC 201441
TCDEP4

HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
DORA ALONG WITH PRONOUNCED BANDING FEATURES. ALTHOUGH AN EYE IS
NOT APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE
INNER CORE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
INCREASING...AND THE WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 80 KT.

WHILE THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING STEADILY DURING ITS
LIFETIME...IT HAS HAD SOME TROUBLE DEVELOPING AN INNER CORE.
PERHAPS THIS IS DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR AS INDICATED BY LOCAL
NHC SHEAR DIAGNOSTICS. WHATEVER THE CASE...AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...DORA SHOULD INTENSIFY...AND
COULD RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN. THE STATISTICAL MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL...SHOWING THIS SYSTEM PEAKING IN A
DAY OR TWO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. A RAPID DECLINE IN STRENGTH IS
LIKELY BY LATE FRIDAY AS DORA MOVES ACROSS RATHER COLD WATERS
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN ABOUT 5 DAYS OVER WATERS LESS THAN 21C.

DORA CONTINUES SPEEDING ALONG TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT.
A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE DORA TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48
HOURS...JUST A SMIDGE FASTER. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF A NARROW RIDGE
BETWEEN DORA AND A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE...CAUSING A LEFTWARD
SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 14.9N 103.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 15.9N 104.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 17.1N 106.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 18.3N 108.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 19.3N 109.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 20.8N 111.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 22.5N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 24.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

Why doesn't the NHC want to reach Cat 4.

[Chacor]

What's with the bashing? Obviously based on their analysis of the situation they don't feel cat 4 is likely. It's not a matter of whether they "want" it to reach cat 4, or any intensity for that matter.

[Yellow Evan]

What's with the bashing? Obviously based on their analysis of the situation they don't feel cat 4 is likely. It's not a matter of whether they "want" it to reach cat 4, or any intensity for that matter.

It seems that there being really conservative with the system.

[cycloneye]

Why doesn't the NHC want to reach Cat 4.

WHILE THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING STEADILY DURING ITS
LIFETIME...IT HAS HAD SOME TROUBLE DEVELOPING AN INNER CORE.
PERHAPS THIS IS DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR AS INDICATED BY LOCAL
NHC SHEAR DIAGNOSTICS

And the window to intensify gets smaller with time as cooler waters await.