ATL: CINDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Florida1118]

Dr.Masters-

Invest 99L no threat
Satellite imagery suggests that a low pressure system near 34N, 55W, about 500 miles east of Bermuda, is close to tropical depression strength. This system, dubbed Invest 99L, has been given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. The storm is headed east-northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The storm will move over cool ocean waters below 25°C by Thursday morning, so it has just a short window of time to develop.

[HURAKAN]

Great picture!!

[SouthDadeFish]

Short lived and not really tropical. Going nowhere, affecting no one.

Let's not waste a name on it.

Beware of pouch PO7L though. That is the one to watch.

The fact that it is a fish storm has nothing to do if it should be named or not. There is no "waste" of a name. If it meets the qualifications it should be named, simple as that. To be honest I see no reason why this shouldn't be classified. Definitely appears as its own entity to me.

[MGC]

Keeps looking better and better. Convection is now pretty solid near the center .....time to upgrade.....MGC

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT02 KNGU 201530
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 33.3N 56.9W TO 39.0N 49.7W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 201400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 56.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS.
2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 420NM EAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING
INCREASED CONVECTION AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. MODERATELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 78 TO 80 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. WIND SHEAR VALUES
OF 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE REGION MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 211530Z.//



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[Florida1118]

If you dont mind me asking, what do those mean exactly and who makes them?

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: If you dont mind me asking, what do those mean exactly and who makes them?

The folks at ATCF do them.At link,you can see all about them.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/index.html

[Florida1118]

Thanks!

[Ivanhater]

90 percent!

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201736
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BRET...LOCATED ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Florida1118]

Hoo-rah! They're going to upgrade!

[Hurricanehink]

For those of you wondering, simultaneous July storms aren't that rare. In 2008, there were almost three simultaneous storms, as Bertha became extratropical while Dolly was forming and Cristobal was still in existence. In almost the same scenario as Bret and 99L, in the middle of July 2006 Beryl and an unnamed tropical storm developed from the same trough, only the unnamed storm became a remnant low just before Beryl formed. In 2005, Cindy and Dennis, Dennis and Emily, and Franklin and Gert were all co-active in July.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We should see TD #3 or Tropical Storm Cindy at 5PM. In all honesty, this probably could have been declared a TD yesterday, but the NHC didn't show much interest. One thing is for sure, someone flipped a switch on the Atlantic basin over the past few days.

[cycloneye]

We should see TD #3 or Tropical Storm Cindy at 5PM. In all honesty, this probably could have been declared a TD yesterday, but the NHC didn't show much interest. One thing is for sure, someone flipped a switch on the Atlantic basin over the past few days.

Welcome to storm2k and enjoy all of what we have.Any questions that you may have,dont hesitate to ask.

[HURAKAN]

latest visible ... looks like a go!

[Bobo2000]

Should activate at 5pm. For what it looks like, they got an good chance to designate it TD or SD 3 or TS Or SS Cindy.

[HURAKAN]

right on cue, convection has increased over the center

[wxman57]

Probably TD unless there is good evidence of TS winds. SSTs there are in the 25C range and drop fast north and east of the center. There's not much of a future for this system. Don't understand why Jack (Beven) would go 90% vs. 100% if he's planning on naming it in 2 hrs. Don't think that's enough time to observe much change. Model guidance should be out shortly. If it says "Three" in the header then we'll know they're upgrading.

[Brent]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al992011_al032011.ren

AL, 03, 2011072018, , BEST, 0, 345N, 547W, 30, 1009, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Florida1118]

TD3 it appears and not Cindy...yet

[wxman57]

I hope we don't waste a name on it. But it does look much more impressive than Bret...