Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1035 PM AST MON JUL 18 2011

.UPDATE...A TROPICAL WAVE...WITH AXIS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS MONDAY EVENING...WILL CONTINUE
MOVING WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXPECT VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES...THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT A QUICK UPDATE
TO BOTH TO ALTER THE WEATHER...SKY COVER...POPS AND WINDS IN
SEVERAL ZONES. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR
SEMANTIC ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO THE
SYNOPSIS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH ABOUT 19/16Z. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. AFTER 19/16Z...SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO...CAUSING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS OVER TJMZ AND
TJBQ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10-20 KTS FROM THE SFC
TO AROUND 10K FT...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.

[Macrocane]

After several days of cooler than normal temps in Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama they returned to normal today. The rest of the region had near normal temps as well, except for El Salvador that had cooler than normal lows and Belize warmer than normal lows.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 28°C (82°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.5°C (49.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22°C (72°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.4°C (54.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.9°C (42.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.5°C (74.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.1°C (57.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.6°C (87.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.3°C (70.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.6°C (83.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.2°C (68.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.3°C (93.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.8°C (82.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.6°C (60.1°F) Yesterday this location had a high of only 9.8°C/49.6°F it was the coolest since March 19.
Panama city, Panama 31.9°C (89.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.0°C (71.6°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 AM AST TUE JUL 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE A SOUTHWESTERLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION LATER TODAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF THE USVI AND
PR AS A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSED THE AREA AND INTERACTED WITH UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N70W. LOW LEVEL MOTION FROM EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10
TO 15 KTS SHOULD ALLOW MOST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE FAST ENOUGH NOT TO POSE MAJOR FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER WEST NORTHWEST PR THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN BLOB OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 2.00 INCHES 0R HIGHER TO REMAIN MAINLY NORTH
OF PR WITH LOWER PW VALUES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A ELONGATED AREA OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE USVI AND PR WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE ARRIVING SATURDAY BUT AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING MOISTURE
SHOULD START INCREASING ACROSS USVI AND PR.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJSJ...TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH ABOUT 19/16Z. AFTER 19/16Z...SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... CAUSING TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY
AT 5-15 KTS FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 10K FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 92 79 / 50 20 30 20
STT 89 79 90 81 / 50 30 40 20

[cycloneye]

Discussion from Crownweather:

Let's pay close attention to this wave in the comming days.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Tropical Wave In The Eastern Atlantic Near 35 West Longitude:
I am keeping very close tabs on a tropical wave that is located near 35 West Longitude in the eastern Atlantic this morning. Satellite imagery this morning shows some signs of organization, however, this tropical wave lacks deep convection at this time. Latest indications are that the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) will head east and may have some influence in causing this tropical wave to organize further as it tracks westward over the coming days. Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for development over the coming days and this is a disturbance that should be monitored closely.

The latest global model guidance reveals that only the Canadian model forecasts tropical cyclone development from this wave. The European model has backed off on forecasting development and the GFS and NOGAPS models forecast no development from this tropical wave. Given that this tropical wave shows some signs of organization, I will be watching this system closely even though the model guidance says no to development.

As for a track, this tropical wave is forecast to track westward over the next few days and is expected to affect the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands from late Friday through Saturday with heavy rainfall and gusty winds. From there, this tropical wave is currently forecast to track across the Bahamas early next week and would bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall to the Bahamas during the early part of next week.

[knotimpaired]

Thanks for the heads up Luis.

I saw this earlier and was wondering if we were going to be affected in any way.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1027 AM AST TUE JUL 19 2011

PRC025-063-077-129-191630-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0310.110719T1427Z-110719T1630Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-SAN LORENZO PR-
1027 AM AST TUE JUL 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...JUNCOS...GURABO AND SAN LORENZO

* UNTIL 1230 PM AST

* AT 1024 AM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING TOWARDS OR ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO QUICK RISES IN
RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS THE STORMS PASS BY.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1821 6605 1829 6604 1830 6595 1822 6592
1814 6593 1813 6603

$$

RAM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 AM AST TUE JUL 19 2011

PRC021-061-127-139-191745-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0311.110719T1446Z-110719T1745Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
1046 AM AST TUE JUL 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO AND SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 145 PM AST

* AT 1044 AM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING TOWARDS OR ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO QUICK RISES IN
SMALL STREAMS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AS THE STORMS PASS BY.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1835 6617 1842 6608 1835 6595 1829 6605

$$
RAM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
328 PM AST TUE JUL 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW OVER HISPANOLA WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE NOW ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN
HISPANOLA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER
TODAY...GIVING WAY TO A NORMAL TRADE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL
REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY BUT AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING
MOISTURE SHOULD START INCREASING ACROSS USVI AND PR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW AND THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE
HELPED TO PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI TODAY. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
WERE OBSERVED ACROSS SAN LORENZO...CIALES...ANASCO AND PARTS OF
THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. SOME OF THESE AREAS IN PUERTO RICO RECEIVED
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME...
ONLY A COUPLE OF SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND SURROUNDING WATERS. OTHERWISE...GOES IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. GFS
SUGGESTS THAT THIS ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL DRIFT WEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...REACHING THE USVI AND PR WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVING SATURDAY BUT AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
EVENING MOISTURE SHOULD START INCREASING ACROSS USVI AND PR.

&&

.AVIATION...AT LEAST TIL 19/23Z...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS...AS WELL AS OVR OR VCNTY OF LOCAL TAF SITES
TJMZ...TJBQ... TJPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPO MVFR CONDS MTN TOP
OBSCR WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH PASSING LOW CLDS AND SHRA/TSRA OVR
PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR TIL 19/23Z. ALSO SUDDEN WIND
GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A GENERAL SE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW 0F 5 TO 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED BLO 25K FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 79 91 / 20 30 20 20
STT 80 89 80 91 / 30 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1047 PM AST TUE JUL 19 2011

.UPDATE...EXPECT PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO
AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT A
QUICK UPDATE TO BOTH...MAINLY TO KEEP THE FORECAST CURRENT WITH
ONGOING AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A
COUPLE OF MINOR ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO THE
SYNOPSIS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. All eyes are on the wave well east of the Antilles.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST WED JUL 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH
HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.
MOSTLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY...AS NO OTHER FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. AN
ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 38 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
ACTIVE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...AT THIS
MOMENT...COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AS THE SYSTEM MOVE
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...LIMITING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IN THE LONG
TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH MID MORNING
...MAINLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS OF TSJU...TJNR...TIST AND TISX.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THESE TERMINALS. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS OF
TSJU...TJMZ AND TJBQ....GENERATING OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THESE TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY ESE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 78 91 79 / 30 20 20 20
STT 89 80 90 80 / 40 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

From Crown Weather Services:

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Tropical Wave In The Eastern Atlantic Near 40 West Longitude:
A tropical wave near 40 West Longitude in the eastern Atlantic has had some deeper convection develop around it during the overnight hours. This tropical wave definitely needs to be watched very closely as environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development for at least the next several days. The only impediment that I see that may prevent this tropical wave from developing into a tropical cyclone is dry, dusty African air just ahead of it between 45 and 55 West Longitude. Even with that, I think this tropical wave will end up becoming our next named storm, Cindy.

The latest Canadian and European model guidance forecasts development into a tropical cyclone with the Canadian model forecasting a track into the Carolinas in about 9 to 10 days from now and the European model guidance forecasting a track into the Gulf of Mexico in about 10 days from now. The GFS model continues to forecast no development from this tropical wave and the NOGAPS model waits to develop this system until it is just east of the Bahamas next Wednesday.

Ok, my analysis is that this tropical wave is showing a good amount of rotation and contains quite a bit of moisture around it. I have a strong suspicion that this will develop into a tropical depression and a tropical storm by this weekend into early next week. Looking further out, the overall pattern for next week may feature a fairly strong and stout ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic. If this pans out, then this tropical wave may pose a threat to the southeastern US coast or eastern Gulf of Mexico around the middle part of next week. This is just speculation right now and a lot can change with the upper level patterns over the next 7 to 10 days.

I will be monitoring this tropical wave very closely and will definitely keep you all updated on the latest.

[Gustywind]

Here is the tropical wave near the 38W mentionned by the NHC

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200613
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N37W 12N39W. CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN A CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 30W AND
46W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N
BETWEEN 34W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W.


$$
MT

[Macrocane]

Good morning. Yesterday temps in Central America:
-Cooler than normal lows in El Salvador (ironically today we had much warmer than normal lows).
-Warmer than normal highs in Panama.
-Near normal temps in the rest of the region.

Here they are:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 26°C (79°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.2°C (48.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.8°C (64.0°F) Coolest since April 28
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.5°C (54.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.9°C (64.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.5°C (43.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.2°C (55.8°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.7°C (85.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.5°C (68.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.8°C (94.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.8°C (82.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.1°C (62.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 34.3°C (93.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)

[Gustywind]

Latest from the twave near the 40/42W...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201156
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
85 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N42W 6N40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
ITCZ...FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 44W.
A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE SPANS THE AREA OF THE WAVE AND THE
PRECIPITATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW OVER HISPANOLA WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND RELOCATE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN LATER FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC...WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGIONAL WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 72W. SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS
SHOWS A MOIST TONGUE BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO FUEL SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE USVI DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HRS. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...
EXPECT MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO...SHIFTING
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE SPIKE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHEN THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT TEMPO MVFR/PSBL IFR CONDS WITH AFTRN SHRA/TSRA
ESPECIALLY ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR...IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND
TJMZ. MOSTLY VFR CONDS EN ROUTE BTW NRN LEEWARDS AND PR WITH ONLY
WITH ISOLD SHRA AND PASSING LOW CLDS.


&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
OF 6 FEET OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
OVER MOST OF THE LOCAL PASSAGES AND OFFSHORE REGIONAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 78 89 / 40 40 20 20
STT 80 90 80 92 / 50 50 30 30

[Gustywind]

Tropical Activity between Africa and the Lesser Antilles

[cycloneye]

8 PM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 07N46W TO 16N40W MOVING W AT 20
KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A RATHER LARGE
AND BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS ALONG
WITH OVERALL BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW S OF 15N BETWEEN 35W-48W
ACCOMPANY THE WAVE WHICH CONTINUES TO PERTURB THE ITCZ AXIS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM WEST OF THE WAVE N
OF 12N.

[Macrocane]

Hi, we have light showers over San Salvador this afternoon but in other parts of the country they have been heavy, here's a pic I took a few minutes ago after the rain:

[abajan]

That wave in the central Atlantic certainly has some spin to it.
Incidentally, we had some serious winds, rain, lightning and thunder from an instability line that moved through late yesterday afternoon.