ATL: CINDY - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

I hope we don't waste a name on it. But it does look much more impressive than Bret...

LOL! Is there an echo in here?

[Florida1118]

I dont understand how its a waste...A TS is a TS

[ozonepete]

I dont understand how its a waste...A TS is a TS

Agreed. Even if it's only a TS for a few hours it should be recorded as one.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[JtSmarts]

So we are pretty sure this will be TD 3 instead of STD 3??

[senorpepr]

So we are pretty sure this will be TD 3 instead of STD 3??

ATCF would specify if it was a subtropical depression... it should be a tropical depression.

[Zampanò]

I agree that it is impossible to "waste" a storm name. A storm is a storm. We should avoid repeating the 2005 debacle.

With this and the central Atlantic wave, we may be on track for four named storms before August. Rather impressive.

[Cyclone1]

invest_RENUMBER_al992011_al032​011.ren

Have we ruled out Tropical Storm Cindy at five? Doesn't al03 mean either TD 3 or TS Cindy?

[KWT]

Going to be a close run thing as to whether it makes it to a TS or not, it sorta does look like one now to be honest, I've seen systems be in the 40-50kts range with similar presentations but alas no real way of knowing.

Still something of a surprise formation!

[senorpepr]

invest_RENUMBER_al992011_al032​011.ren

Have we ruled out Tropical Storm Cindy at five? Doesn't al03 mean either TD 3 or TS Cindy?

Things can change by the 21Z advisory, but according to ATCF, at 18Z it was Tropical Depression Three.

[wxman57]

Going to be a close run thing as to whether it makes it to a TS or not, it sorta does look like one now to be honest, I've seen systems be in the 40-50kts range with similar presentations but alas no real way of knowing.

Still something of a surprise formation!

I think the issue as far as naming is that there is no data other than satellite to judge the intensity. Maybe if the descending pass of the ASCAT satellite happens to hit the depression and indicate some TS winds then the the NHC will upgrade later this evening. It does look more like a TS than Bret does, but it's over cooler water and the winds may not translate down to the surface as well.

[Ivanhater]

There is talk around the boards that they will go with TS Cindy at 5 but that is high speculation...we will find out shortly.

[Ivanhater]

CINDY000
WTNT23 KNHC 202036
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
2100 UTC WED JUL 20 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 53.8W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 53.8W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 54.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 37.1N 50.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.9N 46.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 42.4N 42.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 45.4N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 52.5N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 53.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED NORTH OF BERMUDA YESTERDAY HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION JUST
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS TROPICAL CYCLONE
CHARACTERISTICS...AND THUS THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM
CINDY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A 35-KT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT CIRA AMSU ESTIMATE OF
41 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/22. CINDY IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH ITS LIFETIME. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CINDY WILL PASS OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 24-26C FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW
SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING AS SHOWN IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER MUCH COLDER WATER AND
INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE WESTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. CINDY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
COMPLETELY BY 96 HR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD
OCCUR EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 35.2N 53.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 37.1N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 39.9N 46.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 42.4N 42.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 22/1800Z 45.4N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/1800Z 52.5N 25.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Fyzn94]

........Well that didn't take long, now, did it???

[Bobo2000]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 202038
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CINDY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011

...TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORMS IN THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 53.8W
ABOUT 665 MI...1065 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST. CINDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CINDY WILL REMAIN FAR FROM LAND OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS CINDY ENCOUNTERS COLDER WATER AND LESS
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[KWT]

Given the presentation I can't say I'm all that surprised they decided to go with a TS this time round, I personally think thats the right call this time round

[plasticup]

In the EPac, all four storms have made it to hurricane status. In the Atlantic it looks like none of the first three will make it.

Although if that CV wave in the central Atlantic gets itself together, that could be a doozy.

[WeatherGuesser]

I get a kick out of all the speculation and later backtracking here. It makes for some decent comedy.

It's gonna be this

It's gonna be that

They'll make it this

No they won't




They did what?

[Macrocane]

Cindy is a nice little surprise for weather enthusiasts, well at least for me it is. I'm almost sure that the Atlantic will have a higher number of storms and hurricanes than the E.Pacific by September, it's just a question of time.