Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

#121 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:52 pm

Well 12z Euro tries to spin it up but drops development..same idea with a fast lifting trough with a quickly rebuilding ridge

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

#122 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:57 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Well 12z Euro tries to spin it up but drops development..same idea with a fast lifting trough with a quickly rebuilding ridge

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

Think it drops it due to interaction w/ Hispaniola?

#123 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:58 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Just like last year. USA dodged a lot of hurricanes because of them re curving. Seems to be the case this year.

Wow, this is a very silly statement to make when July isn't even over. Plus, recuring is "normal", but every now
and then a storm sneaks in under a strong ridge of high pressure.

Ay don't get upset. But we shall see at seasons end.

#124 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 2:03 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Well 12z Euro tries to spin it up but drops development..same idea with a fast lifting trough with a quickly rebuilding ridge

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

Think it drops it due to interaction w/ Hispaniola?

I would think so. It does try to spin it up prior to the Islands, so that is a good guess.

HPC places it in the Southern Bahamas

#125 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 2:04 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Well 12z Euro tries to spin it up but drops development..same idea with a fast lifting trough with a quickly rebuilding ridge

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

Think it drops it due to interaction w/ Hispaniola?

Euro looks like it pushes it WSW into Hispaniola.

Looking at the VIS IR this afternoon of P07L, still awfully dry out there and not much convection still.

Maybe it just won't develop as the GFS is thinking

and the longer it takes to develop the less it will gain lattitude....

ronjon · #126 Postby **ronjon** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 2:05 pm

12z euro ridging even stronger than its 00z run.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical500mbSLP_loop.html

#127 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 2:13 pm

Ukie is further south...gets tangled with the Islands

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#128 Postby **drezee** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 2:22 pm

That's the Georges track...

#129 Postby **somethingfunny** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 2:33 pm

I think that no matter what this wave becomes, it's going to be a very wet system. Look how huge the moisture envelope is, how it dismisses the SAL that chokes off so many other early CV systems. Lots and lots and lots of moisture - and rain/flooding potential - with this one. My opinion anyway.

#130 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 2:35 pm

Something we REALLY need here in Texas to break our drought. This system would be just what the doctor ordered for us if it gives us a lot of rain and if it doesn't bring strong winds.

#131 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 2:42 pm

It seems the enivironment is ideal for development on the 12z Euro around the Islands. Looks like a go imo.

#132 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 2:47 pm

Ivanhater wrote:It seems the enivironment is ideal for development on the 12z Euro around the Islands. Looks like a go imo.

Some models drifting more south with their tracks and others recurve?

Aric Dunn · #133 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 2:55 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:It seems the enivironment is ideal for development on the 12z Euro around the Islands. Looks like a go imo.

Some models drifting more south with their tracks and others recurve?

becasue this run the Euro hold off on development.
the 00z it had a cyclone and it took a more northern track.

#134 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 2:58 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:It seems the enivironment is ideal for development on the 12z Euro around the Islands. Looks like a go imo.

Some models drifting more south with their tracks and others recurve?

becasue this run the Euro hold off on development.
the 00z it had a cyclone and it took a more northern track.

IMO, the recent EURO run develops it then kills it over Hispaniola.

#135 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 3:01 pm

The more I look at things, the more I am questioning development here. I see alot of dry air out in front if it between 50W and 60W. Model support is not in total agreement either, with the GFS keeping it a wave passing through the Caribbean. Seems reasonable to me. CMC typically overhypes development. The ECMWF is intiguing but pushing it more and more south with each run. I do think this wave will moisten the MDR to help development for future waves out there. It's also a bit early to get development in the MDR.

Nonetheless, not too sure, and something to check in with periodically over the coming days.

Aric Dunn · #136 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 3:07 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Some models drifting more south with their tracks and others recurve?

becasue this run the Euro hold off on development.
the 00z it had a cyclone and it took a more northern track.

IMO, the recent EURO run develops it then kills it over Hispaniola.

there is no development in the 12z that I see.. just a wave. the 00z develops it in the NE carrib islands then bends it wnw towards the bahamas

KWT · #137 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 3:10 pm

It might be one of those systems that its just a little too early for it to develop down where it is, a month down the line and we'd have probably already have a Td/TS out of it given its structure.

Aric Dunn · #138 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 3:28 pm

gatorcane wrote:The more I look at things, the more I am questioning development here. I see alot of dry air out in front if it between 50W and 60W. Model support is not in total agreement either, with the GFS keeping it a wave passing through the Caribbean. Seems reasonable to me. CMC typically overhypes development. The ECMWF is intiguing but pushing it more and more south with each run. I do think this wave will moisten the MDR to help development for future waves out there. It's also a bit early to get development in the MDR.

Nonetheless, not too sure, and something to check in with periodically over the coming days.

well unfortunately you cant determine the moisture from that WV... that shows for the most part only the upper levels of the atmosphere.... the wave itself has plenty of low level moisture, it just lacks the dynamics to sustain large complexes of convection at the moment. but that will change as it as it approaches 55 west.

mid level water vapor.

#139 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:08 pm

Well Well...12z Euro Ensemble mean likes development and headed toward the Florida Straits 8-)

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#140 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:09 pm

Is it heading west at the end of the 12z Euro ensembles run?

Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

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