WPAC: NOCK-TEN (Juaning) - Tropical Depression

[StormingB81]

New one just popped up located at 8N 139E Southwest of guam..

[somethingfunny]

Is this the one that's gotten a fair bit of model support?

[StormingB81]

Can't get a photo not working for me if someone can get it up if not I will post when I get home.. Thanks..

[climateconcern23]

[KWT]

Is this the one that's gotten a fair bit of model support?

I believe that is the case. I'm not sure whether its this area the 00z ECM weakly develops on its 00z run or something else.

[StormingB81]

ECMWF really shows it developing on the 12z model but while still early shows it going ot the right of Okinawa looks like may be headed the same direction (after the turn) that Ma-on just did...that would be bad for all those who just got all that ain from ma-on to get another tropical system and get soaked again!

[ManilaTC]

CMC and GFS runs take it to Luzon or Taiwan though.

[StormingB81]

True well see if it develops first..I mean Ma-on when being forecasted by the models was being brough to Okinawa nad never really touched us when it was time..so always have to wait and see

[euro6208]

yep. ecmwf showing a fairly strong storm possibly a typhoon in the philippine sea named nock-ten.

[dexterlabio]

CMC and GFS runs take it to Luzon or Taiwan though.

Actually euro hinted another system to form earlier than the other coming farther east of the Philippine sea, which is I believe located somewhere near this invest. Maybe the one nearer the PI will be the one to get near Luzon-Taiwan area.

Multi-model:


Euro 12z 21 July:


This is the one shown in the 00z run by ECM, and by the way this image and the image above are some kind of simplified tracking map. I find it clearer to use instead of viewing the deterministic forecast graphic on their site.

[dexterlabio]

This is posted along with the final advisory on Ma-on by JTWC. Though this one is located nearer Visayas islands.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 10.3N 128.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 265 NM EAST OF CEBU, PHILIPPINES, AND IS SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LONG TERM. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS CURRENTLY POORLY DEFINED ON ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT THE 220000Z PGTW STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE LLCC EXISTS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
UNDERNEATH APPROXIMATELY 15 KNOTS OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS RAPIDLY BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE
PHILIPPINE SEA IN THE WAKE OF 08W. STEADY SOUTHWESTERLIES HAVE SET
IN ON PALAU AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A 212327Z SSMIS IMAGE
SHOWS BROAD, MODERATE CURVATURE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AND DEEPENING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[dexterlabio]

True well see if it develops first..I mean Ma-on when being forecasted by the models was being brough to Okinawa nad never really touched us when it was time..so always have to wait and see

I'm sorry but I thought Ma-on did pass near Okinawa before going north towards Honshu? Not a direct hit but just went near Okinawa and also various models including ECM have been hinting that it would make landfall over Southern Japan, the only upset on the early forecasts is that Ma-on weakened quickly instead of intensifying further as it passed south of Japan.

[phwxenthusiast]

how did you get that euro image, dexter??

[dexterlabio]

Here:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/glblgen/

Everything I need is in there. NOGAPS, GFS, ECM, CMC, among others. It also updates shortly when the latest runs are posted.

[phwxenthusiast]

ahh i see... i'm still using the old ncep page... i'm surprised ECMWF is not restricted on the new site anymore haha

thanks

[StormingB81]

True well see if it develops first..I mean Ma-on when being forecasted by the models was being brough to Okinawa nad never really touched us when it was time..so always have to wait and see

I'm sorry but I thought Ma-on did pass near Okinawa before going north towards Honshu? Not a direct hit but just went near Okinawa and also various models including ECM have been hinting that it would make landfall over Southern Japan, the only upset on the early forecasts is that Ma-on weakened quickly instead of intensifying further as it passed south of Japan.

What I meant is at first it had it coming here then moved north and east the nodels did.....I know we had a brush of it I was aying it wasnt as bad as the models first said it would be but the are exactly that models and predictions that will always change

[dexterlabio]

What I meant is at first it had it coming here then moved north and east the nodels did.....I know we had a brush of it I was aying it wasnt as bad as the models first said it would be but the are exactly that models and predictions that will always change

Oh I see.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Last night 12Z run, in a consensus of something developing. All be it not to strong.

[StormingB81]

Well I will try to see what happend with it but since it is my Anniversar..lol the boss is in charge..

[Typhoon10]

HKO shows something happening in 72hrs, but doesnt look much, just a LPA? Probably just bring a lot of rain to Philippines which is a shame cause heard norther Philippines has had hell of a lot of rain this year

http://www.hko.gov.hk/nhm/nhmsfcpp72e.htm