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ATL: CINDY - Remnants - Discussion
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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
looks to be about 55 to 60 kts wouldnt go any higher
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000
WTNT23 KNHC 211440
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2011
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 47.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 120SE 100SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 47.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 48.4W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 42.7N 43.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 45.9N 38.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 105SE 90SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 49.8N 32.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 120SE 100SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 52.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.3N 47.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT23 KNHC 211440
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2011
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 47.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 75SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 120SE 100SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 47.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 48.4W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 42.7N 43.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 45.9N 38.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 105SE 90SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 49.8N 32.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 120SE 100SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 52.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.3N 47.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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HURAKAN
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
21/1745 UTC 41.3N 46.3W T2.5/2.5 CINDY
35 knots & tropical
35 knots & tropical
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011
SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT CINDY HAS BEEN
TRYING TO FORM AN EYEWALL. A CLEAR SPOT HAS BEEN APPARENT IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NEVER WRAPPED
AROUND IT ENOUGH TO CALL IT AN EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND A RECENT CIRA
AMSU ESTIMATE WAS 49 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.
CINDY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 24 HR AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 42.3N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 44.5N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 47.9N 36.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0600Z 51.6N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z 55.0N 22.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011
SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT CINDY HAS BEEN
TRYING TO FORM AN EYEWALL. A CLEAR SPOT HAS BEEN APPARENT IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NEVER WRAPPED
AROUND IT ENOUGH TO CALL IT AN EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND A RECENT CIRA
AMSU ESTIMATE WAS 49 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.
CINDY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 24 HR AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 42.3N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 44.5N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 47.9N 36.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0600Z 51.6N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z 55.0N 22.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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MGC
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Yep, looking like the ET transition has started.....MGC
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somethingfunny
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:The Atlantic amazes me in that tropical cyclones can routinely get to or above 45N latitude, which isn't even the subtropics...
The Gulf Stream is a beast. I recently noticed on a global SST map that the water off Sweden is warmer than the water off Los Angeles, LOL. The WPAC has its' own warm water current but it isn't as strong as the Atlantic's.
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I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
Cindy still battling on it seems, 50kts seems a pretty good estimate to me based on its presentation...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Yeah that is an impressive looking system, shallow convection though...reminds me of several of the N.Atlantic systerms since 2005 that either became hurricanes or were very close.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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HURAKAN
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Re:
KWT wrote:Yeah that is an impressive looking system, shallow convection though...reminds me of several of the N.Atlantic systerms since 2005 that either became hurricanes or were very close.
The convection is shallow because the tropopause in the subtropics and polar region is closer to the surface than in tropical regions. So, you will never see reds in the infrared images with these systems.
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HURAKAN
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
21/2345 UTC 42.7N 43.7W T2.5/2.5 CINDY
no change
no change
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HURAKAN
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AL, 03, 2011072200, , BEST, 0, 427N, 440W, 50, 1002, TS
no change
no change
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: CINDY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
HURAKAN wrote:AL, 03, 2011072200, , BEST, 0, 427N, 440W, 50, 1002, TS
no change
It went down to 45kts.
AL, 03, 2011072200, , BEST, 0, 427N, 440W, 45, 1000, TS
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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