Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

[Ivanhater]

Convection is increasing and now formed a nice band in the NW and western side.

[WeatherEmperor]

Michael,

Can you post the 12Z Euro Ensembles? A while back I saw you posted the 0Z.

[Blown Away]

Convection area and banding increasing, if a LLC forms think it will be above/below 15N?

[somethingfunny]

Convection area and banding increasing, if a LLC forms think it will be above/below 15N?

Maybe 13N IMO, at the moment.

[SouthFLTropics]

Convection area and banding increasing, if a LLC forms think it will be above/below 15N?

If I was to pick a spot right now that looks very suspect I would have to say it would be around 14.5N and 50W

SFT

[gatorcane]

It is looking better today for sure. I expected this wave to flare up and down as it heads west.

In fact I think we will have an invest on this wave probably within the next 24 hours or so.

Chances for development look a bit higher than yesterday but the long-term forecast for this system is far from certain at this point.

Just one of those situations to keep an eye on as development will probably be gradual if it happens at all.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been requiered for Guadeloupe and Martinica due to a risk of strong showers and tstorms... as the this active twave should bring a deterioration of the weather tomorrow but especially Saturday. Stay tuned.

For those who are interrested here is the special weather forecast (french version).
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/sp ... e_2007.php

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Yellow alert have been requiered for Guadeloupe and Martinica due to a risk of strong showers and tstorms... as the this active twave should bring a deterioration of the weather tomorrow but especially Saturday. Stay tuned.

For those who are interrested here is the special weather forecast (french version).
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/sp ... e_2007.php

Too far out for the radar fence yet, but here is the link for later anyhow:

source webpage:

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

[Gustywind]

[hurrican't]

first time poster, long time lurker here. i know its still way far out, but educated guess wise what do you guys think are the chances that this will hit the Texas gulf coast? thanks

[SouthFloridawx]

Convection is definitely on the increase the evening.

[Tireman4]

first time poster, long time lurker here. i know its still way far out, but educated guess wise what do you guys think are the chances that this will hit the Texas gulf coast? thanks

I am not a meteorologist or play one on television, but I think (in my humble opinion) it is WAY too early for that thought. We have a long way to go and it has a long road to travel.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

If nothing else it looks like a rain maker through the northern parts of the Caribbean and the Bahamas...beyond that its hard to say.

I personally don't think it develops, the models are abit half hearted with it, they do show it but the models don't get at all agressive with it other than the Nogaps...

Still needs watching, esp on the track its likely to be on, wouldn't be surprised if its invested in the next 24-48hrs.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

first time poster, long time lurker here. i know its still way far out, but educated guess wise what do you guys think are the chances that this will hit the Texas gulf coast? thanks

Just a tip my friend anyone who says they are 100% sure it will hit a given area of mainland North America this far out, doesn't know what they are talking about.

[HURAKAN]

first time poster, long time lurker here. i know its still way far out, but educated guess wise what do you guys think are the chances that this will hit the Texas gulf coast? thanks

I am not a meteorologist or play one on television, but I think (in my humble opinion) it is WAY too early for that thought. We have a long way to go and it has a long road to travel.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree with Tireman4 here but we can still make 2 assumptions here.

1. If it organizes near the islands, it will likely recurve.

2. If it stays weak, it will likely move further westward and stay further south, which could pose a possible threat to the Gulf coast.

But it's just wait and see. My best wishes for Texas is a slow moving tropical storm!! Rain is badly needed!

[cycloneye]

If nothing else it looks like a rain maker through the northern parts of the Caribbean and the Bahamas...beyond that its hard to say.

I personally don't think it develops, the models are abit half hearted with it, they do show it but the models don't get at all agressive with it other than the Nogaps...

Still needs watching, esp on the track its likely to be on, wouldn't be surprised if its invested in the next 24-48hrs.

The models have been inconsistent so far in 2011 with ups and downs, one run shows something,then the next one vanishes a scenario. Even the ECMWF which has performed very well in past years,has been also inconsistent. Hopefully,when the peak of the season arrives,they perform much better.

[Gustywind]

If nothing else it looks like a rain maker through the northern parts of the Caribbean and the Bahamas...beyond that its hard to say.

I personally don't think it develops, the models are abit half hearted with it, they do show it but the models don't get at all agressive with it other than the Nogaps...

Still needs watching, esp on the track its likely to be on, wouldn't be surprised if its invested in the next 24-48hrs.

The models have been inconsistent so far in 2011 with ups and downs, one run shows something,then the next one vanishes a scenario. Even the ECMWF which has performed very well in past years,has been also inconsistent. Hopefully,when the peak of the season arrives,they perform much better.

Well said Cycloneye , for the moment let's wait and see what could happens and be vigilant as usual. We all know that... "never say never in the tropics".

[KWT]

The models have been inconsistent so far in 2011 with ups and downs, one run shows something,then the next one vanishes a scenario. Even the ECMWF which has performed very well in past years,has been also inconsistent. Hopefully,when the peak of the season arrives,they perform much better.

Yep, the models hardly covered themselves with glory with Bret or Cindy.

I personally think if this one is going to develop it will be well down the line, GoM or W.Caribbean/BoC...the pattern of the system was one of development, its weakened a little in that respect in the last 24-36hrs but its held up fairly well to be fair. I'm pretty sure it'd be a player this time next month, right now its abit borderline, at least east of say 65W.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Development has never really been a strong point of any of the models IMHO. However, once something starts to develop and the models are run specific to a system, they are get much better. The Euro has many lovers here, and I tend to follow it closely, though it often seems to turn things too quickly at first, due to overstrengthening and underestimating ridges. That's were the GFS can be a benefit, as it tends to see the ridge synoptics a bit better (at least in the past). I tend to look at the Euro, but take it with a grain of salt if the GFS is not in sync with its prognosis regarding where the High will be situated at the time a storm approaches its periphery. I tend to believe the GFS if they disagree on that point. But otherwise the Euro is generally more accurate in the other areas of projecting direction and to an extent, strength. Right now, none of the models are very good at that, as there are so many chaotic factors that influence strength. We are a few years away from them being able to incorporate them all. (shear, dust, land interaction, eye wall replacements, etc.) but that too is getitng better every year.

[vbhoutex]

Development has never really been a strong point of any of the models IMHO. However, once something starts to develop and the models are run specific to a system, they are get much better. The Euro has many lovers here, and I tend to follow it closely, though it often seems to turn things too quickly at first, due to overstrengthening and underestimating ridges. That's were the GFS can be a benefit, as it tends to see the ridge synoptics a bit better (at least in the past). I tend to look at the Euro, but take it with a grain of salt if the GFS is not in sync with its prognosis regarding where the High will be situated at the time a storm approaches its periphery. I tend to believe the GFS if they disagree on that point. But otherwise the Euro is generally more accurate in the other areas of projecting direction and to an extent, strength. Right now, none of the models are very good at that, as there are so many chaotic factors that influence strength. We are a few years away from them being able to incorporate them all. (shear, dust, land interaction, eye wall replacements, etc.) but that too is getitng better every year.

Well stated!!! I pretty much agree. Heck if the models were perfect we wouldn't have a reason to "discuss" them and whether they are right or wrong.
Meanwhile, this one certainly has my interest. Not about to do anything in the way of prediction with it yet, but with what some of the models have been suggesting, it definitely has my attention.