ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[lester]

Looks like another one bites the dust

Sent from my ADR6300 using Tapatalk

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I think the National Hurricane Center will go ahead and call it on Bret...The 11PM advisory may be the final one.

[NDG]

Bret got decapitated this evening, mid level circulation left behind.

[CrazyC83]

See you in 2017, Bret!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
1100 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011

THE SYSTEM LOST ESSENTIALLY ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION SEVERAL HOURS
AGO...AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT BRET HAS NOW WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE FOR THE
MAINTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH STRONG SHEAR AND COOLING
WATERS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF
BRET...THE SYSTEM COULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS MUCH
SOONER THAN THAT.

BRET HAS ACCELERATED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/12...PERHAPS
A LITTLE FASTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN THE FLOW TO
THE NORTH OF THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND CLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 35.6N 68.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 36.9N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 38.4N 61.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 40.0N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[MGC]

Yep, looks like Bret is a goner.....MGC

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
500 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011

BRET REMAINS A MAVERICK TROPICAL CYCLONE BY REFUSING TO DISSIPATE
DESPITE EXPERIENCING VERY HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. PREVIOUSLY DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION...SOME
MODEST CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -45C HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. IN ADDITION...SHIP WDC6925 LOCATED ABOUT
80 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SOUTHWEST WIND OF 24 KT AT
06Z. THIS INFORMATION...COMBINED WITH A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB...IS JUSTIFICATION FOR MAINTAINING
BRET AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.

BRET HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
055/18. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SITUATED ALONG 30N LATITUDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRET MOVING OVER
MUCH COLDER WATERS...WHICH WILL HASTEN ITS DEMISE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO
THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF BRET IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AND PASS OVER THE CYCLONE. THIS WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE THE WIND SHEAR...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ONE FINAL SHORT
BURST OF CONVECTION TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER. FOR THAT REASON...
BRET IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTERWARD...HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER
SSTS OF NEAR 22C BENEATH THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN DISSIPATION
BY 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM
INTENSITY FORECASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 36.7N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 38.0N 63.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 39.4N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 40.9N 54.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HurricaneBelle]

Not so fast my friends - Bret still hanging in there as a TD.

In fact, he prompted this bit of humor from Stacy Stewart:

BRET REMAINS A MAVERICK TROPICAL CYCLONE BY REFUSING TO DISSIPATE
DESPITE EXPERIENCING VERY HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.

He must be a James Garner fan:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bret_Maverick

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory issued

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
1100 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT BRET IS NOT GENERATING
ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
IN ADDITION...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS
WELL-DEFINED AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
THEREFORE...BRET HAS DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST UNTIL IT WEAKENS TO A TROUGH
IN ABOUT 24 HR.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF BRET CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 37.7N 64.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 23/0000Z 39.0N 60.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BRET ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
1100 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011

...BRET DEGENERATES TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA...THIS IS THE LAST
ADVISORY...

[KWT]

Well thats the end of Bret, was cool for the first 24hrs, esp when it looked like it was developing an eye, also was a quick former as well, but in the end it went out on a whimper...