Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like the Dust is finally waning.

[South Texas Storms]

It looks like tonight's 0z NAM run develops it just north of Cuba in 84 hours.

[Vortex]

00Z model suite coming in....First up FWIW Nam...

Further West than prior runs and looks gulf bound per latest guidance...Analysis of the 00Z NAM indicates overall envelope should really begin to expand in aerial coverage and intensity over the next 24 hours...It would appear very squally weather is on tap for the leewaed islands, PR, and DR..In fact, with a decent gradient setting up I'm expecting localized gusts to minimal TS across the region even it it holds off on classification..I think if it maintains itself than just N of Haiti/bahamas is where we close off the system and get a possible upgrade....

00Z 7/22 Nam Loop:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[South Texas Storms]

It will be interesting to see if the 0z CMC hops back on with development and if the 0z Euro keeps it too.

[Rgv20]

I actually agree with tonight's 0zNam on the handling of the Tropical Wave even though it may be to fast with the forward speed of the wave.

At 84hrs 0zNam has the wave just north of Cuba, my thinking would be just north of Haiti.

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah I do too Rgv.
I don't really agree with the GFS. Tonight's 0z run continues to show no development. It seems like it doesn't even see the wave very well.

[SFLcane]

I still dont see much in the way of development with this TW anytime soon. The overall environment that is ahead is not to friendly to say the least as it may run into possible land interaction and a TUTT like feature.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CINDY...LOCATED ABOUT 910 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. ADVISORIES ARE ALSO BEING ISSUED ON TROPICAL STORM
BRET...LOCATED ABOUT 295 MILES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE COULD BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[SouthFloridawx]

Good call Brent...

[HurricaneBrain]

Should be an Invest VERY soon... We may be able to squeeze Don in before the end of July.

[abajan]

The topic of this thread needs to be updated to reflect the 20% probability of the system becoming a cyclone.

[cycloneye]

This morning's discussion of wave by Crown Weather Services:

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Tropical Wave Located 500 Miles East Of The Windward Islands:
I am closely watching a tropical wave that is located around 500 miles to the east of the Windward Islands this morning. This tropical wave is producing on and off popcorn type shower and thunderstorm activity, where it fires up for several hours and then weakens thereafter. The reason for the lack of deep, sustained convection is that there continues to be a large amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara of Africa.

This tropical wave is expected to continue tracking west-northwestward this weekend into next week and will bring some very squally weather to the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico from Saturday into Sunday with heavy rainfall and gusty winds to 40 to 50 mph expected.

Even though vertical wind shear values are low enough to support tropical development, the dry, dusty air near this tropical wave will prevent it from developing into a tropical cyclone. Water vapor satellite loops indicate that the atmosphere is moister near the Bahamas and it is possible that this tropical wave may try to develop into a tropical cyclone once it reaches the Bahamas on Monday and Tuesday; although, this is not a sure thing. Only the NOGAPS model is forecasting development into a tropical cyclone during the early and middle part of next week. All of the other global model guidance members are saying no to development.

At this point, I think it is going to be a pretty much wait and see game for the next several days. I will say I do not expect tropical cyclone development from this tropical wave from today through Sunday night with the first chance of possible development arriving during Monday and Tuesday. Either way, I will keep a close eye on this tropical wave and will keep you all updated on the latest.

[KWT]

I still dont see much in the way of development with this TW anytime soon. The overall environment that is ahead is not to friendly to say the least as it may run into possible land interaction and a TUTT like feature.

Its one of those systems that does need watching, providing it can lift north of the islands its going to at least have a shot at weak development. The models aren't overly agressive anymore though so whilst something may develop, odds on it'll be like Bonnie 2010 or something like that.

[Blown Away]

The one spot that has maintained a decent convection blob since yesterday is up near 18N/54W, I keep thinking if a LLC develops it will be below 15N, but maybe it will be up near 18N?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

After Guadeloupe and Martinica yesterday, this morning the Northern Leewards are right now under an yellow alert for a risk of strong and tstorms. Stay tuned.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 13N54W 9N54W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

$$
MT

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CINDY...LOCATED ABOUT 910 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. ADVISORIES ARE ALSO BEING ISSUED ON RECENTLY DOWNGRADED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET...LOCATED ABOUT 295 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE COULD BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART