ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion
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ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107221223
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011072212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011072106, , BEST, 0, 118N, 468W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072112, , BEST, 0, 124N, 483W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072118, , BEST, 0, 128N, 498W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072200, , BEST, 0, 132N, 514W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072206, , BEST, 0, 135N, 531W, 20, 1012, DB
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107221223
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011072212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011072106, , BEST, 0, 118N, 468W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072112, , BEST, 0, 124N, 483W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072118, , BEST, 0, 128N, 498W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072200, , BEST, 0, 132N, 514W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072206, , BEST, 0, 135N, 531W, 20, 1012, DB
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- cycloneye
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ATL: DON - Models
Post all model runs here for 90L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Still looks to be a circulation below 15'N.The wave looks Yuc/Strait bound ATM.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
First model plots at 06z:
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 221226
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1226 UTC FRI JUL 22 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110722 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110722 0600 110722 1800 110723 0600 110723 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 53.1W 14.5N 56.2W 15.4N 59.4W 16.6N 62.8W
BAMD 13.5N 53.1W 14.4N 56.4W 15.3N 59.5W 16.0N 62.4W
BAMM 13.5N 53.1W 14.4N 56.3W 15.1N 59.5W 15.8N 62.7W
LBAR 13.5N 53.1W 14.2N 56.3W 15.1N 59.9W 15.9N 63.5W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 35KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110724 0600 110725 0600 110726 0600 110727 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 66.2W 20.5N 72.6W 22.4N 76.7W 24.1N 78.7W
BAMD 16.7N 65.1W 18.4N 69.7W 20.4N 72.4W 22.5N 74.3W
BAMM 16.7N 65.9W 18.7N 71.5W 20.2N 75.4W 21.4N 78.2W
LBAR 16.6N 66.8W 17.8N 72.1W 19.2N 76.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 42KTS 54KTS 61KTS 64KTS
DSHP 42KTS 39KTS 36KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 53.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 49.8W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 46.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Can't believe they'd show much - as the other posters said, too much going against that system and the VIS only shows scattered showers and a few thunderstorms associated with this wave...
On the other hand, the disturbance at 12N 27W is another matter - that is still holding together...
Frank
On the other hand, the disturbance at 12N 27W is another matter - that is still holding together...
Frank
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Javlin wrote:Still looks to be a circulation below 15'N.The wave looks Yuc/Strait bound ATM.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html
Yep. Its seemed like something that would be in the Bahamas next week but its not gaining latitude and until it develops, I don't see it going too much further north.
I'm guessing the more northern models are developing it too quick like they always do and pull it north. Its still a minimum of 36 hours from developing. More like 72.
EDIT: I think Yucatan is too far south. Might track near Hispaniola.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
RL3AO wrote:Javlin wrote:Still looks to be a circulation below 15'N.The wave looks Yuc/Strait bound ATM.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html
Yep. Its seemed like something that would be in the Bahamas next week but its not gaining latitude and until it develops, I don't see it going too much further north.
I'm guessing the more northern models are developing it too quick like they always do and pull it north. Its still a minimum of 36 hours from developing. More like 72.
EDIT: I think Yucatan is too far south. Might track near Hispaniola.
Yup,See graphic at models thread.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
12z Models
Code: Select all
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1237 UTC FRI JUL 22 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110722 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110722 1200 110723 0000 110723 1200 110724 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 54.7W 14.7N 57.8W 15.5N 61.3W 16.7N 64.8W
BAMD 13.8N 54.7W 14.7N 57.9W 15.5N 60.8W 16.2N 63.5W
BAMM 13.8N 54.7W 14.5N 57.9W 15.1N 61.2W 15.9N 64.5W
LBAR 13.8N 54.7W 14.4N 58.0W 15.1N 61.6W 15.7N 65.0W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 35KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110724 1200 110725 1200 110726 1200 110727 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 68.5W 19.8N 75.4W 21.1N 80.8W 22.3N 85.0W
BAMD 16.8N 66.0W 18.3N 70.6W 19.8N 73.9W 21.3N 76.7W
BAMM 16.7N 67.8W 18.3N 73.6W 19.5N 78.3W 20.5N 82.7W
LBAR 16.2N 68.0W 17.9N 72.9W 20.7N 75.4W 24.6N 80.3W
SHIP 43KTS 54KTS 63KTS 69KTS
DSHP 43KTS 44KTS 56KTS 62KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 51.4W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.4N LONM24 = 48.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
I think one of the big problems this wave will have to further intensification will be land interaction with Hispanola and possibly Cuba. Models want to either take it directly across the greater antilles or slighly north. It may not get a decent chance to develop unless or until it can get in the FL straits or GOM.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
The 12z graphic:
Uploaded by imageshack.us
Uploaded by imageshack.us
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
RL3AO wrote:Javlin wrote:Still looks to be a circulation below 15'N.The wave looks Yuc/Strait bound ATM.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html
Yep. Its seemed like something that would be in the Bahamas next week but its not gaining latitude and until it develops, I don't see it going too much further north.
I'm guessing the more northern models are developing it too quick like they always do and pull it north. Its still a minimum of 36 hours from developing. More like 72.
EDIT: I think Yucatan is too far south. Might track near Hispaniola.
What a shock, models through Hispaniola!!! IMO, looking at 13.5N/53.1W, that is E of the convection and it looks like everything is consolidating around that general area. IMO, it won't take much to bring 90L N or S of Hispaniola and SHIP has almost a hurricane in 120h and that includes going through PR & Hispaniola. If 90L misses those land masses we could have a more significant system, IMO.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
ronjon wrote:I think one of the big problems this wave will have to further intensification will be land interaction with Hispanola and possibly Cuba. Models want to either take it directly across the greater antilles or slighly north. It may not get a decent chance to develop unless or until it can get in the FL straits or GOM.
What about the Yucatan Channel? See the 12z graphic.
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- dixiebreeze
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Cycloneye, my granddaughter is flying out of St. Thomas on Monday. Do you think the weather will be ok? They are still sailing around the V.I. islands today thru Sunday. Thanks so much!
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
dixiebreeze wrote:Cycloneye, my granddaughter is flying out of St. Thomas on Monday. Do you think the weather will be ok? They are still sailing around the V.I. islands today thru Sunday. Thanks so much!
Hello Dixie.By Monday the weather should be improving slowly as the trail end of the system will have passed the St Thomas longitude,but the worse bad weather will be on Saturday thru Sunday.However, choppy seas are going to be there from tommorow thru Sunday.
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