Global model runs discussion

#2281 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Thu Jul 21, 2011 12:17 am

Yep it has been showing no development in the last weeks but we currently have 2 tropical storms out there.

#2282 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Thu Jul 21, 2011 5:43 pm

nobody posting the latest models with a 10% watch going on? that's a shock! haha
Ivanhater must be busy.

#2283 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jul 21, 2011 5:59 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:nobody posting the latest models with a 10% watch going on? that's a shock! haha
Ivanhater must be busy.

It is the weekend. :cheesy:

#2284 Postby **lonelymike** » Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:16 pm

Ivan is now active duty military so I don't think he has the schedule of waking up at noon and staying up all nite for Model wars with our friend the Rock.

Probably posting from an outpost in rural Afghanistan :wink:

dwsqos2 · #2285 Postby **dwsqos2** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 12:05 am

Also, there's really nothing on the globals, so there's really no motivation to post.

#2286 Postby **HurricaneBrain** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 2:19 pm

GFS sees a strong tropical wave off Africa in 10 days:

#2287 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 2:47 pm

lonelymike wrote:Ivan is now active duty military so I don't think he has the schedule of waking up at noon and staying up all nite for Model wars with our friend the Rock.
Probably posting from an outpost in rural Afghanistan

I commissioned at the end of April but don't go active until October so I'll be here all summer :cheesy:

#2288 Postby **somethingfunny** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 5:03 pm

I'm a bit surprised the models don't do anything with the wave behind 90L, "P09L". I've seen it flickering in and out on some global runs but never become much. Has anything interesting happened with it?

#2289 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 24, 2011 8:23 am

GFS is still void of any development thru August 9.

GFS loop

#2290 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Sun Jul 24, 2011 9:15 am

cycloneye wrote:GFS is still void of any development thru August 9.

GFS loop

Question, of the three storms which have already developed how many did the GFS detect in the long range? Seems to me the GFS hasn't been doing well with development this season, though it isn't alone all the models seem to be having issues.

#2291 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 24, 2011 9:19 am

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:GFS is still void of any development thru August 9.

GFS loop

Question, of the three storms which have already developed how many did the GFS detect in the long range? Seems to me the GFS hasn't been doing well with development this season, though it isn't alone all the models seem to be having issues.

Arlene was seen by GFS. Agree that so far in 2011,the models in general have done a poor performance.

hcane27 · #2292 Postby **hcane27** » Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:25 am

Not sure Global models "pick up" on barclinic development very well .....

ROCK · #2293 Postby **ROCK** » Sun Jul 24, 2011 4:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:GFS is still void of any development thru August 9.

GFS loop

GFS has been horrible picking up development. Nothing in the long range, really until August 19th? come on GFS. You can do better than that.. :lol:

ROCK · #2294 Postby **ROCK** » Sun Jul 24, 2011 4:46 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
lonelymike wrote:Ivan is now active duty military so I don't think he has the schedule of waking up at noon and staying up all nite for Model wars with our friend the Rock.
Probably posting from an outpost in rural Afghanistan

I commissioned at the end of April but don't go active until October so I'll be here all summer

our model wars are legendary...... :lol:

#2295 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Sun Jul 24, 2011 4:52 pm

ROCK wrote:
cycloneye wrote:GFS is still void of any development thru August 9.

GFS loop

GFS has been horrible picking up development. Nothing in the long range, really until August 19th? come on GFS. You can do better than that..

The GFS is no fun anymore. No huge hurricanes in the GOM in the 300+hours time frame anymore. :lol:

jinftl · #2296 Postby **jinftl** » Sun Jul 24, 2011 5:40 pm

That is disappointing....the GFS doesn't want to play....you mean there is no model run 2000 hours out showing a thundershower 1000 miles east of Dakar, Senegal growing into Katrina's bigger and badder brother ploughing into Miami and then the Gulf?

South Texas Storms wrote:
ROCK wrote:
cycloneye wrote:GFS is still void of any development thru August 9.

GFS loop

GFS has been horrible picking up development. Nothing in the long range, really until August 19th? come on GFS. You can do better than that..

The GFS is no fun anymore. No huge hurricanes in the GOM in the 300+hours time frame anymore.

HurricaneFan · #2297 Postby **HurricaneFan** » Sun Jul 24, 2011 7:21 pm

So no other models is showing development in the cape verde season area through early august?

blp · #2298 Postby **blp** » Sun Jul 24, 2011 7:29 pm

The GFS ears must have been ringing. 18z back on the development train with the strongest African development all year. Let's see if we some consistency.

#2299 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 24, 2011 7:29 pm

This is the first run in 2011 that I see GFS showing something that resembles a low pressure with more than one isobar. But is only one run and you know the drill.

18z GFS Loop

bamajammer4eva · #2300 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Sun Jul 24, 2011 7:38 pm

Any chance that the GFS is actually working like it should now by not showing numerous phantom storms all season long? Maybe there really won't be any activity in the first half of August. Sure it missed Bret and Cindy but both of those storms formed off of a cold front.

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