ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[TwisterFanatic]

The 18z GFS was just awful with initialization compared to the 850mb vorticity. We're gonna need a well defined LLC before the Global Models can get a good read on this invest.

[Hurricaneman]

I have this question, what will happen if this goes south of hispanola and cuba and goes towards Texas

[hurricanebuoy]

:uarrow: That would be the perfect scenario for us. I would LOVE to have a slow moving tropical storm hit Texas and break our drought soon! I'm just saying I would be happy with anything from a strong tropical wave up to a Category 2 storm.

I agree above with what happened in 2008 with Ike. We live about 70 miles from the coast. We were without electricity for 13 days and 14hrs. And we had sub hurricane winds here in Spring.

[CourierPR]

I have this question, what will happen if this goes south of hispanola and cuba and goes towards Texas

Well, we're not there yet, but I imagine all hell could break loose in terms of development. Let's see what happens if this strengthens more quickly than originally progged.

[wxman57]

I have this question, what will happen if this goes south of hispanola and cuba and goes towards Texas

Then we could see a Texas hurricane threat late next week. MIMIC TPW loop suggests good rotation and quite a bit of moisture. Development chances down the road may be greater than 50%, but probably not for 3-5 days.

[Frank P]

Might be a good time this weekend to make sure you have all your supplies on hand... anything develops in the GOM next week and it could get crazy.... don't want to get caught in that.. I'm locked and loaded...

[bamajammer4eva]

So would it be safe to say that if it doesnt go up the E Coast then it will bypass the central/eastern gulf and head for MX or TX?

[SunnyThoughts]

Might be a good time this weekend to make sure you have all your supplies on hand... anything develops in the GOM next week and it could get crazy.... don't want to get caught in that.. I'm locked and loaded...

Same here Frank, locked and loaded as of the beginning of June always. I hate those mad rushes to stores to get batteries and supplies. ugh Hopefully this will just be a good rainmaker for people who really need it. I sure hope thats all the future holds for anyone.

[KWT]

I have this question, what will happen if this goes south of hispanola and cuba and goes towards Texas

Then we could see a Texas hurricane threat late next week. MIMIC TPW loop suggests good rotation and quite a bit of moisture. Development chances down the road may be greater than 50%, but probably not for 3-5 days.

Its quite interesting because thats the timeframe most models either loose the system or weaken it, then again they've not been too great at least with the strengthening phase of systems thus far.

I do agree though, this one has a better chance than normal to develop.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: That would be the perfect scenario for us. I would LOVE to have a slow moving tropical storm hit Texas and break our drought soon! I'm just saying I would be happy with anything from a strong tropical wave up to a Category 2 storm.

I agree above with what happened in 2008 with Ike. We live about 70 miles from the coast. We were without electricity for 13 days and 14hrs. And we had sub hurricane winds here in Spring.

Yep,,in Humble...80-90 MPH winds, eye of Ike came over. Do not really want to do that again. I cannot remember THAT much rain with Ike in my territory. Maybe I am wrong. We were without power for 3 days. Luckier than most. Oh and thank goodness that Ike forced that front down for cool nights or oh dear Lord it would have been unbearable.

[SunnyThoughts]

So would it be safe to say that if it doesnt go up the E Coast then it will bypass the central/eastern gulf and head for MX or TX?

IF it does get into the gulf, I think that all depends on the strength of the ridge, and whether there are any weaknesses in the ridge, for the storm to get tugged by...all depends on how strong the storm happens to be at the time also I believe. Lots still up in the air, safe to say everyone needs to be prepared. Nothing is written in stone at this time for sure. Just be prepared and lets see how the models do the next few days.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CINDY...LOCATED ABOUT 590 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[ravyrn]

So would it be safe to say that if it doesnt go up the E Coast then it will bypass the central/eastern gulf and head for MX or TX?

No, it isn't safe to say anything at this time as it isn't even a storm yet and is still very far out in time and distance. We don't even know if it's going into the gulf or not. Once it gets a coc developed to help with models we'll have a better idea.

[Tireman4]

So would it be safe to say that if it doesnt go up the E Coast then it will bypass the central/eastern gulf and head for MX or TX?

No, it isn't safe to say anything at this time as it isn't even a storm yet and is still very far out in time and distance. It will be at least a couple days before we got an idea of whether this makes it into the gulf or not.

Maybe even a little longer than two days....

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD Special Feature:

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 18N55W TO 11N57W MOVING W TO WNW NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SURGE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS MAINLY W OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 56W-61W...AND
FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 60W-67W IMPACTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 54W-60W. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
ACTIVE WEATHER...SOMETIMES STRONG...TO THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[ROCK]

it hasnt developed and with no center to initialize the models are just guessing....I dont like a strong TS entering the GOM right now....ssts are baking...that is worrisome...

[ROCK]

I would say if it goes under the islands it would have plenty of gas.... goes in the GOM then you are talking high octane gas!

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 2atd26.png

Max Potential

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 2atsst.png


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Frank P]

Yeah Rock, especially since we have not had a really significant threat in while on the northern Gulf coast, not that this will but... it has the potential in the making....and its only a matter of time when it happens again...

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, up to 30% during the next 48 hours???? I didn't expect that!! I would have expected that maybe on Sunday or so, but that's a pretty high percentage, at least by NHC standards....

[BigA]

How does the eastern Caribbean look now? I know that it is usually referred to as a "dead zone" for tropical cyclone formation. Is 94L high enough in latitude to avoid the subsidence and dry air from South America?