ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Convection is expanding at a good rate right now and convection is very active ahead of this system meaning this area will be active for the next couple of days. Once this slows down in the Western Caribbean/Gulf, that is the time to watch for development. It was showing signs yesterday, but it will have to wait.

[MGC]

Looks quite less organized than yesterday evening. Most of the convection has shifted north and now the Greater Antilles should inhibit development. Might have a better chance in a couple of days.....MGC

[Blown Away]

TAFB shows the wave N of Cuba in 72 hours, the deep convection is well N of the 12Z position, so I'm not sold this area will just speed W into the W Caribbean.

[stormreader]

as mentioned earlier the area near the butterfly islands seems to be consolidating nicely.
i expect this area moving wnw is where the surface low will forming later today or tonight.
PR should receive alot of rain from this system. I'm going with a TD or Ron by Monday morning as is moves past PR.

Sounds reasonable. I do expect development. But I think it will occur a little bit further west perhaps somewhere near central Cuba. Just thinking aloud. Pretty much hit or miss here. Still got a long way to go in understanding this process.

[RL3AO]

If it brings heavy rain into Haiti, we all know what often happens.

[Dean4Storms]

Kind of says it all right here, it is losing organization if anything..........



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[KWT]

Looksd like energy is transfering NW exactly as the ECm was expecting, the models that did either strengthen/develop it really focused the energy around 24-48hrs timezone, its a fairly small window of developmental oppertunity but it needs watching around that timezone, esp once it gets past Hispaniola.

Needs close watching even if it does take a little while to develop from here, esp in the W.Gulf...we've seen how systems prop up at this time of year in that region.

[perk]

I'd say the potential just increased by having the models come under the islands. Just when the barrel starts aiming in that direction the Texas posts drop-off.

I don't exactly get your point about the Texas post drop-off.
* Amateur opinion of an internet poster not trained in meteorology.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ivanhater]

[Gustywind]

[Blown Away]

Clearly see broad convectionless cyclonic rotation ahead of the deep convection below 15N moving due W and the deeper convection moving generally WNW. I'll be interested to see where the 18z position is.

[Brent]

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE AND INTERACTION WITH
HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

[ROCK]

I'd say the potential just increased by having the models come under the islands. Just when the barrel starts aiming in that direction the Texas posts drop-off.


* Amateur opinion of an internet poster not trained in meteorology.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

not sure what you mean...I dont sit by my PC 24/7 looking at SAT loops....


that said, it does look like some sort of convection south of the islands with some mid level rotation...

[tailgater]

A gusty in St. Criox today


Conditions at CHSV3 as of
(1:30 pm AST)


Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 8.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.96 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 86.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 °F

[Sanibel]

Looks like a d-max re-fire of convection.


I meant the models appear to be trending more towards Texas than yesterday.

[ronjon]

12z GFDL brings 90L to a 980 mb hurricane in the SW GOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2011072312-invest90l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

12z HWRF does the same as GFDL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2011072312-invest90l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Rgv20]

18z Coordinates 15.9N 63.7W

[MGC]

Looks like the shear monster is starting to roar over 90L, that and land will kill any development chance the next couple of days. Maybe when the wave enters the GOM....MGC

[BigA]

Seems to me that this has a better shot if it stays south of the Greater Antilles, given that UL conditions are more likely to be favorable in the W.Carib than the Bahamas in 48-72 hours.

The 12Z GFDL and HWRF runs, and the FOX WRF run http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... shear.html seem to bear this out. It has to stay south of Hispaniola and Cuba to have a chance.

[Ivanhater]

Going to have to watch this once in the Western Caribbean and Gulf