336 Hours out...too close for me!

[Stephanie]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _336.shtml

Looks like in Days 15 & 16 New England and Nova Scotia could get creamed!

It wouldn't take THAT LONG for that African wave to move up there would it?

[Air Force Met]

I would take that long...but the odds of that being a good forecast are slim to none. 300+ hours is too far for mesiscale features. The models have a hard time with the overall patterns that far out...much less the little features embedded within the pattern.

[cycloneye]

As airforce said it is too long the time to know what will happen after 336 hours.Even at 24 hours we know that every day the tropics are changing constantly and offer surprises and from favorable conditions to unfavorable can come in a hurry when it is not forecast to do.

[Scott_inVA]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_336.shtml

Looks like in Days 15 & 16 New England and Nova Scotia could get creamed!

It wouldn't take THAT LONG for that African wave to move up there would it?

A 984MB Low at 384 in the Gulf of Maine. I'd move back to Portland for that But it's a long way off and there's 63 runs between now and then so don't fill the tub and clean out Walmart's batteries just yet.

Scott

[ameriwx2003]

Stephanie.. Like the others have said , forecasts that far out is very unrellable. Here is a link to what the NCEP says about model forecasts past 7 days( the GFS MODEL)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0820.shtml

[Stephanie]

Thanks gang! I should've put a disclaimer on it.

I know how unreliable they are even three days out, but with all of the talk about a potential "monster" storm coming out of that wave off of Africa, I thought I'd add a little fuel to the fire. I think two days ago it was making it a fish storm and much more powerful.

[ameriwx2003]

Stephanie.. No disclaimer needed:):). Hey this time of the year I look at models and my Adrenalin starts pumping when I see the models forecasting something to develope:):):. More so when it has been fairly quiet and we are waiting for the next system to track and talk about. I find I have to rein in my enthusiasm about what models are showing, I tend to get to excited and I sometimes need to sit back and look at the big picture:):):)

[Stephanie]

I think we all do that when there's the potential of the "Big One" happening. That goes for Blizzards and Snowstorms as well.