ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[tailgater]

I don't see all this shear a lot of you are speaking of., as one of our more skill posters said it's most likely weaker today because of the strong westerly flow. Near Jamaica is usally were they can start to consolidate.
WV loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

Shear chart

Mid Shear

[cycloneye]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

VB speed this guy up and look to the south of PR.....see the mid level rotation and the blow up of convection. Then this area seems to tuck up under the new blow up....thats the area I have been watching...

ROCK,if that area is the one that does something in the future,it may avoid the tall mountains of Hispanola.

[South Texas Storms]

Based on those latest models, I would narrow it down to anywhere from Tampico, MX to New Orleans, LA.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[South Texas Storms]

On the latest satellite imagery, it looks like this system is a big squall line moving SW away from Puerto Rico right now.

[KatDaddy]

Looking S of Puerto Rico. Very interesting ROCK! Bear Watch might be on the TX horizon.

[cycloneye]

On the latest satellite imagery, it looks like this system is a big squall line moving SW away from Puerto Rico right now.

Speaking of squalls,I am as I type this post under a squally weather with heavy rain with thunder,lighting and pretty strong gusts,that in my view are in the range of 30-35 mph.Also,power has been intermitent.

[South Texas Storms]

On the latest satellite imagery, it looks like this system is a big squall line moving SW away from Puerto Rico right now.

Speaking of squalls,I am as I type this post under a squally weather with heavy rain with thunder,lighting and pretty strong gusts,that in my view are in the range of 30-35 mph.Also,power has been intermitent.

Stay safe down there cycloneye. Thanks for the updates.

[gatorcane]

Based on the 18z GFS that just came out, it tells me that this situation may be one that a deeper, stronger system actually will not gain as much latitude in the long-term.

For deep systems we look at the wind flow in the 300Mb to 500mb levels of the atmosphere. Check out all of the westerly winds across the GOM by 138 hours:

[South Texas Storms]

I think the 12z Euro solution is much more reasonable than what the GFS has been showing. It doesn't even initialize this system well compared to the Euro so I don't really trust the GFS much right now, even with it's steering currents forecast.

[TheBurn]

[Rgv20]

with the ridge reloading after the trof moves thru a MX landfall is not out of the question. Really depends on where the surface low sets up shop (if ever) and how strong the NGOM death ridge is.

ROCK the ridge is forecast to weaken and move east of TX by the time this wave gets in the western Gulf according to the afternoon AFD from NWS Corpus Christi today: "THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE
FORECAST MODELS KEEP AN OPEN WAVE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE. THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME SHIFTING EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE IN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS."

Read the discussion earlier but the Euro Ensembles have been consistent on keeping the ridge strong thru the weekend. Anyway in my opinion 90l is going to make for an interesting work week ahead in regards to potential development and track.

Saturday July 30


Sunday July 31

[stormreader]

Seems to me that this has a better shot if it stays south of the Greater Antilles, given that UL conditions are more likely to be favorable in the W.Carib than the Bahamas in 48-72 hours.

The 12Z GFDL and HWRF runs, and the FOX WRF run http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... shear.html seem to bear this out. It has to stay south of Hispaniola and Cuba to have a chance.

I think it will stay south of Haiti and Cuba. Just looking at latest loops from NHC, looks like llc is becoming more apparent at the southern end of that expanding mass of convection. Perhaps just my imagination. Maybe a closer look would tell.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

That area south of Puerto Rico-Virgin Islands is what caught my eye a few hours ago. Was pretty sure I was seeing some circulation at the bottom of the convection. But without the floater there is always some doubt. Perhaps it is really a mid-level circulation, but I do think we have a legitimate chance of development with this system.

[Vortex]

taking into consideration the 18Z NAM for example the point that must be enphaziaed is the real potential for "extreme rainfall" amouts across potions of the greater antilles namely the DR and Cuba...The impacts from rainfall alone have the potential to bring about a devastating event over the next 48-72..... It will also likely slow considerably over the next 2-3 days as well....


18Z Nam loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[flwxwatcher]

taking into consideration the 18Z NAM for example the point that must be enphaziaed is the real potential for "extreme rainfall" amouts across potions of the greater antilles namely the DR and Cuba...The impacts from rainfall alone have the potential to bring about a devastating event over the next 48-72..... It will also likely slow considerably over the next 2-3 days as well....


18Z Nam loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

It will intersting to see exactly were the main axis of the wave sets up down the road. I know everyone is talking about this in the W CARIB but the 12z EURO still shows this moving across the islands then emerging off of Cuba in the FL straits / Key west area and into the Gulf.

[gatorcane]

That's because the Euro is showing a weakness over eastern north America in 72 hour caused by a low pressure system traversing southeastern Canada. That would allow a developing system to gain lattitude and/or slow down in speed by day 3 then more west after that. You can see it here:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 1072312!!/

[cycloneye]

I think this has not been posted so far,so here is todays TCPOD and look at the position of a possible fix mission on Monday afternoon if needed.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 19.0N 77.0W AT 25/1800Z.
3. REMARK: BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES AT 26/00Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AS
WELL AS THE INTERACTION OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH THE LAND MASSES OF
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
NEVERTHELESS...PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[wxman57]

I'd put it along 68W as of 6PM CDT, maybe 16N, but there is definitely no LLC yet. Just a wave axis. Convection is expanding and outflow improving. Note that 850mb winds in its immediate path increase to 25-30 kts, or more. Not good for near-term development, but those winds forecast to drop to 15 kts near the Yucatan. That is good for low-level convergence. GFS and Euro move the ridge over Texas east to the Carolinas by Thursday, opening up the western Gulf for a northerly turn toward TX if it does develop, or even if it doesn't develop.

[South Texas Storms]

I'd put it along 68W as of 6PM CDT, maybe 16N, but there is definitely no LLC yet. Just a wave axis. Convection is expanding and outflow improving. Note that 850mb winds in its immediate path increase to 25-30 kts, or more. Not good for near-term development, but those winds forecast to drop to 15 kts near the Yucatan. That is good for low-level convergence. GFS and Euro move the ridge over Texas east to the Carolinas by Thursday, opening up the western Gulf for a northerly turn toward TX if it does develop, or even if it doesn't develop.

Thanks wxman for providing some good news for us Texans. I would love it if this made landfall in Texas as weak TS Don helping to finally end our drought.

[vbhoutex]

taking into consideration the 18Z NAM for example the point that must be enphaziaed is the real potential for "extreme rainfall" amouts across potions of the greater antilles namely the DR and Cuba...The impacts from rainfall alone have the potential to bring about a devastating event over the next 48-72..... It will also likely slow considerably over the next 2-3 days as well....


18Z Nam loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

It will intersting to see exactly were the main axis of the wave sets up down the road. I know everyone is talking about this in the W CARIB but the 12z EURO still shows this moving across the islands then emerging off of Cuba in the FL straits / Key west area and into the Gulf.

Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on your pov, either way 90L enters the GOM will probably make this a W GOM problem due to the ridge beginning to build back into the S already. All of the South, at least from AL West is still in need of plenty of rain relief. None of us needs winds to go along with that though. Beggars can't be choosers though.