ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[TwisterFanatic]

84 hours:

[cycloneye]

Tonight definitely no 00z tropical models ran.

Also,GFDL and HWRF were not runned. I suspect a big change in position and tracks,when the 06z run is out.

[South Texas Storms]

Tonight definitely no 00z tropical models ran.

Also,GFDL and HWRF were not runned. I suspect a big change in position and tracks,when the 06z run is out.

Why not? What is going on?

[NDG]

Tonight definitely no 00z tropical models ran.

Also,GFDL and HWRF were not runned. I suspect a big change in position and tracks,when the 06z run is out.

I even think that it may not be until 12z that they run them again, they may wait to see what is left after it crosses Hispaniola tonight.

But since there is nothing at the surface to begin with it may not take much for a vorticity to get going right away.

[cycloneye]

Tonight definitely no 00z tropical models ran.

Also,GFDL and HWRF were not runned. I suspect a big change in position and tracks,when the 06z run is out.

Why not? What is going on?

This is only speculation on my part,but I think they decided to wait for the system to start from zero with something that they can track and feed to the models. But I know there are other reasons.

[South Texas Storms]

I was really interested to see what they showed tonight. Oh well...

[cycloneye]

Tonight definitely no 00z tropical models ran.

Also,GFDL and HWRF were not runned. I suspect a big change in position and tracks,when the 06z run is out.

I even think that it may not be until 12z that they run them again, they may wait to see what is left after it crosses Hispaniola tonight.

But since there is nothing at the surface to begin with it may not take much for a vorticity to get going right away.

90L may be deactivated if no runs are made between 12-24 hours since the last 18z.

[vbhoutex]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

VB speed this guy up and look to the south of PR.....see the mid level rotation and the blow up of convection. Then this area seems to tuck up under the new blow up....thats the area I have been watching...

I just looked at the loop again. I might concede a large mid-level rotation, might. What you describe as tucking under the convection blow up looks to me like the convection just growing at that point as opposed to the rotation(if there is one)tucking under it. I don't see any kind of consolidated center. I have been proven wrong in the past and may be this time, but that is what I see. Don't get me wrong-I am watching this closely. Between the ridge currently building in to the South and its' expected Easterly drift/move later in the week 90L has W GOM(possibly TX) written all over what it may become.

[tropicwatch]

not much at the surface ... convection driven by divergence aloft, not much convergence at the surface

Cool graphic

[Ptarmigan]

The slower 90L develops, the better chance it enters the Gulf of Mexico, which means it may have a chance at development. We shall see.

[ROCK]

I like the way you narrowed it down, ROCK.

I try SG.... no model runs tonight means something is up...curious...

[ROCK]

we have seen this before.....convection waning in the middle of the night...once if ever it taps the surface it will be game on...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Aric Dunn]

Sorry peeps.. but there is nothing there... have to wait a couple days.... at least..

[ROCK]

nothing to see....please close the thread....

[bamajammer4eva]

I try SG.... no model runs tonight means something is up...curious...

Could this be why???

Code: Select all

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al902011.ren
FSTDA
R
U


[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1811 UTC SAT JUL 23 2011 
   
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. 
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. 
   
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR 
   
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110723 1800 UTC 
   
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS... 
        110723  1800   110724  0600   110724  1800   110725  0600 
   
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 
BAMS    15.9N  63.7W   17.0N  67.3W   18.2N  71.3W   19.0N  75.1W 
BAMD    15.9N  63.7W   16.7N  66.6W   17.7N  69.3W   18.5N  71.8W 
BAMM    15.9N  63.7W   16.8N  67.2W   17.6N  70.6W   18.3N  73.8W 
LBAR    15.9N  63.7W   16.5N  66.9W   17.2N  70.1W   17.9N  73.0W 
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          34KTS          40KTS 
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          34KTS          34KTS 
   
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS... 
        110725  1800   110726  1800   110727  1800   110728  1800 
   
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 
BAMS    19.9N  78.5W   21.1N  83.8W   22.6N  87.9W   24.6N  92.0W 
BAMD    19.3N  74.0W   20.9N  77.4W   21.9N  80.5W   22.6N  84.6W 
BAMM    19.0N  76.7W   20.2N  81.4W   21.4N  85.6W   22.6N  90.2W 
LBAR    18.8N  75.4W   20.9N  78.6W   23.8N  80.2W   25.8N  81.8W 
SHIP        46KTS          55KTS          63KTS          69KTS 
DSHP        43KTS          52KTS          61KTS          66KTS 
   
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... 
LATCUR =  15.9N LONCUR =  63.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  18KT 
LATM12 =  14.8N LONM12 =  59.9W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 =  18KT 
LATM24 =  14.1N LONM24 =  56.4W 
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT 
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   S 
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM 
   
$$ 
NNNN 


[HURAKAN]

Latest

[lester]

The thrill is gone and so is this invest.

[ROCK]

those are the 18z......looks like the deactivated it....I have no idea why though....

[HurricaneWarning92]

Hey everyone, im new to storm2k, and i apologize if i sound inexperienced but i sure will try my best. Anyway, i dont think 90L will develop much in the short term as some of you have said, due to land interaction.