ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[ROCK]

it likes this time of day per Ivan.. .Tonight the convection will probably disappear....tomorrow it should be back over water and water that is the warmest in the basin. Besides the GOM....if that doesnt kick start it nothing will.....just my 2 cents

[GCANE]

GCANE what are your thoughts on 90L's development chances?

Hot towers always do wonders to develop at TC.

Moving into the west Carib now as well.

Best chance for it to develop will be the next 48 hrs.

What do you think?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD SPREAD
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[South Texas Storms]

GCANE what are your thoughts on 90L's development chances?

Hot towers always do wonders to develop at TC.

Moving into the west Carib now as well.

Best chance for it to develop will be the next 48 hrs.

What do you think?

I agree with you in that the best chance for it to develop will be in the next 48 hours. I'm interested to see what it will look like at this time tomorrow.

[Nimbus]

These take a while to close off even when they are not close to land. Could be a TD near the isle of youth if the shear lightens up. There is a big high over the southeast which will create shear blowing towards the wsw.

[jhpigott]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD SPREAD
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN



Uploaded by imageshack.us

Sure looks like most of the energy associated with 90L is either going to go thru or north of Hatiti/Dominican and Cuba. If this happens to get its act together north of the islands in the FL Straits region, anyone think we could see some squally conditions in SFL?

[TwisterFanatic]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD SPREAD
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/5973/atl1n.gif

Uploaded by imageshack.us

Sure looks like most of the energy associated with 90L is either going to go thru or north of Hatiti/Dominican and Cuba. If this happens to get its act together north of the islands in the FL Straits region, anyone think we could see some squally conditions in SFL?

Really shouldn't see any effect in SFL at all, by tomorrow it will be well south of Cuba.

[Ptarmigan]

Massive Hot Tower firing over Haiti.



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... aiti.0.jpg

Quite impressive thunderstorms. Not all is lost yet. Would be nice if we got rain out of it.

[jhpigott]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD SPREAD
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/5973/atl1n.gif

Uploaded by imageshack.us

Sure looks like most of the energy associated with 90L is either going to go thru or north of Hatiti/Dominican and Cuba. If this happens to get its act together north of the islands in the FL Straits region, anyone think we could see some squally conditions in SFL?

Really shouldn't see any effect in SFL at all, by tomorrow it will be well south of Cuba.

If you had said that yesterday I would have 100% bought it. However, yesterday most of the convection was located further south around a mid-level vorcity. Today, most the the convective activity has shifted northward. There has been, at least to my eyes, at northward shift in the convection. I know most of the activity will stay to our south, but it looks to me like the "action" could pass thru the FL Straits, rather than south of Cuba.

[ROCK]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html


speed this loop up, 20 frames, animate 90L...look below DR at the mid level clouds..90L is not over land.. heading towards JAM..dont look at the convection..

[TwisterFanatic]

If you had said that yesterday I would have 100% bought it. However, yesterday most of the convection was located further south around a mid-level vorcity. Today, most the the convective activity has shifted northward. There has been, at least to my eyes, at northward shift in the convection. I know most of the activity will stay to our south, but it looks to me like the "action" could pass thru the FL Straits, rather than south of Cuba.

Don't pay attention to the convection, there is a mid-level spin south of the Dominican Republic, at least to me it looks like it, and that will headed straight west for the time being.

[TwisterFanatic]

Almost looks like a better defined spin just east of Jamaica in the last couple frames there.

[Ivanhater]

Very active wave headed for the Western Caribbean....I'll be watching

[South Texas Storms]

I wonder how this will react when it reaches the very warm waters of the western Caribbean tomorrow and Tuesday. I think this has a chance to surprise some of us in a few days. Time will tell.

[cycloneye]

It's now five runs in a row without any update of the Tropical Models since the last run at 18z of Saturday. But I suspect that they will restart the runs as it's going to enter the Western Caribbean soon.

[South Texas Storms]

It's now five runs in a row without any update of the Tropical Models since the last run at 18z of Saturday. But I suspect that they will restart the runs as it's going to enter the Western Caribbean soon.

Luis do you think they will run models on this again starting at 12z tomorrow morning?

[cycloneye]

It's now five runs in a row without any update of the Tropical Models since the last run at 18z of Saturday. But I suspect that they will restart the runs as it's going to enter the Western Caribbean soon.

Luis do you think they will run models on this again starting at 12z tomorrow morning?

A good possibility,but they can resume at 06z. We will see what happens.

[NDG]

I think that land interaction will continue to be a problem for 90L over the next day or two, the vorticity has come out of Hispaniola tonight but is ready to go back over land into eastern Cuba.
The way Cuba is shaped is not going helped it to stay far away from land that much.
I think that it will not be until it moves over the extreme SE GOM when it has the best chance.

[South Texas Storms]

I don't think land interaction will be a problem for 90L after tonight. I think this system will stay just south of Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico between Cuba and the Yucatan.

[South Texas Storms]

Tonight's 0z NAM really starts to develop this system in about 30 hours just south of central Cuba.