![Image](http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc11/WPAC/94W.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20110723.0201.mtsat2.x.vis1km_high.94WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-49N-1497E.100pc.jpg)
4.9 N 149.7 E
I think this is within the area hinted by the models where another system will be forming.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 4.9N 149.7E IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 4.7N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. THE SAME ANIMATION
SHOWS FORMATIVE BUT DISORGANIZED BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
OBSERVATONS FROM CHUUK SHOW SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AND PRESSURE
FALLS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVING CONVECTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
StormingB81 wrote:Models are all over for this one...had a landfall yesterday near tokyo..today has it going near southern Japan..should be an interesting few days see what the models keep saying and what it does...
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