ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#621 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:50 am

90L status update:

As of the time of this post (8:50 AM EDT) 90L is still active and has not been deactivated,despite no tropical model runs for almost 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#622 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 25, 2011 7:56 am

cycloneye wrote:90L status update:

As of the time of this post (8:50 AM EDT) 90L is still active and has not been deactivated,despite no tropical model runs for almost 48 hours.


not surprised. the potential still exists but the last couple days the land interaction pretty much made it impossible but now that its slowing down and in the western carrib it should slowly get a better chance to develop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#623 Postby ronjon » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:05 am

Appears to be a CC spin just off the southeast coast of Cuba just west of Santiago De Cuba. It's probably at the 700 mb level as thats where the strongest vorticity is now. Appears that this will stay south of Cuba where environmental conditions are not that hostile. Still needs to be watched. The wave will slow as mid-level ridging weakens and a trough develops over the SE US the next few days.

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CARIB&isingle=multiple&itype=vis

Note: Lowest land based pressure now at Montego Bay JAM at 1013 mb. Pressures while still high have dropped 1-2 mb over the last 24 hrs.
Last edited by ronjon on Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#624 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:06 am

Not a bad little flare along the wave axis between Jamaica and Cuba with overshooting top and expanding cirrus outflow.

Obs on north shore of Jamaica and SE shore of Cuba are showing winds basically out of the north.

Buoys in west Carib are tending some what lower at about 1013mb.

Will be interesting to see what happens once the wave clears Jamaica.
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Re: Re:

#625 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:20 am

TwisterFanatic wrote:
ROCK wrote:
NDG wrote:If tonight's NAM verifies it will be the first this year it develops a storm with no global model support, I lost count of how many ghost storms it has try to develop this year, lol.


show me the global who sniffed out Bret..... :lol: wasnt the jacked up GFS thats for sure....


or Cindy for that matter.


That's because they were both formed out of a frontal boundary with a very small scale at the surface which models have a tough time on picking up, and that was noticed even after Bret formed. But they did forecast the formation of their H85 vorticity a few days before they both formed.
Global models do better with larger scale disturbances like 90L is.
A good example of how well they did in forecasting no development was with 94L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#626 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:26 am

This definitely still has potential in my opinion.

As others have posted you can clearly see some rotation south
of eastern Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#627 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:27 am

GCANE wrote:Not a bad little flare along the wave axis between Jamaica and Cuba with overshooting top and expanding cirrus outflow.

Obs on north shore of Jamaica and SE shore of Cuba are showing winds basically out of the north.

Buoys in west Carib are tending some what lower at about 1013mb.

Will be interesting to see what happens once the wave clears Jamaica.



agree...that flare up looks like a surface low is setting up.....notice the lower clouds inflow into that convection....
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#628 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:46 am

If the vorticity can stay away from Cuba, who knows they may start tropical model runs on it again at 18z, IMO.
If the vorticity is the same that has been present in the past 48 hrs, based on positioning it has now slowed down in 15-20 mph range during the past 24 hrs when the previous 24 hrs I estimate it that it was in the 20-25 mph.
They should had kept chances at least 10% while the system is in the Caribbean, hostile UL winds are far away on the GOM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#629 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:47 am

To quote Monty Python:

"I'm not dead yet"
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#630 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:53 am

All obs on the east end of Jamaica now have winds turning to the NNW.

Convection is responding very well to the surface convergence.

IMHO, NHC may have been looking a little too far west on the 8AM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#631 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jul 25, 2011 8:55 am

GCANE wrote:All obs on the east end of Jamaica now have winds turning to the NNW.

Convection is responding very well to the surface convergence.

IMHO, NHC may have been looking a little too far west on the 8AM.


Completely agree. I'm looking at radar from Pilon and while I don't see anything too impressive, it appears that there is some broad cyclonic turning now evident on radar. It is relatively weak on the west side but definitely better than it used to be.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#632 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:04 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:
GCANE wrote:All obs on the east end of Jamaica now have winds turning to the NNW.

Convection is responding very well to the surface convergence.

IMHO, NHC may have been looking a little too far west on the 8AM.


Completely agree. I'm looking at radar from Pilon and while I don't see anything too impressive, it appears that there is some broad cyclonic turning now evident on radar. It is relatively weak on the west side but definitely better than it used to be.


Image
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#633 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:23 am

This is where I see the general area of vorticity with 90L, with a good portion of it inland possibly. Later this afternoon it should be over open waters so maybe a better of better organization.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#634 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:23 am

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0935 AM EDT MON 25 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-055

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#635 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:26 am

At 10:15 AM EDT ATCF deactivated 90L

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 902011.ren

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al902011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107251415
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
[/size]
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#636 Postby chrisnnavarre » Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:26 am

Anyone ready to declare cyclogenesis for Don... it's really the first significant wave to pass south of Cuba from the Atlantic this year isn't it.

I have a feeling that this is going to be a long season....

:roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#637 Postby chrisnnavarre » Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:29 am

chrisnnavarre wrote:Anyone ready to declare cyclogenesis for Don... it's really the first significant wave to pass south of Cuba from the Atlantic this year isn't it.

I have a feeling that this is going to be a long season....

:roll:



Obviously the NHC is not....especially since they just deactivated the Invest, and just when it started turning. So when they reactivate it will it still be 90L or a new 91L invest?
Last edited by chrisnnavarre on Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:34 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#638 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:32 am

I'm wondering if Jamaica is acting to slow down some of the fast easterly flow to the south of the "center" of 90L through friction due to land. As a result this would naturally create a vorticity effect with the northern half (between Cuba and Jamaica) moving quicker than the southern half.

Also why deactivate the invest at its most promising time in its life? I guess they really gave up on this thing. Not sure if I blame them.
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Re:

#639 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:34 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:I'm wondering if Jamaica is acting to slow down some of the fast easterly flow to the south of the "center" of 90L through friction due to land. As a result this would naturally create a vorticity effect with the northern half (between Cuba and Jamaica) moving quicker than the southern half.

Also why deactivate the invest at its most promising time in its life? I guess they really gave up on this thing. Not sure if I blame them.


In the past,some invests that have been deactivated,have been again activated,so dont discount the return of 90L as invest once again.
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#640 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 25, 2011 9:38 am

Well it probably wouldn't get invested in its current state so not too shocking its been decativated.

I also wouldn't be too shocked to see 90L come back again as well at some point in the near future.
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