ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[NDG]

At 10:15 AM EDT ATCF deactivated 90L

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 902011.ren

NHC_ATCF
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I guess the NHC gave up on it, so definitely forget about tropical model runs getting run later today or over the next couple of days. Most likely they decided that the global models have been right all along.
So not unless we see a huge re-organization or a sign of any LLC developing it will take a heck of an arm twist to make them change their arm to re-activate 90L. Next!

[SouthDadeFish]

In the past,some invests that have been deactivated,have been again activated,so dont discount the return of 90L as invest once again.

I'm not at all. In fact I see some northerly winds on the west side of the circulation now on visible imagery.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... color=cyan

[wxman57]

I'd still give it a 30% shot at development beyond 48 hrs. Most likely, though, it won't develop.

[HouTXmetro]

IMO structure looks much more impressive....We have seen strange things happen around Jamacia in the past...Are the tall Mountains in Cuba and interaction with Jamacia actually aiding in tightening up 90L?

[KWT]

Yeah I think thats where I am at Wxman57, I did think this one had a good chance but its gone so far down the pan so to speak its going to be a long road up to where it could develop...

[rockyman]

As expected, the system no longer appears to be racing to the west. I'm looking forward to the next convective burst.

[Stormcenter]

Well it is that time of the season so I would never write it off.

[flwxwatcher]

While it might be to early to completly write this off, the fork is sitting nearby.

[ROCK]

either they are thinking the upper air environment will squash it or land interaction. I can see them not keeping it due to model support because there is none. But what if the models dont take into account that 90L has been over land most of the time the last 48hrs....just something to ponder....

[fci]

No model runs for 48 hours prompting the disappearance from our S2K map should have been a pretty good indicator that 90L was set to be deactivated for now.

[Sanibel]

Weak to begin with then the 1-2 punch of the July Caribbean and islands.

TWC says even if it makes it to the GOM shear will be too high. Most likely a moisture-bringer to Texas.

[KWT]

To be Sanibel, that wouldn't be a bad thing,l just gotta hope it doesn't end up tracking further west then expected and into N.Mexico and only given S.Texas the much needed rain.

[lebron23]

Ill give it a 20-30 percent chance still. Even if it doesnt develop looks like rain for my area

[ROCK]

I give it more than 30%....the mid level vorticity is there and vigorious..easy to see...really close to the coast if not over water right now...I am thinking improvement in organization the rest of the day if a LLC takes hold and taps the hottest water in the basin...


850MB vort
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


700MB vort
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


What shear?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[ROCK]

Weak to begin with then the 1-2 punch of the July Caribbean and islands.

TWC says even if it makes it to the GOM shear will be too high. Most likely a moisture-bringer to Texas.

TWC? not sure I would agree with any of their forecasts. Especially in the tropics...

[cycloneye]

This is the 12z surface analysis by TAFB.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[floridasun78]

here you can see spin south Jamaica their weak spin that area http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

[ROCK]

here you can see spin south Jamaica their weak spin that area http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

go to the Nasa site for a 1KM view...this is 4KM and hard to see low level clouds....

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

select frames, and click on X90L to get a 1KM view...then animate....a whole lot better....

[ROCK]

man where is everyone? we have a potential TW forming in the carib and every one is writing it off!! What happen to the days when 2K would be blowing up over this...



there is no shear over this thing....the convection is starting to fan out rather than be blown off....waiting on an anticyclone to build...need an LLC and its come back would be complete.

[Florida1118]

man where is everyone? we have a potential TW forming in the carib and every one is writing it off!! What happen to the days when 2K would be blowing up over this...



there is no shear over this thing....the convection is starting to fan out rather than be blown off....waiting on an anticyclone to build...need an LLC and its come back would be complete.

Idk the 0% chance they give it is kinda depressing if your looking for formation...lol