ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[cycloneye]

If trends continues,reactivation of 90L is increasing.

How long do you think they will wait for persistence? I'm guessing if it is like this for another 12 hours, 90L will be back. Maybe sooner at the current rate?

I can't answer that with authority,but I guess they would wait a few hours to see what occurs with surface observations to then pull the trigger.

[KWT]

One thing I'm pretty confident is the NHC will be upping its chances back to at least 10%. Nothing much at the surface but the mid level rotation is very obvious at the moment and convection is increasing.

This area is well known to give weak TW a real good kick up the behind and set them off...

[Stormcenter]

Okay assuming this were to develop in the GOM. Where might it end up as of right now?

[ROCK]

and all of you guys jumped ship today.. .I see you all are back aboard...welcome back...I held the fort down while you were away...

[shell70]

So where is this thing headed if it develops? We might be headed down to Marathon tomorrow afternoon from Alabama and I would hate to get down there with my girls and end up with bad weather.

[KWT]

and all of you guys jumped ship today.. .I see you all are back aboard...welcome back...I held the fort down while you were away...

I still think odds are better that it doesn't form then it does, but ya know what the NW Caribbean is like, it does tend to be a bit of a hotspot for waves like this one to at least attempt development, seen it many many times in just the last 5 years...

[ROCK]

One thing I'm pretty confident is the NHC will be upping its chances back to at least 10%. Nothing much at the surface but the mid level rotation is very obvious at the moment and convection is increasing.

This area is well known to give weak TW a real good kick up the behind and set them off...

agree...they should never have dropped to 0% based on what I have seen all day...

[South Texas Storms]

and all of you guys jumped ship today.. .I see you all are back aboard...welcome back...I held the fort down while you were away...

ROCK me and you both never gave up hope with this system. I said last night that I think this may surprise some of us once in the NW Caribbean. The current satellite imagery and the 12z Euro makes me feel even better now.

[ROCK]

and all of you guys jumped ship today.. .I see you all are back aboard...welcome back...I held the fort down while you were away...

ROCK me and you both never gave up hope with this system. I said last night that I think this may surprise some of us once in the NW Caribbean. The current satellite imagery and the 12z Euro makes me feel even better now.

yeah I was just giving the board the business....I think STx will see some good rains from this....

[South Texas Storms]

So where is this thing headed if it develops? We might be headed down to Marathon tomorrow afternoon from Alabama and I would hate to get down there with my girls and end up with bad weather.

12z Euro brings it into south TX. Anywhere from northern Mexico to LA has a shot at this imo.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ronjon]

Pressure's down to 29.88 (1012 mb) at Owen AP on Grand Cayman and Cayo Largo Del Sur, Cuba. Pressures dropped from 2-3 mb since 24 hrs ago. Convection increasing and sustaining with CC motion. I agree with wxman57, percentages have increased for development and I'd anticipate it to be reactivated tonight by NHC.

[South Texas Storms]

and all of you guys jumped ship today.. .I see you all are back aboard...welcome back...I held the fort down while you were away...

ROCK me and you both never gave up hope with this system. I said last night that I think this may surprise some of us once in the NW Caribbean. The current satellite imagery and the 12z Euro makes me feel even better now.

yeah I was just giving the board the business....I think STx will see some good rains from this....

Yeah I agree. I just don't see how the GFS shows no rain for us in south TX for the next 192 hours...

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm so confused... my gut is telling me this thing is really coming together, but I go to the NHC's site and see that 0% yellow circle there lol

[tropicwatch]

Buoy to the west taking a little dip in pressure.

Buoy 42057 located at 17N 81.50W reporting pressure of 29.85 or 1010.8mb as of 1950hrs GMT.

Tropicwatch

[SouthDadeFish]

Buoy to the west taking a little dip in pressure.

Buoy 42057 located at 17N 81.50W reporting pressure of 29.85 or 1010.8mb as of 1950hrs GMT.

[url=tropicwatch.info]Tropicwatch[/url]

How low can it go?

[wxman57]

I still think odds are better that it doesn't form then it does, but ya know what the NW Caribbean is like, it does tend to be a bit of a hotspot for waves like this one to at least attempt development, seen it many many times in just the last 5 years...

I don't think anyone here is thinking otherwise, just that development chances are not zero. I'd say 40% is a good estimate. That's still a better chance it won't develop than it will, but it's a lot greater than zero.

[TexasF6]

I have never believed 90L would die...I do, however, want it to land in Texas. And rain, for like--the rest of the summer!!!! 90L is a fighter....

[Ivanhater]

I still think odds are better that it doesn't form then it does, but ya know what the NW Caribbean is like, it does tend to be a bit of a hotspot for waves like this one to at least attempt development, seen it many many times in just the last 5 years...

I don't think anyone here is thinking otherwise, just that development chances are not zero. I'd say 40% is a good estimate. That's still a better chance it won't develop than it will, but it's a lot greater than zero.

Much higher than average.

[NDG]

that is not a ULL....this thing has multiple vortexs rotating around the main MLC...

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


go to water vapor loop.....and animate

I am not saying that the system is an ULL, just that the vorticity wsw from Jamaica is in the upper levels while the mid and H85 vorticity is NW of Jamaica.

[ROCK]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

not at the surface but close...