ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

latitude_20 · #761 Postby **latitude_20** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:38 pm

Wouldn't the steering indicate a path into the YP?

Steve H. · #762 Postby **Steve H.** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:39 pm

I think its coming back from the dead :grrr:

Has a bit of a circulation on latest Visibles and heading west bound.

#763 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:43 pm

12z Euro shows it shooting through the Yucatan Channel. I don't think it will hit the YP.

#764 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:43 pm

H85 vorticity is becoming very distinct now, now near 20N and 79W, while surface convergence is increasing underneath it.

#765 Postby **lester** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:45 pm

Ivanhater wrote:You know better than that Lester. When making absolute statements on a forecast, use the S2K disclaimer.

Now that it has slowed in the Western Caribbean we are getting a much sharper wave and the outflow is improving.

Sorry, but I'm not going to be too excited given that it did this before before poofing at night

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crimi481 · #766 Postby **crimi481** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:50 pm

Virtually every system (last few years)the NHC has pointed towards Gulf, ends up breaking into small pieces energy -and gets entrained around mid-USA "circle" of high pressure
Then the energy goes up around the high - causing huge storms in Nebreaska and mid west.

Landstorms have been bigger and more damaging than Storms over water (in our Gulf region of planet)
Result of "global warming"? Radiation? Gulf Methane releases -hanging over Gulf waters. Don't know. Do you?

#767 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:55 pm

Just because surface pressures are down a good 2-3 mb in the NW Caribbean from 24 hrs ago should be good enough to re-activate 90L at 00z

#768 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 4:56 pm

Hmmmm it does look very very interesting this late afternoon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

#769 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:03 pm

lester wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:You know better than that Lester. When making absolute statements on a forecast, use the S2K disclaimer.

Now that it has slowed in the Western Caribbean we are getting a much sharper wave and the outflow is improving.

Sorry, but I'm not going to be too excited given that it did this before before poofing at night

Sent from my ADR6300 using Tapatalk

It is fine to have your opinion but next time add "in my opinion" or the S2K disclaimer.

KWT · #770 Postby **KWT** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:03 pm

Convection is increasing, I wonder whether the increase in rotation is also being helped by the shape of Cuba's coastline?

#771 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:06 pm

KWT wrote:Convection is increasing, I wonder whether the increase in rotation is also being helped by the shape of Cuba's coastline?

I was wondering that too KWT. Also, I wonder if the daily afternoon convection firing over Cuba is going to feed into this system later this evening.

PTrackerLA · #772 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:12 pm

Sure looks like it's organizing more but after being burned badly by this system last Friday (thought for sure it was on it's way to a TD :wink:

) I'm going to reserve judgment until tomorrow. Let's see if it can maintain any convection overnight. One interesting thing is our rain chances have sky-rocketed through the end of the work week. Looks like moisture is here to stay which is great for the drought!

HurricaneWarning92 · #773 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:15 pm

didnt someone mention on this thread or somewhere else that TWC said the GOM will have high shear around when ex 90L arrives there? IMO, if that were the case, i dont think it has much chance since it would most likely just get ripped apart, if it develops into something.

#774 Postby **Tireman4** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:19 pm

Folks, Wxman 57 called this one awhile back. He is now saying 40 percent chance of something happening. Give it time. He stated Monday/Tuesday is the day to observe.

Wxman 57:
I don't think anyone here is thinking otherwise, just that development chances are not zero. I'd say 40% is a good estimate. That's still a better chance it won't develop than it will, but it's a lot greater than zero.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#775 Postby **HurricaneBrain** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:20 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:didnt someone mention on this thread or somewhere else that TWC said the GOM will have high shear around when ex 90L arrives there? IMO, if that were the case, i dont think it has much chance since it would most likely just get ripped apart, if it develops into something.

Well of course it would get ripped by high shear... The problem is, TWC doesn't know what their talking about half the time when it comes to the tropics.

#776 Postby **TexasF6** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:22 pm

I do not believe, TWC can be taken seriously unless their Chief Pro Met Hurricaneologist said it, IMO. Otherwise I'd pay attention to WXMAN57, cycloneye, Rock, Aric Dunn, and other moderators/posters of note on this site! Just my two shillings worth!

#777 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:24 pm

Definitely a spin on the SAT imagery this evening. Bear in mind alot of the convection is convection caused by the heating of the day over Cuba. That should die off later on this evening.

Take away that convection and there is not a whole lot left really.

That leaves some convection south of Cuba and west of Jamaica. But notice the clouds streaming quickly from West to East in the NW Caribbean sea to the west of this system.

That should undercut this system and prevent it from getting going too quickly. Of course never say never!

link to IR image:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

#778 Postby **lester** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:25 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
lester wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:You know better than that Lester. When making absolute statements on a forecast, use the S2K disclaimer.

Now that it has slowed in the Western Caribbean we are getting a much sharper wave and the outflow is improving.

Sorry, but I'm not going to be too excited given that it did this before before poofing at night

Sent from my ADR6300 using Tapatalk

It is fine to have your opinion but next time add "in my opinion" or the S2K disclaimer.

It's in the NHC's opinion too..for now

Sent from my ADR6300 using Tapatalk

crimi481 · #779 Postby **crimi481** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:26 pm

Kinda think forecasters around world having lots trouble with -what appears to be a dramatic shift/change in planets werather patterns. Its nuts..

HurricaneWarning92 · #780 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:27 pm

HurricaneBrain- You may be right. i always thought TWC was way too negative about something developing. As if they dont want to say something that would make people panic for no reason. But that is just my opinion.

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