Season Cancel!

[cycloneye]

The season is only in a pre season mode so to speak,as from now on,things will pick up rather quickly.

[ConvergenceZone]

that's an awesome map! It really does put it in perspective and allows one to get more of a visual idea of where we are in the season.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Nice map cycloneye ALmost forgot how busy the sw carib and gulf can become in september.

[dwsqos2]

Maybe it was the 0Z Euro's prog of basically no tcs for the next ~8 days. But yeah August is irritating me.

92L's future looks bleak; if current modeling for 93L is to be believed, then another week could pass before tc genesis; the stuff in the subtropical latitudes bores me. Yawnnn.

The 12Z gfs makes me sleepy. I see a couple of EPAC tcs and zip in the Atlantic. Nothing screams active season at the moment.

August 14 EDIT-I would really just be happy to see an average-sized strong tropical storm somewhere south of 20N. Seriously, I am sick of the small tcs.

The 0Z gfs still makes me sleepy.

[KWT]

Very wierd season thus far, in many ways its behaving like an El nino season but then again conditoonws can't be that bad given we are now on TD7...which is well ahead of average.

Really just need to see a big one some point soon, fish or not...most people are getting a little fed up with these recurving TS systems...that aren't getting beyond 55kts...

[Frank2]

Yes, if Gertie forms (unlikely right now) that would make 7 weak TS's - an unusual season since it'd be above normal per the number, but below normal for intensity...

As you said, similar to an El Nino seaon in some ways - must be that big magnet in France (lol)...

So, we have just another 5-6 weeks of active CV season until that's it (usually most seasons on average end towards the end of September), but the NHC would be unable to say it's been an "above average" season unless they specify that is concerning the number of systems only...

Frank

[Florida1118]

Well as I see it, we are fine. Danielle came on the 21st in 2010, and looky there, 5MH and 12 overall. We have ALOT of season left, and theres already doubt this season will have many if any hurricanes. Im not even going with the models this season, given they have failed over and over again, even with Tropical waves/lows such as 92L and 93L. And if you want big monsters, there were a few already. Just not in this basin. I think unless we have a 2005 were we get 5+ NS and a few hurricanes by mid Aug, people are going to yell at the lack of storms that are intense. Man how did you guys live in 2009...

[KWT]

To be fair to 2009 Bill was about to form and that became a very impressive hurricane.

Still fairly early days when it comes to hurricanes, we really are just at the start of what you could call peak season (IMO from 15th August to 15th October) though obviously the Caribbean can keep on going for a bit longer then that as we've seen many times before.

We could well end up being 2 and a bit weeks ahead of 2010 if TD7 develops into a TS today or tomorrow

[jinftl]

Seriously, Tropical Storm Claudette was the only storm during 2009 to make landfall in the United States, near Pensacola Beach.

Instead of approaching the 7th named system by mid-August like this year, the first storm in 2009, Tropical Storm Ana did not form until August 12th and fell apart the next day, 1100 miles east of the Islands.

We had no named storms between September 8, 2009 and October 4, 2009. Can you imagine???

Well as I see it, we are fine. Danielle came on the 21st in 2010, and looky there, 5MH and 12 overall. We have ALOT of season left, and theres already doubt this season will have many if any hurricanes. Im not even going with the models this season, given they have failed over and over again, even with Tropical waves/lows such as 92L and 93L. And if you want big monsters, there were a few already. Just not in this basin. I think unless we have a 2005 were we get 5+ NS and a few hurricanes by mid Aug, people are going to yell at the lack of storms that are intense. Man how did you guys live in 2009...

[Frank2]

Well, I'd still have to disagree about the end of the season - the old Miami song "October, all over!" is usually true when it comes to the hurricane season, meaning that we have about 6-8 weeks left of active season - not counting any exceptions after that - so, we'll see, but hot summers are usually replaced by early winters and a diving northerly branch of the jet stream, and for certain that'll put and end to the season...

Just this morning - I woke up late for church because we've already lost almost 40 minutes of sunrise and thought it was still before 6 when it was already 6:40, so a sure sign of Fall is here...

Frank

[Florida1118]

Still, I thought we learned last year that you dont just say season over until it is December 1st. Do I need to start quoting what we all said (Yes including me lol) about last years cancel? It was ALOT more than this year, seemed most people thought the season would be a 2009 repeat.

[jinftl]

Except for the fact that October ranks as the month that has had the most hurricane strikes on South FL!!!

Also, 90% of hurricane strikes in south FL have occurred between August 15 and October 15, so actually our real hurricane season starts tomorrow!!! (and we need to look southwest for most of our storms, not to the east)

From NWS Miami:

In fact, October has been South Florida's most active month in terms of hurricanes, with 19 striking the area in the last 159 years. September saw the second-highest number, with 15.

Well, I'd still have to disagree about the end of the season - the old Miami song "October, all over!" is usually true when it comes to the hurricane season, meaning that we have about 6-8 weeks left of active season - not counting any exceptions after that - so, we'll see, but hot summers are usually replaced by early winters and a diving northerly branch of the jet stream, and for certain that'll put and end to the season...

Just this morning - I woke up late for church because we've already lost almost 40 minutes of sunrise and thought it was still before 6 when it was already 6:40, so a sure sign of Fall is here...

Frank

[Patrick99]

Yeah, I'm pretty tired of recurving TDs, marginal TSs, and tropical waves. This season's pretty boring so far. But, at least in my neck of the woods, climatology says it doesn't really get going until right about....now, with most of our activity occurring in September and October. Sometimes July-August recurves due to trough turns into big double-barreled high come mid-late September....see 1998.

[ConvergenceZone]

Season is far from over, BUT we do seem to be undergoing a trend lately, (based upon the last few years) is that we are seeing a decent amount of tropical storms and canes, but the intensity seems to be really dropping off.

Not complaining, but it does seem like the ones that do intensity are always heading out to sea. This year so far seems to that way as well, with no change in sight..... Strange how tropical patterns change like this throughout the years.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yeah, I'm pretty tired of recurving TDs, marginal TSs, and tropical waves. This season's pretty boring so far. But, at least in my neck of the woods, climatology says it doesn't really get going until right about....now, with most of our activity occurring in September and October. Sometimes July-August recurves due to trough turns into big double-barreled high come mid-late September....see 1998.

Well, like I was mentioned yesterday, if by the first week of September, the conditions out it the Atlantic/Carib still looks like they do today, then I'm going to start thinking that 2011 might be one of those activity years, but the first week of September is still two weeks away.

[Florida1118]

Yeah, I'm pretty tired of recurving TDs, marginal TSs, and tropical waves. This season's pretty boring so far. But, at least in my neck of the woods, climatology says it doesn't really get going until right about....now, with most of our activity occurring in September and October. Sometimes July-August recurves due to trough turns into big double-barreled high come mid-late September....see 1998.

Well, like I was mentioned yesterday, if by the first week of September, the conditions out it the Atlantic/Carib still looks like they do today, then I'm going to start thinking that 2011 might be one of those activity years, but the first week of September is still two weeks away.

I do believe the MJO is coming around, and will be decreasing dry air? So eh, imo we are on track.

[jinftl]

Yet to be tapped into, the TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) in the NW Caribbean and Gulf is higher right now than it was in August 2008 and August 2005 (the year of the famous Loop Current and the shot of steroids it gave Katrina and Rita). This is potential high octane fuel for systems that make it to the western caribbean from the east...or for systems that develop in this region late season (i.e., Mitch and Wilma).

Current TCHP:





TCHP August 2008:




TCHP August 2005:

[StormClouds63]

17/9/5 was the August Colorado State update ... right now, with Gert added, we are 7/0/0. This means the remainder of the season, if the forecast verifies, would be 10/9/5. We'll see.

[StormClouds63]

Maybe Harvey will be the one to reach hurricane status.

[jinftl]

Or at least by the time we hit Alpha, Beta, or Gamma at the rate we are going with named systems...

Maybe Harvey will be the one to reach hurricane status.