ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

It's baaaaaack

[HURAKAN]

00z

AL, 90, 2011072600, , BEST, 0, 192N, 798W, 25, 1011, DB

[cycloneye]

00z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 260012
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0012 UTC TUE JUL 26 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110726 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110726  0000   110726  1200   110727  0000   110727  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.2N  79.8W   20.0N  82.6W   20.7N  84.8W   21.3N  86.8W
BAMD    19.2N  79.8W   19.8N  81.5W   20.4N  83.1W   21.0N  84.8W
BAMM    19.2N  79.8W   19.9N  82.1W   20.5N  84.0W   21.1N  85.8W
LBAR    19.2N  79.8W   19.9N  82.1W   20.9N  84.3W   21.8N  86.6W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          39KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110728  0000   110729  0000   110730  0000   110731  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.2N  88.5W   24.4N  92.4W   26.4N  96.6W   28.1N 101.0W
BAMD    21.5N  86.7W   22.7N  91.1W   23.6N  96.0W   24.3N 101.3W
BAMM    21.8N  87.6W   23.5N  91.8W   25.1N  96.7W   26.5N 101.7W
LBAR    22.9N  88.9W   25.9N  93.3W   28.7N  96.7W   30.6N  99.7W
SHIP        46KTS          56KTS          67KTS          74KTS
DSHP        46KTS          56KTS          67KTS          32KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.2N LONCUR =  79.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  18.6N LONM12 =  77.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  18.1N LONM24 =  73.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[wxman57]

That's a bit east of the pouch location estimate (20.5N/81W):
http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/satanalatl ... _CIMSS.png

[NDG]

They are probably going by the mid level vorticity.

[cycloneye]

Uploaded by imageshack.us

[Ivanhater]

New SHIPS takes it up to Hurricane status in the Gulf

[cycloneye]

ROCK, Michael, what do you think?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

New SHIPS takes it up to Hurricane status in the Gulf

Yes, up to 74 knots, or 85 mph.

[NDG]

BTW, I think they put the best track location too far south, it should had been closer to the 20th latitude if not more like 20.2N

[Ivanhater]

ROCK, Michael, what do you think?

Interesting that SHIPS is aggressive with this

[ROCK]

New SHIPS takes it up to Hurricane status in the Gulf

Reactivated imagine that.... We have been saying that all day.....NHC still at 0%? what are they afraid of? very curious on their part...

[Ivanhater]

New SHIPS takes it up to Hurricane status in the Gulf

Reactivated imagine that.... We have been saying that all day.....NHC still at 0%? what are they afraid of? very curious on their part...

Depends on who is writing the package...I'd bet there is some commotion going on over at the NHC tonight

[ROCK]

85mph... a beefy cat 1 ....lest not forget the entire GOM is like the LC right now. The beach water running in the upper 80's along the NGOM...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

New SHIPS takes it up to Hurricane status in the Gulf

Reactivated imagine that.... We have been saying that all day.....NHC still at 0%? what are they afraid of? very curious on their part...

This may sound crazy, but I think there is some kind of policy that they follow. If the system is not an invest, they go with ~0%. However, if it is an invest, they go higher.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

85mph... a beefy cat 1 ....lest not forget the entire GOM is like the LC right now. The beach water running in the upper 80's along the NGOM...

Yes, but it appears that 90L will have wind shear to contend with.

[ROCK]

New SHIPS takes it up to Hurricane status in the Gulf

Reactivated imagine that.... We have been saying that all day.....NHC still at 0%? what are they afraid of? very curious on their part...

Depends on who is writing the package...I'd bet there is some commotion going on over at the NHC tonight

true Mike...if they are going to use the dang percentage scale then use it....regardless of model support....BTW- I think the models didnt have a handle on 90L due to land interaction.

[wxman57]

New SHIPS takes it up to Hurricane status in the Gulf

Yes, up to 74 knots, or 85 mph.

Careful, that 74 kts is the SHIP model, which doesn't know the center would be well inland at that time (101W Longitude - mountains of central Mexico). Use DSHP which DOES know where the land is. It forecasts 67 kts.

[ROCK]

85mph... a beefy cat 1 ....lest not forget the entire GOM is like the LC right now. The beach water running in the upper 80's along the NGOM...

Yes, but it appears that 90L will have wind shear to contend with.

we shall see...not much to speak off right now...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[wxman57]

85mph... a beefy cat 1 ....lest not forget the entire GOM is like the LC right now. The beach water running in the upper 80's along the NGOM...

Yes, but it appears that 90L will have wind shear to contend with.

Not much shear. SHIPS has 20 kts tonight dropping to 10 kts or less by 18Z tomorrow.