ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Also note the sw shear impacting the system. You can see the clouds over southern Florida and Straits almost cutting into the northern part of the system and blowing the cloud tops off to the northeast and restricting any kind of outflow it could try to generate. That also is a problem for this system right now.

Conditions look like like they will improve though in A couple of days though, so cannot rule out something getting going then, if convection can sustain. But conditions should be marginal, not ideal even then.

[cycloneye]

Tonight's 0z NAM looks pretty reasonable to me through 60 hours.

But you didn't post it

[ROCK]

its the convection over the MLC that has refired...that my friends is a LLC trying to get to the surface...if its not already there...

[Aric Dunn]

Also note the sw shear impacting the system. You can see the clouds over southern Florida and Straits almost cutting into the system and blowing the cloud tops off to the northeast. That also is a problem for this system right now.

Conditions look like like they will improve though in A couple of days though, so cannot rule out something getting going then, if convection can sustain. But conditions should be marginal, not ideal even then.

Actually the upper winds are likely aiding the development of convection atm. most systems get there start this way then the upper environment changed allowing at TC to strengthen.

[HurricaneBrain]

Post some runs STS =D

[Aric Dunn]

its the convection over the MLC that has refired...that my friends is a LLC trying to get to the surface...if its not already there...

Surface obs show no LLC only a sharp wave axis. the convection is what is needed to work down to the surface.

[ROCK]

Also note the sw shear impacting the system. You can see the clouds over southern Florida and Straits almost cutting into the northern part of the system and blowing the cloud tops off to the northeast and restricting any kind of outflow it could try to generate. That also is a problem for this system right now.

Conditions look like like they will improve though in A couple of days though, so cannot rule out something getting going then, if convection can sustain. But conditions should be marginal, not ideal even then.

that is a big ULL over there...I would say it will help vent the system as it 90L moves away...

[cycloneye]

Also note the sw shear impacting the system. You can see the clouds over southern Florida and Straits almost cutting into the northern part of the system and blowing the cloud tops off to the northeast and restricting any kind of outflow it could try to generate. That also is a problem for this system right now.

Conditions look like like they will improve though in A couple of days though, so cannot rule out something getting going then, if convection can sustain. But conditions should be marginal, not ideal even then.

The SHIPs shear forecast calls for not inhibitor shear.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)        19    20    19     7    10    10     1    11     5    12    10    12     3


[CYCLONE MIKE]

Convection over Cuba is waning as expected.

Additionally the overall convection for this invest just really is not too impressive plus over the last couple of hours you can see the southern side getting undercut by those 250 mb winds out if the west.

There is a small concentrated area that some are mentioning but that could easily go poof also.

Not sold it is organizing just yet. The 0% from nhc makes sense. I see no chance it will be a named system within 48 hours of the last update especially with some westerly shear on the southern half.

I debated this with NDG earlier. Said the storms over cuba that made this look a lot more than it actually was were going to die off. Which as you said, they did. Not giving this much chance as every time 90L has had a burst of convection it has died off overnight. Thinking the same tonight until it proves me wrong. We shall see.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar clearly showing a good MLC and new deep convection firing and maintaining.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

[Ivanhater]

Convection over Cuba is waning as expected.

Additionally the overall convection for this invest just really is not too impressive plus over the last couple of hours you can see the southern side getting undercut by those 250 mb winds out if the west.

There is a small concentrated area that some are mentioning but that could easily go poof also.

Not sold it is organizing just yet. The 0% from nhc makes sense. I see no chance it will be a named system within 48 hours of the last update especially with some westerly shear on the southern half.

I debated this with NDG earlier. Said the storms over cuba that made this look a lot more than it actually was were going to die off. Which as you said, they did. Not giving this much chance as every time 90L has had a burst of convection it has died off overnight. Thinking the same tonight until it proves me wrong. We shall see.

Of course the storms over Cuba died out...they were only forced from daytime heating. For the first time, this system is firing storms over the MLC....that is not from daytime heating over land.

[Ptarmigan]

Storms tend to go right of the projected path, so I cannot discount 90L going to Mexico yet.

[HurricaneBrain]

This has to be a record for most pages on an invest lol

[Ivanhater]

Someone had to do it

Nam...72 hours

[ROCK]

This has to be a record for most pages on an invest lol

its not....

[ROCK]

beat me to it...Ivan.....

the NAM never really wavered during the past few days....got to give it props...

[South Texas Storms]

Tonight's 0z NAM looks pretty reasonable to me through 60 hours.

But you didn't post it

Sorry I don't know how to post images on here. I've never done it before.

But I think tonight's 0z NAM looks very reasonable.

[cycloneye]

This has to be a record for most pages on an invest lol

its not....

Not even close.At the archieves forum,you will see the past years of invest threads that have been with numerous posts.

[South Texas Storms]

beat me to it...Ivan.....

the NAM never really wavered during the past few days....got to give it props...

Agreed Rock. Gotta give it props for its consistency and it doesn't look like a bad solution right now.

[HurricaneBrain]

beat me to it...Ivan.....

the NAM never really wavered during the past few days....got to give it props...

Agreed Rock. Gotta give it props for its consistency and it doesn't look like a bad solution right now.

Go to the model site. Right click the picture. Click copy image url. Then paste the link in the reply box, click preview, then highlight each link separately and click the img box under the title. Submit.