ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[cycloneye]

First mission (If Needed) will be on Wednesday afternoon.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 26 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JULY 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-056

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR TIP OF YUCATAN)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
       A. 27/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
       C. 27/1530Z
       D. 22.0N 87.0W
       E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
       AT 28/1200Z NEAR 23.0N 91.5W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.



[TexWx]

So the Texas "death ridge" is supposed to hold through the week?

[latitude_20]

I really do wish recon would fly in later this afternoon - I have a hunch they'd likely find a TD.

[Ivanhater]

Show me a Global model that showed this looking as good as it does now. None....This is obviously developing this morning and if it continues that makes 3 out of the 4 storms this season the globals didn't see....A bit concerning

[djmikey]

Maybe wishful thinking, but is it still possible this system makes a more northerly turn to the central or upper TX coast or is it pretty much set in stone for a Corpus on south landfall? Needing the rain so badly here in SETX!

[JTE50]

The NW Caribbean is one area I fear the most. So many storms go ballistic in this area. Not this one of course but I don't take my eye off anything in the NW Caribbean. I call it the steroid area - storms can really get juiced up here.

[SouthDadeFish]

It would be cool to have an ASCAT pass right about now.

[SouthDadeFish]

Why do the NAM and GFS depict such different upper-level conditions? NAM shows much more wind shear over the Gulf than the GFS does.

[red herring]

Maybe wishful thinking, but is it still possible this system makes a more northerly turn to the central or upper TX coast or is it pretty much set in stone for a Corpus on south landfall? Needing the rain so badly here in SETX!

Don't cry......nothing is set in stone

[KWT]

Its in the prime area for development so certainly need to keep a close eye on it!

Need to see whether the convection actually holds and whether it can keep one convection mass present, then we really need to watch it.

Code orange very likely, I'd go with a conservative 40%...

[SouthDadeFish]

90L may be on a collision course with the Yucatan. That may slow down development.

[Javlin]

Show me a Global model that showed this looking as good as it does now. None....This is obviously developing this morning and if it continues that makes 3 out of the 4 storms this season the globals didn't see....A bit concerning

Well Mike WX57 said wait tell it got to this point a few days ago.It's funny sometimes just looking at the the overall synoptics buy the guys who do it the daily gives alot more insight.The models just don't do it for me that much give me the old Nash Roberts technique and I will understand what's happening all day long.

[Ivanhater]

Its in the prime area for development so certainly need to keep a close eye on it!

Need to see whether the convection actually holds and whether it can keep one convection mass present, then we really need to watch it.

Code orange very likely, I'd go with a conservative 40%...

Loop the system...consolidated convection has been holding right over the MLC since yesterday evening.

[Nederlander]

Actually mikey we are fine here in SETX in regards to the drought. Our KBDI numbers are the best in the state. We've gotten good rain lately. I would rather see south central TX get this system..

[cycloneye]

90L may be on a collision course with the Yucatan. That may slow down development.

Yucatan is flat on the northern side,is not like Hispanola.

[Tireman4]

Actually mikey we are fine here in SETX in regards to the drought. Our KBDI numbers are the best in the state. We've gotten good rain lately. I would rather see south central TX get this system..

For you maybe, but not us. Houston-Galveston is still WAY WAY behind in drought numbers.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=drought

And looking at these numbers, you are not doing that well either.

Edit: under KBDI, yes, but under the Drought Index, no.

[petit_bois]

all of the bouys in the area suggest there really isn't much going on at the surface.
5-10 knot winds from the south reporting from bouys east, west and south of the area.

[ronjon]

12z NAM - between Brownsville and Corpus.

Model Run 84 hrs

[SouthDadeFish]

90L may be on a collision course with the Yucatan. That may slow down development.

Yucatan is flat on the northern side,is not like Hispanola.

Yes I know, but it's hard for a tropical system to develop over land

Not saying it will kill it, but just slow the process down.

[TexasF6]

My local pro-mets have all said this week that the death ridge will move east this weekend...opening up the GOM for Texas to receive some rainfall....