ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

850 mb vorticity

[Aric Dunn]

cycloneye, thats about the strongest I've seen the vort since this system was coming towards the Caribbean.

Any LLC is pretty small since looking at the lower level winds to the west are only showing very weak motion to the south, as you'd expect with a circulation. Still does look like we have some sort of circulation there where people have been pointing out.

from the looks of it over the last couple hours the LLC is becoming more defined and will grow as the pressure drops. there is already a small band forming on the northern and western coast of cube and building south. its very likely we will see a large burst of convection over the next several hours as the LLC tightens and convergence increases

[Outlaw JW]

I don't usually take a personal interest on the direction of a storm and or take offense from someone in another area seeming to wishcast it their way but we are really in the death throngs of a drought here in Southwest central Texas. Cattle are dying and being taken to market in record numbers. Whitetail deer are abandoning their fawns, black bears are migrating into areas they aren't normally accustomed and are being hit by cars on US 90. San Antonio water barons are eyeing our aquifers to transport water back to SA so folks can water their lawns. I know the storm will do what it will do but do keep us in your thoughts and maybe a little -removed- might not hurt either.

[tropicwatch]

The radar out of western Cuba is starting to show a pretty good presentation of the circulation.

Tropiwatch

[Portastorm]

For you newbies, Air Force Met is one of our fine meteorologists and a longtime Storm2K member. AFM doesn't post a lot ... but when he does, you best listen up and take note!

AFM -- thanks mucho for your thoughts and we look forward to any further comments!

[TwisterFanatic]

COLD cloud tops.

[ROCK]

He's blowing up right over our (possible) LLC we found!

thats it....and its only going to ramp up even more sitting over 88F water with light shear....

Remember who said first to look SW of the Isle of Youth

NDG, props where due bro....nice work....you and Aric are on it...

[Tireman4]

For you newbies, Air Force Met is one of our fine meteorologists and a longtime Storm2K member. AFM doesn't post a lot ... but when he does, you best listen up and take note!

AFM -- thanks mucho for your thoughts and we look forward to any further comments!

Oh my gosh, the man is back. From hibernation, he is back. Woooo Hoooo

[ROCK]

For you newbies, Air Force Met is one of our fine meteorologists and a longtime Storm2K member. AFM doesn't post a lot ... but when he does, you best listen up and take note!

AFM -- thanks mucho for your thoughts and we look forward to any further comments!

second AFM for coming in....I havent seen him all season....welcome back!!

[cycloneye]

I think one of the big problems this wave will have to further intensification will be land interaction with Hispanola and possibly Cuba. Models want to either take it directly across the greater antilles or slighly north. It may not get a decent chance to develop unless or until it can get in the FL straits or GOM.

This was the 7th post of this thread,and I am giving our friend ronjon some props for this post.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hey guys, i havent ben here in a bit since our phantom snow day in February. Good to be back. This system seems to be blowing up. Ive been reading the last ten pages to catch up and wow, the last few hours have changed things greatly. Next update should be interesting. In the latest radar posted above, it seems to be getting its act together.

[Crackbone]

I see a lot of guests lurking today. Take some time to register and start posting, we don't bite

Mod duty done, back to the system

Heh, I'm one of them.

Just having fun watching this bad boy blow up.

It's looking good. It's always amazing to me how quickly, once these systems find favorable conditions, they can go from nothing to threatening in a blink of an eye.

[GCANE]

Got a small hot-tower firing over the COC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier=AL902011&starting_image=2011AL90_4KMSRBDC_201107261445.jpg

Doesn't get much sweeter than this.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone think that NHC may issue a Special Tropical Weather Outlook before 8 PM,or will they wait until the regular TWO at 8 PM?

I say they will wait till 8 PM and raise to 40%.

[mf_dolphin]

Floater 1 is now up on 90L at NHC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Does anyone think that NHC may issue a Special Tropical Weather Outlook before 8 PM,or will they wait until the regular TWO at 8 PM?

Don't they usually issue Special Tropical Weather Outlooks if they are going to upgrade a system between 60-~100%? I think they'll wait.

[ROCK]

safe to say GCane that a LLC has formed IMO.....those cold tops will do the trick for me....

[lester]

Does anyone think that NHC may issue a Special Tropical Weather Outlook before 8 PM,or will they wait until the regular TWO at 8 PM?

I say they will wait till 8 PM and raise to 40%.

they will probably wait until 8 imo.

- לסטר

[SoupBone]

For you newbies, Air Force Met is one of our fine meteorologists and a longtime Storm2K member. AFM doesn't post a lot ... but when he does, you best listen up and take note!

AFM -- thanks mucho for your thoughts and we look forward to any further comments!

Not that I don't enjoy reading everyone elses comments, but when AFM posts I definitely pay attention.

[ROCK]

Does anyone think that NHC may issue a Special Tropical Weather Outlook before 8 PM,or will they wait until the regular TWO at 8 PM?

Don't they usually issue Special Tropical Weather Outlooks if they are going to upgrade a system between 60-~100%? I think they'll wait.

if they do wait...RECON might find Don tomorrow....light shear, LLC, and 87F water......taking a match to a powder keg....If I was king for a day, I would call it TD now just so people on the NGOM know something is up....calling it a TW now would be silly IMO...