ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[HurrMark]

There is definitely a spin...it could be in the mid levels, but it is much more organized than it was 24 hours ago, and I would be rather surprised if the NHC does not up the percentages to 50%+ by 8 PM assuming the current trends continue. And if they do, I would expect this to be a TD by tomorrow.

Looks like a Texas threat...perhaps northern Mexico. If it becomes a hurricane, Kenedy County (population 416) between Brownsvile and Corpus Christi would be the "best" place for it to strike, if a hurricane has to strike somewhere...

[RachelAnna]

Models are giving me some hope that *maybe* we can at least get a bit of rain here--don't need a TS or a hurricane, but good soaking rains would be awesome. Got a nice downpour yesterday, but I think it just made my lawn thirstier! C'mon 90L, at least be a rainmaker for most of Texas!

[sallytx]

How likely is the possibility of it moving onshore closer to Houston/Galveston (if it continues to develop)? I like to be prepared ahead of everyone else even if nothing comes of it.

Its been moving northwest today so its going north of forecast. It wouldn't hurt to be prepared though. If nothing happens, they you have more stuff for August/September when the season really gets going.

Thanks RL3AO!

[wxman57]

For you newbies, Air Force Met is one of our fine meteorologists and a longtime Storm2K member. AFM doesn't post a lot ... but when he does, you best listen up and take note!

AFM -- thanks mucho for your thoughts and we look forward to any further comments!

I actually had lunch with AFM today. I respect his opinion very much. Great meteorologist. We're on the same page regarding potential development and track. No reason for a special NHC outlook, unless it's to admit that development chances are better than not. No well-defined LLC yet. In fact, the buoy SW of the "center" now has and ESE wind at 10 kts. You wouldn't expect that if an LLC had become well-established.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We have to remember though, has 90L really changed that much in organization since the 2PM TWO? If not, it will be 30% or 40% at the 8PM TWO.

[RachelAnna]

Does anyone think that NHC may issue a Special Tropical Weather Outlook before 8 PM,or will they wait until the regular TWO at 8 PM?

Don't they usually issue Special Tropical Weather Outlooks if they are going to upgrade a system between 60-~100%? I think they'll wait.

if they do wait...RECON might find Don tomorrow....light shear, LLC, and 87F water......taking a match to a powder keg....If I was king for a day, I would call it TD now just so people on the NGOM know something is up....calling it a TW now would be silly IMO...

Any thoughts that this could be a Houston/Galveston area storm at this point?

[GCANE]

Floater 1 is now up on 90L at NHC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Very nice poleward outflow channel.

[MississippiWx]

It will be interesting to see the new vort map at 2100UTC along with the convergence map.

[Portastorm]

For you newbies, Air Force Met is one of our fine meteorologists and a longtime Storm2K member. AFM doesn't post a lot ... but when he does, you best listen up and take note!

AFM -- thanks mucho for your thoughts and we look forward to any further comments!

I actually had lunch with AFM today. I respect his opinion very much. Great meteorologist. We're on the same page regarding potential development and track. No reason for a special NHC outlook, unless it's to admit that development chances are better than not. No well-defined LLC yet. In fact, the buoy SW of the "center" now has and ESE wind at 10 kts. You wouldn't expect that if an LLC had become well-established.

And when the two of you agree on something ... at least in this guy's opinion, it's meteorological money in the bank!

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Definitely can see code red by later this evening. Looks like it is on its way to our next named system.

Folks along the Gulf coast from LA towards Tx should watch this one -- the ridge will build in over the deep south but not sure in time.

AFM summarizes this nicely earlier in this thread.

I agree with his thoughts there.

Right now there is a slight weakness north of 90L causing it to slow and even move a bit more NW. That was forecasted many days ago to happen (ECMWF showed it nicely) and it is happening...but should resume a more WNW movement in the next couple of days.

[wxman57]

We have to remember though, has 90L really changed that much in organization since the 2PM TWO? If not, it will be 30% or 40% at the 8PM TWO.

No, it hasn't changed that much, but I think they're a bit behind the power curve as far as development chances between now and Thursday afternoon. That 30% is way too low, in my opinion. I'd say 70% at least.

[MississippiWx]

And is it just me, or has 90L slowed down to a crawl?

[Tireman4]

Any thoughts that this could be a Houston/Galveston area storm at this point?[/quote]

Well Wxman 57 and AFM mentioned their thoughts earlier in the thread....

Wxman 57:
I don't see this as a northern Gulf coast threat (Houston eastward). Looks like lower coast is most likely, with the possibility it could track as far north as Victoria. If we're very lucky we could get some rain this far north, but I'm not holding my breath. Development chances may be above 50% now.

[canes04]

No reason this can't be our 1st Hurricane of the season. Be prepared Texas.
4th storm by the end of July. The next 3 months should be interesting.

[gatorcane]

When are the models going to start picking up on this system?

What are they seeing that is not causing them to develop it?

Maybe it is a 2011 thing, but so far the models are having a tough time even detecting development on these smaller systems.

[Nikki]

For you newbies, Air Force Met is one of our fine meteorologists and a longtime Storm2K member. AFM doesn't post a lot ... but when he does, you best listen up and take note!

AFM -- thanks mucho for your thoughts and we look forward to any further comments!

I actually had lunch with AFM today. I respect his opinion very much. Great meteorologist. We're on the same page regarding potential development and track. No reason for a special NHC outlook, unless it's to admit that development chances are better than not. No well-defined LLC yet. In fact, the buoy SW of the "center" now has and ESE wind at 10 kts. You wouldn't expect that if an LLC had become well-established.

And when the two of you agree on something ... at least in this guy's opinion, it's meteorological money in the bank!

AMEN Portastorm!! They most certainly have my respect and attention! When they speak I always listen and monitor and lurk!!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I personally do not think that the SHIPS wind shear forecast is correct...There is an upper trough located over the Gulf of Mexico that will at least increase shear somewhat. Then, it will have mid-level dry air to deal with. Anyone else have any input on this?

[ROCK]

For you newbies, Air Force Met is one of our fine meteorologists and a longtime Storm2K member. AFM doesn't post a lot ... but when he does, you best listen up and take note!

AFM -- thanks mucho for your thoughts and we look forward to any further comments!

I actually had lunch with AFM today. I respect his opinion very much. Great meteorologist. We're on the same page regarding potential development and track. No reason for a special NHC outlook, unless it's to admit that development chances are better than not. No well-defined LLC yet. In fact, the buoy SW of the "center" now has and ESE wind at 10 kts. You wouldn't expect that if an LLC had become well-established.

wow that would be cool to be a fly on the wall at that lunch.... though technically had lunch with you a few years back..just in a different room...


in regards to no LLC....I think it has one but no surface obs in the area. It might be so small its not picking up over a wide area...the only buoy I see is in the Cayman's and 90L has already passed that location...

[Outlaw JW]

Models are giving me some hope that *maybe* we can at least get a bit of rain here--don't need a TS or a hurricane, but good soaking rains would be awesome. Got a nice downpour yesterday, but I think it just made my lawn thirstier! C'mon 90L, at least be a rainmaker for most of Texas!

Our cattle and wildlife are dying out here, our lawns are long since dead.

http://www.woai.com/content/news/beamer/story/Beamer-Looks-at-Drought-Around-Del-Rio/yEEOk_g5bECUHVIFzpYWbA.cspx

[thetruesms]

We have to remember though, has 90L really changed that much in organization since the 2PM TWO? If not, it will be 30% or 40% at the 8PM TWO.

No, it hasn't changed that much, but I think they're a bit behind the power curve as far as development chances between now and Thursday afternoon. That 30% is way too low, in my opinion. I'd say 70% at least.

And this brings up something that gets lost a lot, I think. One of, if not the biggest constraint on NHC's products is continuity. They may have a good consensus that it's development chances are higher, but they can't just start throwing up all kind of colors, especially if an improvement trend is young. Remember last year's 0% -> code red -> 0% fiasco? They're trying to avoid that. So you almost have to expect NHC to be a little behind in some situations. Since I don't really have much to add forecast-wise as I'm mostly in agreement with wxman/AFM, I'll go all meta and forecast the forecast: chances should continue to go up, even though it hasn't really changed all that much. The simple act of maintaining will be enough to get them to keep the upward trend of chances going to get their "political" responsibilities to match up with a meteorological reality.