ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

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Rgv20
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#1441 Postby Rgv20 » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:24 pm

850mb Vorticity has really picked up.

Image

90l should continue drifting NW to WNW for now.

Image
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Re:

#1442 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:24 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:I'm just shocked that despite the persistent convection this thing hasn't developed an LLC.


The problem is that the convection has not persisted over the same place, it's popping up here and there.
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Re:

#1443 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:25 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:I'm just shocked that despite the persistent convection this thing hasn't developed an LLC.


The reason, IMO, is that the convection, while deep, is covering a relatively small area. The deep convection is at most covering 10K sq miles. In a system that is working its way down to the sfc...you would see convection covering an area of....say...40K sq miles...or more.

So...its a small system. It will take a while for the latent heat process to work...and for the MLC vorticity to work its way down.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#1444 Postby djmikey » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:27 pm

WOW...are the models doing the "shuffle"? Why are the models that spread apart? I thought they were in some sort of agreement last run...
Last edited by djmikey on Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1445 Postby crimi481 » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:27 pm

Ah Geeze Marge...
I think its almost toast. Don't look right. Too much "stuff" around the system. Shredder...
Not being negative- as I am storm lover from way back. NHC being cautious for reason(s)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1446 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:29 pm

Thanks for the input Pro Mets
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Re: Re:

#1447 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:29 pm

wxman57 wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:I'm just shocked that despite the persistent convection this thing hasn't developed an LLC.


The problem is that the convection has not persisted over the same place, it's popping up here and there.

That too :-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#1448 Postby perk » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:34 pm

djmikey wrote:WOW...are the models doing the "shuffle"? Why are the models that spread apart? I thought they were in some sort of agreement last run...



That is not what i call consensus.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#1449 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:35 pm

Good lord, This is what the model spread looks like.


Image
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#1450 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:36 pm

So only the HWRF really spins this up but we know it usually is bullish.

GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and GFDL do not spin this up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1451 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:38 pm

crimi481 wrote:Ah Geeze Marge...
I think its almost toast. Don't look right. Too much "stuff" around the system. Shredder...
Not being negative- as I am storm lover from way back. NHC being cautious for reason(s)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html


There is no shear there to shred anything.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1452 Postby stormhunter7 » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:39 pm

I feel there may be two centers... a midlevel that we see with the western convection blob and then a weak low (broad) surface center... in the IR2 imagery... it appears that there not stacked vertically.. with the surface more east of the mid to upper level low? Until this happens and the stronger one takes over and makes it to the surface and stacks up vertically, i dont think will see a structured system until tmrw?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html 20.8N 82.8W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html 21N 84.3W

Generally area lat/long
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Re:

#1453 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:39 pm

gatorcane wrote:So only the HWRF really spins this up but we know it usually is bullish.

GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and GFDL do not spin this up.



The models have been horrendous this year. All of them. There is definitely a developing Tropical Cyclone down there, no disputing that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Recon

#1454 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:50 pm

Frank2 wrote:I'm guessing that they may have to bump up the tasking to 12Z tomorrow morning if the system continues to organize - perhaps NOAA might task something as well...

Frank


Think they will go as planned with plane taking off around 11:30 AM EDT.
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#1455 Postby mf_dolphin » Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:50 pm

Regarding the spread, I always compare the run date and time. In other words, look at the header on the graphic and compare 0000Z runs against one another and not 0000z runs against 1800Z runs for different models. In this case I would also through out the BAMM and BAMD since this is a shallow system right now. In will also help when (and if) we have a good LLC identified and input into the models. Just my 2 cents ....
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#1456 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:05 pm

Great to hear from Air Force Met and Wxman57. Voices of wisdom in the tropical world.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1457 Postby Rainband » Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:05 pm

I hope Texas gets rain from this. I also hope it isn't a strong system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1458 Postby ROCK » Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:07 pm

still looks good....RECON might jump to TS by the time they get there if it keeps this up....
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Re:

#1459 Postby Annie Oakley » Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:09 pm

KatDaddy wrote:Great to hear from Air Force Met and Wxman57. Voices of wisdom in the tropical world.


Ha! You beat me to it. In just those couple of posts they synced in their professionalism. It is a perplexing situation and they are showing their patience and observational skills. Science took over.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#1460 Postby ROCK » Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:17 pm

always watch the GFS ensembles for hints to where the GFS is going to do next run...New Orleans to Tampico and I am sticking to my 18in guns... :D
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