ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[TwisterFanatic]

That one part is REALLY bursting.

[SouthDadeFish]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

Fairly large spread with such a small time scale. Regardless, seems like a Texas storm. I'll be happy for them if they receive a soaking TS

[ROCK]

The GFDL does not look right.. The "storm" would already have to be moving NW for it to verify. Maybe a bit of -removed- but if that verified.. parts of Texas who need rain the most would get nada.. zilch

I think its counting on it gaining strength rather rapidly thus the pull NW.....

[hriverajr]

The GFDL does not look right.. The "storm" would already have to be moving NW for it to verify. Maybe a bit of -removed- but if that verified.. parts of Texas who need rain the most would get nada.. zilch

I think its counting on it gaining strength rather rapidly thus the pull NW.....

We will know a lot more tomorrow afternoon I think. Seems to be moving WNW at moment but so very hard to tell. Convection on the upswing but it remains quite small.

[SunnyThoughts]

10 more hours or so before recon gets in there tomorrow too. Plenty of time to continue to organize. Wouldn't surprise me if we get our 4th named storm at that time. That is of course if recon is still going, which I assume there is no doubt considering how well the system is coming together tonight/this morning.

[ROCK]

The GFDL does not look right.. The "storm" would already have to be moving NW for it to verify. Maybe a bit of -removed- but if that verified.. parts of Texas who need rain the most would get nada.. zilch

I think its counting on it gaining strength rather rapidly thus the pull NW.....

We will know a lot more tomorrow afternoon I think. Seems to be moving WNW at moment but so very hard to tell. Convection on the upswing but it remains quite small.

agree

[cyclogenesis]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts and the link to your site.
Please continue to post here as we love seeing Pro Mets provide "reality" to us!!!

fci ~~ You're welcome. I do post in the Tropical Analysis sub-forum, on Storm2K, as when I post here, the messages get buried by all the numerous volume of traffic here.


A side note commentary: Each tropical cyclone has its own intrinsic properties making it all unique to its own, I believe. Sometimes its characterisics are small, some are big. Then others seem to take-off right away & develop, while others seem to struggle their whole life.


The one attribute I can say about this lil' booger, is that it's TENACIOUS. I've been keeping one eye open to this disturbed weather area, on-and-off, since I jotted it down on 7 PM, Friday, July 22, when it was near 14.2° North & 58.0° West. It survived the Eastern Caribbean *AND* the Greater Antilles; this is NO easy task to do both!


Also, another aspect, is that at this time of night, a goodly number of tropical waves lose their convection at nighttime, only to re-fire in the daytime.


The past 2 nights, this one has hung on *AT NIGHT*, and I might add to that, rather robustly, too, for this time of night. For all these many reasons, I characterize this one as being quite tenacious!


The smallest tropical cyclones are *NOT* likely to be picked-up and sniffed-out by the dynamic-global models, because these models' grid domains are too coarse to resolve.


Because of its small, compact size, its surrounding environment will tend to manhandle it rougher than an ordinary or larger sized weather area. This means it's apt to be more delicate & fragile; something I didn't mention in my writings on my website, but it will eventually have some challenges lying ahead of it in the coming days as I mentioned in my website writing, as it gets deeper in to the Gulf of Mexico.




-- cyclogenesis

[Sanibel]

There's some fast winds moving into the center in the east quadrant on Shortwave IR.

[bahamaswx]

Small system.

[KWT]

Pretty likely recon will find at least a depression, I'd hold off upgrading till recon though unless direct evidence of the LLC is found, its not quite a s clear cut as Bret was in that case where a vigourous LLC was perfectly clear.

[Huckster]

I am making no forecast of any kind regarding our current INVEST, but I would like to draw attention to Hurricane #4 of 1909 simply for the purpose of demonstrating that Gulf of Mexico storms CAN intensify quickly and near to the coast of Texas in the month of July. Going back to 1851, July is not a month that is prolific in producing land-falling major hurricanes. Nevertheless, all of us who live on or near the coast must be mindful that the unlikely is still possible and we should be prepared accordingly during all months of hurricane season. Texas is not immune to hurricanes even in November. Texas was hit by a hurricane on November 5, 1839.

[South Texas Storms]

It is looking good on satellite imagery tonight imo.

[HurricaneBrain]

I am making no forecast of any kind regarding our current INVEST, but I would like to draw attention to Hurricane #4 of 1909 simply for the purpose of demonstrating that Gulf of Mexico storms CAN intensify quickly and near to the coast of Texas in the month of July. Going back to 1851, July is not a month that is prolific in producing land-falling major hurricanes. Nevertheless, all of us who live on or near the coast must be mindful that the unlikely is still possible and we should be prepared accordingly during all months of hurricane season. Texas is not immune to hurricanes even in November. Texas was hit by a hurricane on November 5, 1839.

Very nice comparison.

[KWT]

Take a look at Celia for a system in more recent times that bombed out in the gulf, and it was pretty close to this time of year as well...

[Dave C]

that cancun radar makes it appear to be heading almost due west. maybe a yucatan interaction later today? could at least delay continued develpment for a while.

[Huckster]

Take a look at Celia for a system in more recent times that bombed out in the gulf, and it was pretty close to this time of year as well...

A very astute observation. Here is Celia's track...

[southerngale]

6z Model Guidance

[JonathanBelles]

if I am reading the ATCF file correctly, the TPC is saying that there are 34kt winds reaching out to 60nm in the NEQ...but no closed circulation. In the fix file they do mention a LLCC on radar though. Interesting.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like the entire Texas Coast and Sw Louisiana is in play right now. Meanwhile this system is taking it's sweet time bathing in those warm nw caribbean waters organizing

[TwisterFanatic]

This thing is just sitting there building up cold tower after cold tower. Gotta be close to a LLC, if not one already.