ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[cycloneye]

There have been failed high chance disturbances before; I am not concerned at all.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You will be proven wrong shortly. Btw, you have been around here for a while, you should know which battles to pick and when.

When 95% of the members and probably the same percentage of pro mets like 90L.....it's time to throw in the towel bro. lol.

Ok,let's leave it there. He has a different thinking than yours and you think the opposite and that is good. But this debate deviates from the main topic and is 90L and it's future.

[NDG]

Models still trending towards the TX/LA border. Big questions still about the strength of the ridging and frankly the strength of future Don.

I am not buying the models that either show a TX/LA border or upper TX coast landfall.
Just look at the example of the track of 90L in the past 9-12 hrs, it has moved WNW, not NW like the models that show landfall in that area I just mentioned.

[cycloneye]

From 8 AM EDT TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT RUNS FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N84W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000
UTC WAS 1.67 INCHES. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND RADAR DATA FROM
MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 50
MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES. ANYONE WHO LIVES NEAR THE COAST AND/OR ANYONE WHO HAS
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[Javlin]

Thier is something in the picture that I had forgot to pay attention to and that is the ULL in the BOC.I was wondering why almost a stalled system overnight and it appears that the ULL is blocking movement to the W/WNW ATM.Another thing is that the ULL is being handled pretty well by by the models except the HWRF which looks to bring it too far S if the ULL goes any more N watch the models to do the same.Then one might expect that if 90L(Don) develops to deeply and quickly an even more Northly track maybe what Bob Breck was eluding to last night??

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[AHS2011]

I say we'll have Gert by August 10, based on the two other tropical waves in the Atlantic. Easily beating 2010 if this pace continues. Anyone else agree? And also, I noticed something creepy about 2005 and this year. Arlene, Bret, and Cindy were all Tropical Storms in 2005 as well as 2011. Same name list. Dennis was a hurricane and I was wondering if Don was forecasted to become a hurricane.

[NDG]

Based on Cancun radar loop along with a recent west wind reported in Cozumel, 90L's COC appears to be just to the east of the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. It might have finally the closed circulation we have been waiting for.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/cancun/cancun.php

The west wind was only 5mph. Now it's calm:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCZ.html

Also buoy 42056 is now reporting SE winds about 15.5kts. That's not a sign of closed circulation.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

But the 90L is now well NNW of bouy 42056, SE wind is a good indication of a closed surface circulation.
And on wxunderground there is still plenty of westerly winds still being reported in the Cancun area.

[Blown Away]

TAFB says "Possible Tropical Cyclone" landfall at Texas/Mexico border in 72 hours.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[cycloneye]

HWRF has been consistent with a near Corpus Christi landfall. Here is the 06z run.

[NDG]

I estimate its COC to be near 21.8N & 86W, very small core this morning.

[NDG]

Yeah, IMO the HWRF has the right idea, it might even be a little too far north.
South TX looks good to me with a small system like 90L is it will get stuck in the E to W flow of GOM, even with the weakness that is in FL right now it did not gained much latitude yesterday.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[plasticup]

I was wondering if Don was forecasted to become a hurricane.

None of the models foresee it. People here have been crazy bullish on this system for a week, but conditions ahead are marginal. The strength of the wave gives it a shot at TS, maybe even Cat 1, but beyond that I would be very surprised.

[NDG]

Up to 1.5 classification now, we could very well have a TD get classified before the recon gets there.

27/1145 UTC 22.0N 86.0W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic

[Meso]

Well to be accurate, none of the global models predict it.

But the SHIP intensity model does take it over hurricane strength but the SHIP model can be a bit aggressive, the general intensity model consensus is somewhere around 50kt Tropical Storm.

While not the model thread, it is directly related to the question about intensity



With that said there have been the odd run or two that have shown a mean hurricane by one or two of the globals, but it's definitely not a consensus and a 50kt-60kt storm seems most likely in my opinion.

[HURRICANELONNY]

One thing that seems to be the consensus this year. So far. Is most of the reliable models have not done a good job in showing organization of storms. I don't know why. But it sure looks like this will be a depression/storm when recon gets there today. Hopefully it will give some much needed rain to Texas.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Up to 30kts.

AL, 90, 2011072712, , BEST, 0, 219N, 865W, 30 , 1008, DB

[NDG]

They estimate it to be a little further west than I thought earlier, and looking at early vis sat loop they appear to be right.

AL, 90, 2011072712, , BEST, 0, 219N, 865W, 30, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 271241
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1241 UTC WED JUL 27 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110727 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110727  1200   110728  0000   110728  1200   110729  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.9N  86.5W   22.7N  88.3W   23.6N  90.4W   24.5N  92.3W
BAMD    21.9N  86.5W   22.5N  88.2W   23.1N  90.0W   23.8N  92.1W
BAMM    21.9N  86.5W   22.5N  88.2W   23.3N  90.2W   24.1N  92.2W
LBAR    21.9N  86.5W   22.7N  88.5W   23.8N  90.8W   25.0N  93.1W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          41KTS          48KTS
DSHP        30KTS          35KTS          41KTS          48KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110729  1200   110730  1200   110731  1200   110801  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    25.4N  94.5W   26.8N  98.6W   27.9N 102.9W   29.2N 107.2W
BAMD    24.5N  94.2W   25.7N  98.7W   26.5N 103.5W   27.6N 108.4W
BAMM    24.8N  94.3W   26.0N  98.7W   27.1N 103.4W   28.3N 108.0W
LBAR    26.1N  95.4W   28.4N  99.3W   30.3N 102.9W   31.8N 105.6W
SHIP        53KTS          66KTS          75KTS          76KTS
DSHP        53KTS          40KTS          28KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  21.9N LONCUR =  86.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  21.1N LONM12 =  84.5W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  20.2N LONM24 =  82.4W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Janie2006]

These are the types of tropical systems that can put a dent in a severe drought. I don't often hope for these things, but a relatively mild tropical cyclone could really help Galveston and points to the south in terms of rainfall deficit. I think it'll be a race, so to speak, between 90L and a westward-retrograding ridge.....so any effects for the DFW may depend on the strength of the ridge. I can't say I see 90L getting farther east than Galveston, really. It's a weak tropical system ATTM so it seems a clear-cut case of following the periphery of the ridge.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[thequeenamom]

When is landfall expected?

[Aric Dunn]

The circulation is beginning to poke out the northern side of the convection from the northerly shear.. pretty apparent we have a closed surface circ. and it seems as though its trying to get pulled north... at the moment..