Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic- (Is invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

This system is the one some models develop.Let's see what occurs in the next few days.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P10L.html

P10L
13N, 27W
700 hPa

The next wave-pouch is nipping at the heels of P10L. I will most likely start it as P11L tomorrow.

ECMWF: Yesterday, ECMWF weakened P10L. Today, ECMWF intensifies it and has a smooth, westward track.

GFS: Consistent story with yesterday: A distinct, large pouch moves southwestward and around Day 2 causes an ITCZ excitation. The difference from yesterday is that now the pouch is distinct all the way to 120 hours.

UKMET: Much like what UKMET did with P07L. UKMET really likes these pouches while they are in the central Atlantic! P10L intensifies and moves mostly westward as a distinct pouch with no interaction with the ITCZ.

NOGAPS: A distinct but stationary pouch for the first 24 hours. Then moves westward but dissipates at 60 hours, with other weaker pouches forming farther west.

ECMWF -7.2 v700 & TPW 120h
GFS -9.2 v700 & RH/TPW 120h
UKMET -8.3 v700 & RH 120h
NOGAPS -7.0 v700 60h

[Ivanhater]

Thanks Luis! It is getting confusing out there!

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[floridasun78]

this one east of wave that near leedwards

[cycloneye]

Yep Michael,some confusion with these pouches as they come out of Africa every 2-3 days.But I am confident that what Euro,CMC have is this one.

[KWT]

Very interesting, its got a good presentation and its getting close now to that point where this area needs to be watched very closely. Early days but some models are quite keen on it.

Think if it doesn't form in the central Atlantic, it'll be a player down the road in 8-12 days time.

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian

[cycloneye]

Michael,GFS finnally wakes up and has this pouch with isobarsd until 50W.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[chrisjslucia]

This system is the one some models develop.Let's see what occurs in the next few days.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P10L.html

P10L
13N, 27W
700 hPa

The next wave-pouch is nipping at the heels of P10L. I will most likely start it as P11L tomorrow.

ECMWF: Yesterday, ECMWF weakened P10L. Today, ECMWF intensifies it and has a smooth, westward track.

GFS: Consistent story with yesterday: A distinct, large pouch moves southwestward and around Day 2 causes an ITCZ excitation. The difference from yesterday is that now the pouch is distinct all the way to 120 hours.

I really don't like that GFS model and it's run into the Windwards!!

[Gustywind]

This system is the one some models develop.Let's see what occurs in the next few days.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P10L.html

P10L
13N, 27W
700 hPa

The next wave-pouch is nipping at the heels of P10L. I will most likely start it as P11L tomorrow.

ECMWF: Yesterday, ECMWF weakened P10L. Today, ECMWF intensifies it and has a smooth, westward track.

GFS: Consistent story with yesterday: A distinct, large pouch moves southwestward and around Day 2 causes an ITCZ excitation. The difference from yesterday is that now the pouch is distinct all the way to 120 hours.

I really don't like that GFS model and it's run into the Windwards!!

Me too but hopefully we have time to see how the things will evolve. In my opinion way too early to believe in any imminent scenario... but let's continue to keep an eye in case of.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

This system is the one some models develop.Let's see what occurs in the next few days.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P10L.html

P10L
13N, 27W
700 hPa

The next wave-pouch is nipping at the heels of P10L. I will most likely start it as P11L tomorrow.

ECMWF: Yesterday, ECMWF weakened P10L. Today, ECMWF intensifies it and has a smooth, westward track.

GFS: Consistent story with yesterday: A distinct, large pouch moves southwestward and around Day 2 causes an ITCZ excitation. The difference from yesterday is that now the pouch is distinct all the way to 120 hours.

UKMET: Much like what UKMET did with P07L. UKMET really likes these pouches while they are in the central Atlantic! P10L intensifies and moves mostly westward as a distinct pouch with no interaction with the ITCZ.

NOGAPS: A distinct but stationary pouch for the first 24 hours. Then moves westward but dissipates at 60 hours, with other weaker pouches forming farther west.

ECMWF -7.2 v700 & TPW 120h
GFS -9.2 v700 & RH/TPW 120h
UKMET -8.3 v700 & RH 120h
NOGAPS -7.0 v700 60h

cycloneye,
It's asking for a password to access the runs?

[cycloneye]

You have to register there to get all the tools they have.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM
15N27W TO AN ELONGATED 1012 MB LOW NEAR 8N30W MOVING W AT ABOUT
10 KT. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN A
REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

[Ivanhater]

Hold on to your hats folks....12z Euro much more bullish

72 hours

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[Gustywind]

2 PM TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ANALYZED FROM
15N27W TO AN ELONGATED 1012 MB LOW NEAR 8N30W MOVING W AT ABOUT
10 KT. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN A
REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

Already a low pressure with it... very low in latitude but near the 30W. Something to keep an eye on during the next couple of days?!

[KWT]

ECM actually creates a TD out of this, doesn't look great at the moment so would need to strengthen at a decent clip for it to get the stage some models are claiming...still certainly another hint that conditions in the Atlantic are getting better.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

This system is the one some models develop.Let's see what occurs in the next few days.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P10L.html

P10L
13N, 27W
700 hPa

The next wave-pouch is nipping at the heels of P10L. I will most likely start it as P11L tomorrow.

ECMWF: Yesterday, ECMWF weakened P10L. Today, ECMWF intensifies it and has a smooth, westward track.

GFS: Consistent story with yesterday: A distinct, large pouch moves southwestward and around Day 2 causes an ITCZ excitation. The difference from yesterday is that now the pouch is distinct all the way to 120 hours.

UKMET: Much like what UKMET did with P07L. UKMET really likes these pouches while they are in the central Atlantic! P10L intensifies and moves mostly westward as a distinct pouch with no interaction with the ITCZ.

NOGAPS: A distinct but stationary pouch for the first 24 hours. Then moves westward but dissipates at 60 hours, with other weaker pouches forming farther west.

ECMWF -7.2 v700 & TPW 120h
GFS -9.2 v700 & RH/TPW 120h
UKMET -8.3 v700 & RH 120h
NOGAPS -7.0 v700 60h

cycloneye,
It's asking for a password to access the runs?

Thanks Cycloneye.

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF has it close to Puerto Rico.

[caneseddy]

The Euro weakens it considerably north of Hispaniola/Bahamas area heading towards SE Florida at the end of its run

Here is the loop

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[cycloneye]

This is the 18z surface analysis and the low pressure goes down to 1008 mbs.



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