ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

For those who haven't ventured out of this thread for a while, recon is definitely in the air now...you can follow the obs in the recon thread if so desired.

[Dave]

792
URNT15 KNHC 271746
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 04 20110727
171800 2833N 08929W 3930 07746 0437 -156 //// 217012 017 /// /// 05
171830 2830N 08930W 3926 07753 0437 -156 //// 220016 017 /// /// 05
171900 2828N 08930W 3929 07746 0436 -155 //// 216008 011 /// /// 05
171930 2825N 08930W 3925 07754 0436 -161 //// 214006 008 /// /// 05
172000 2823N 08930W 3925 07756 0436 -161 //// 211009 012 /// /// 05
172030 2820N 08931W 3924 07756 0436 -157 //// 216007 008 /// /// 05
172100 2817N 08931W 3926 07751 0437 -155 //// 228006 006 /// /// 05
172130 2815N 08931W 3926 07753 0438 -151 //// 213005 006 /// /// 05
172200 2812N 08931W 3926 07753 0438 -154 //// 238005 006 /// /// 05
172230 2809N 08932W 3927 07751 0438 -157 //// 232005 005 /// /// 05
172300 2807N 08932W 3925 07755 0439 -159 //// 235003 004 /// /// 05
172330 2804N 08932W 3926 07753 0437 -155 //// 206001 002 /// /// 05
172400 2801N 08932W 3926 07753 0436 -155 //// 168002 002 /// /// 05
172430 2759N 08933W 3925 07753 0436 -157 //// 160004 005 /// /// 05
172500 2756N 08933W 3926 07750 0436 -155 //// 166005 005 /// /// 05
172530 2753N 08933W 3927 07749 0437 -156 //// 160004 004 /// /// 05
172600 2751N 08933W 3926 07752 0437 -155 //// 156005 005 /// /// 05
172630 2748N 08933W 3926 07753 0437 -152 //// 161006 007 /// /// 05
172700 2745N 08934W 3926 07752 0436 -154 //// 157006 007 /// /// 05
172730 2743N 08934W 3926 07749 0436 -155 //// 142004 005 /// /// 05
$$

[Dave]

903
URNT15 KNHC 271747
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 05 20110727
172800 2740N 08934W 3926 07754 0438 -156 //// 135003 004 /// /// 05
172830 2737N 08934W 3926 07755 0438 -158 //// 136004 005 /// /// 05
172900 2735N 08935W 3926 07754 0438 -158 //// 140005 006 /// /// 05
172930 2732N 08935W 3925 07756 0438 -154 //// 129004 005 /// /// 05
173000 2729N 08935W 3926 07753 0437 -154 //// 129004 004 /// /// 05
173030 2727N 08935W 3927 07750 0438 -155 //// 124005 005 /// /// 05
173100 2724N 08936W 3925 07755 0438 -155 //// 130006 006 /// /// 05
173130 2721N 08936W 3926 07754 0440 -155 //// 120006 006 /// /// 05
173200 2719N 08936W 3926 07754 0439 -160 //// 110006 006 /// /// 05
173230 2716N 08936W 3927 07753 0439 -160 //// 102006 007 /// /// 05
173300 2713N 08937W 3926 07752 0437 -159 //// 090007 007 /// /// 05
173330 2710N 08937W 3926 07755 0439 -155 //// 104007 007 /// /// 05
173400 2708N 08937W 3926 07751 0437 -155 //// 111007 008 /// /// 05
173430 2705N 08937W 3926 07752 0438 -158 //// 115009 009 /// /// 05
173500 2702N 08937W 3926 07755 0438 -159 //// 124009 010 /// /// 05
173530 2700N 08938W 3926 07752 0437 -159 //// 127010 011 /// /// 05
173600 2657N 08938W 3925 07754 0437 -160 //// 127012 012 /// /// 05
173630 2654N 08938W 3932 07740 0436 -158 //// 120012 012 /// /// 05
173700 2651N 08938W 3926 07752 0436 -160 //// 127012 012 /// /// 05
173730 2649N 08939W 3926 07751 0436 -160 //// 129012 012 /// /// 05
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

899
URNT15 KNHC 271748
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 06 20110727
173800 2646N 08939W 3927 07749 0435 -160 //// 127013 013 /// /// 05
173830 2643N 08939W 3924 07753 0435 -160 //// 122013 013 /// /// 05
173900 2641N 08939W 3927 07747 0433 -160 //// 125012 013 /// /// 05
173930 2638N 08940W 3926 07751 0434 -160 //// 131013 014 /// /// 05
174000 2635N 08940W 3926 07750 0435 -160 //// 131014 014 /// /// 05
174030 2633N 08940W 3927 07747 0434 -160 //// 120014 015 /// /// 05
174100 2630N 08940W 3927 07746 0433 -160 //// 118014 014 /// /// 05
174130 2627N 08941W 3926 07747 0432 -160 //// 119014 014 /// /// 05
174200 2625N 08941W 3925 07748 0432 -160 //// 120015 015 /// /// 05
174230 2622N 08941W 3926 07747 0432 -160 //// 120014 015 /// /// 05
174300 2619N 08941W 3926 07748 0433 -160 //// 120014 014 /// /// 05
174330 2617N 08941W 3926 07748 0434 -160 //// 125012 013 /// /// 05
174400 2614N 08942W 3926 07748 0433 -162 //// 128011 012 /// /// 05
174430 2611N 08942W 3926 07746 0432 -165 //// 129011 011 /// /// 05
174500 2609N 08942W 3926 07746 0431 -165 //// 124010 010 /// /// 05
174530 2606N 08942W 3927 07746 0431 -165 //// 122010 010 /// /// 05
174600 2603N 08943W 3923 07753 0431 -165 //// 123010 011 /// /// 05
174630 2601N 08943W 3928 07740 0429 -165 //// 119010 011 /// /// 05
174700 2558N 08943W 3926 07742 0428 -165 //// 118010 010 /// /// 05
174730 2555N 08943W 3926 07743 0427 -167 //// 118010 010 /// /// 05
$$
;

[crimi481]

Is the shear still low in that part of Gulf?

[Fyzn94]

...and now we watch and wait...

[Dave]

Hdobs coming in now...

[HURAKAN]

[BigB0882]

Now the fun really begins.

[KWT]

Good to hear its finally on its way!

Now to decide...TD4 or Don???

[TexasSam]

My first post of the season. I'm watching all this. I have to go out today and get a few things for my "storm kit" nothing major. Figure I'll beat the rush to the stores.

[hurricanefloyd5]

We on bear watch now??!

[lost cause]

Thanks to all who posted the update for those of us without youtube. I'm in SE Louisiana, but have a daughter & son in law in Galveston and am trying to keep up with the latest. Kind of glad they are still renting after losing their home to Ike...

The only thing your daughter is interested in is whether or not the storm would shut down the hospital. As for me, I'm worried about whether or not it'll cancel performances of the "Scottish Play," as it is occasionally called.

[KWT]

I really can't see a major hurricane or even a hurricane for that matter out of this headed for the NW GOM. Surely the global models would have sniffed it out already.

A small TS though is another story.

Models have been really poor thus far this season, for some reason they've jsut not been able to clock it at all, the size of the system probably has got something to do with it...that does not mean it can't become a hurricane, we've seen small hurricanes before afterall and you only need a tight core to get it.

I think a hurricane is really 50-50, I think there is enough out there to suggest its got a reasonable chance providing it doesn't take in too much of the dry air, but conditions aren't THAT hostile that we couldn't get a 60-70kt system out of it...

That "near 100%" chance pretty much makes an upgrade a certainty, they wouldn't go that high with even a small amount of doubt...

[NDG]

Based on my estimates the recon should be intercepting the COC around 1:30 CDST/18:30 UTC or shortly after, so if you need to leave your laptop, you have 35 minutes or so, lol.

[Dave]

905
URNT15 KNHC 271757
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 07 20110727
174800 2553N 08944W 3926 07740 0426 -170 //// 112009 009 /// /// 05
174830 2550N 08944W 3926 07742 0427 -167 //// 112011 011 /// /// 05
174900 2547N 08944W 3926 07742 0426 -165 //// 117011 011 /// /// 05
174930 2544N 08944W 3927 07740 0427 -165 //// 117010 010 /// /// 05
175000 2542N 08944W 3926 07743 0427 -167 //// 111008 009 /// /// 05
175030 2539N 08945W 3926 07743 0428 -168 //// 111008 009 /// /// 05
175100 2536N 08945W 3926 07743 0427 -169 //// 104008 009 /// /// 05
175130 2534N 08945W 3926 07742 0427 -170 //// 106008 009 /// /// 05
175200 2531N 08945W 3926 07744 0428 -168 //// 112009 010 /// /// 05
175230 2528N 08946W 3926 07742 0428 -169 //// 112009 010 /// /// 05
175300 2525N 08946W 3927 07739 0427 -166 //// 112010 011 /// /// 05
175330 2523N 08946W 3926 07739 0426 -165 //// 106011 012 /// /// 05
175400 2520N 08946W 3926 07740 0425 -168 //// 106011 012 /// /// 05
175430 2517N 08947W 3926 07739 0425 -166 //// 113012 013 /// /// 05
175500 2515N 08947W 3929 07734 0425 -162 //// 116013 014 /// /// 05
175530 2512N 08947W 3926 07742 0425 -165 //// 116013 014 /// /// 05
175600 2509N 08947W 3925 07743 0425 -162 //// 120014 015 /// /// 05
175630 2507N 08947W 3926 07740 0425 -160 //// 123015 015 /// /// 05
175700 2504N 08948W 3926 07739 0425 -164 //// 121016 016 /// /// 05
175730 2501N 08948W 3927 07737 0424 -165 //// 122014 015 /// /// 05
$$
;

[lost cause]

I know how serious the heat wave is but quite frankly, I'm a bit surprised by how many people have actually expressed a desire to see whatever 90L becomes just outside their doorstep. A problem is not going to be solved by another problem.

For example, just think about the increased likelihood of flash floods in all the really dry areas what with the amount of rain even a TS can dump and the ground being almost clay like and not very absorbent. Not a very pretty scenario.

I'm not trying to offend anyone but it's a severe case of careful what you wish for IMO.

If this was a potential Cat 3+ bearing down on the TX coast, I would agree with you. But with many reservoirs in Central TX almost bone dry, this minimal storm could be a real blessing. Livestock and trees are dying due to this exceptional drought. I'm sure the local authorities will warn people to flash flooding.

As dry and hard as the ground is in SE TX, heavy flash flooding would not surprise me. We haven't had but about 1-2" of rainfall in Galveston in the last 5 months. The last time we got rain (about 2 wks ago) it flooded up the ditches pretty good.

[hriverajr]

If this was a potential Cat 3+ bearing down on the TX coast, I would agree with you. But with many reservoirs in Central TX almost bone dry, this minimal storm could be a real blessing. Livestock and trees are dying due to this exceptional drought. I'm sure the local authorities will warn people to flash flooding.

A minimal storm would be good...a 70-85kt hurricane however would probably do more harm then good at least in the area that it hits, of course if your to the east and far enough away from the center not to worry too much about the winds then it'll be good because of the rains.

Yes Texas (especially central and southwest) is in a bad way. When you see cactus dying and mesquite trees under stress you know its very bad. Wildlife is really struggling now.. If we don't get significant rain by September we are probably in deep deep you know what

[Airboy]

So the media will soon "go crazy" about this one i think?