ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[NDG]

Pressure of 1006mb! 40 knot flight level winds!

[RL3AO]

Recon confirms we have a TC

[SouthDadeFish]

Pressure of 1006mb! 40 knot flight level winds!

Hello TD 4.

[KWT]

Just went through the center, FL winds would suggest 35kts, but surface estimates would probably say 30kts, hard call for the NHC, hopefully they find say a slightly higher surface estimate wind to make it easier for them!

Either way that finally kills any doubt about this not being a TC!

PS, pressure probably slightly lower than 1006mbs since it looks like they missed the center a little judging by the winds with that ob and the wind direction...

[HURAKAN]

[Clint_TX]

Just went through the center, FL winds would suggest 35kts, but surface estimates would probably say 30kts, hard call for the NHC, hopefully they find say a slightly higher surface estimate wind to make it easier for them!

Either way that finally kills any doubt about this not being a TC!

Not so hard they were at less than 1000 feet i think

[NDG]

Just went through the center, FL winds would suggest 35kts, but surface estimates would probably say 30kts, hard call for the NHC, hopefully they find say a slightly higher surface estimate wind to make it easier for them!

Either way that finally kills any doubt about this not being a TC!

Probably just TD for now, with the recon staying in the area over the next few hours then they have the chance to upgrade at or before 00z

[WeatherGuesser]

The media has mentioned very little about 90L.

(CNN) -- Oil companies with off-shore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico are taking precautions amid threatening storm forecasts for the area around Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, including the chance of a tropical cyclone.

Satellite images show that a tropical depression or tropical storm could be forming about 90 miles north of Cancun, Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said in a Wednesday afternoon forecast.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/americas/ ... ?hpt=hp_t2

[KWT]

Large range of options for where this system could go, pretty much the whole of Texas is under the model gun...

[northtxboy]

Hello everyone!! I am a contractor that does debri clean up and removal, Just got a call and FEMA has put us on stand by. Just thought I would throw that in here.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Someone mentioned the low wind field in the NW quad. Thats very normal in a young TD. No big deal

[KWT]

[quote="NDG"
Probably just TD for now, with the recon staying in the area over the next few hours then they have the chance to upgrade at or before 00z[/quote]

Yeah sounds right to me, given recon may have been a little off with thier center punch its not impossible that some slightly higher winds maybe found when they go through that area again. TD4 for now though I think...

[NDG]

Oh yeah, did anybody mentioned they found a west wind? j/k lol

[sphelps8681]

Once the ridge starts moving more eastward, should it not make the system move more poleward. I would expect more jog to the north in time.

[NDG]

[quote="NDG"
Probably just TD for now, with the recon staying in the area over the next few hours then they have the chance to upgrade at or before 00z

Yeah sounds right to me, given recon may have been a little off with thier center punch its not impossible that some slightly higher winds maybe found when they go through that area again. TD4 for now though I think...[/quote]

I didn't realize how early still is, being that the system is so small I am sure recon will make another pass through its LLC well before the 21z advisory.

[Dave]

118
URNT15 KNHC 271917
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 15 20110727
190800 2147N 08649W 9740 00311 0095 +207 +143 235036 037 032 019 03
190830 2146N 08647W 9732 00316 0095 +198 +139 227033 035 027 018 03
190900 2145N 08646W 9737 00313 0097 +203 +136 217034 035 023 016 00
190930 2144N 08645W 9733 00320 0099 +204 +134 214031 031 029 023 00
191000 2143N 08643W 9734 00320 0102 +190 +131 216031 031 042 023 00
191030 2143N 08642W 9741 00311 0099 +197 +128 211030 031 037 014 00
191100 2142N 08641W 9729 00322 0097 +214 +127 214030 031 035 011 00
191130 2141N 08639W 9768 00289 0100 +209 +127 203029 032 036 011 03
191200 2140N 08638W 9758 00298 0098 +220 +127 208032 033 032 009 00
191230 2139N 08637W 9763 00292 0098 +215 +128 207029 031 034 009 00
191300 2138N 08636W 9762 00295 0099 +221 +129 205028 029 033 008 00
191330 2137N 08635W 9761 00296 0098 +227 +131 204028 028 031 008 00
191400 2135N 08634W 9761 00296 0100 +226 +133 207027 027 030 007 00
191430 2134N 08633W 9761 00298 0101 +225 +135 205024 026 031 006 00
191500 2133N 08632W 9763 00298 0103 +226 +137 204024 025 029 007 00
191530 2132N 08631W 9760 00302 0104 +228 +139 205024 024 028 005 00
191600 2131N 08629W 9762 00299 0103 +227 +140 208023 025 023 008 00
191630 2130N 08628W 9760 00301 0104 +227 +142 205022 023 024 005 00
191700 2129N 08627W 9759 00302 0104 +221 +143 205019 020 025 005 00
191730 2128N 08626W 9767 00295 0104 +219 +144 205017 019 026 005 03
$$
;

[tolakram]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al902011_al042011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107271917
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[Dave]

Nevermind got it back..lost connection to s2k but network is becoming stable again.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 04, 2011072718, , BEST, 0, 223N, 870W, 30, 1004, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[tolakram]

It's an S2K problem, everyone lost it for a few. Invest renum just posted fyi, td4 for now.