ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Dave]

It's an S2K problem, everyone lost it for a few. Invest renum just posted fyi, td4 for now.

Thought so...network jam...working here again.

[Dave]

856
URNT15 KNHC 271927
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 16 20110727
191800 2127N 08625W 9759 00302 0105 +217 +143 204014 015 027 005 00
191830 2126N 08624W 9755 00307 0104 +223 +143 209015 016 026 003 03
191900 2126N 08622W 9753 00309 0104 +225 +145 201018 018 /// /// 03
191930 2127N 08621W 9761 00301 0104 +227 +147 184018 018 /// /// 03
192000 2129N 08622W 9763 00299 0104 +225 +149 177020 020 026 005 03
192030 2130N 08622W 9760 00301 0103 +224 +151 175022 022 027 005 00
192100 2132N 08622W 9762 00299 0102 +225 +151 180023 024 030 002 00
192130 2134N 08622W 9761 00299 0102 +222 +151 180023 023 032 004 00
192200 2136N 08622W 9761 00298 0101 +222 +150 180025 025 032 010 00
192230 2137N 08622W 9758 00300 0101 +219 +149 173029 030 035 010 00
192300 2139N 08622W 9758 00298 0100 +212 +148 172031 032 036 011 00
192330 2141N 08622W 9761 00296 0101 +211 +146 172032 033 037 010 00
192400 2143N 08622W 9756 00298 0099 +210 +144 172033 033 037 009 00
192430 2145N 08622W 9768 00288 0098 +215 +142 173031 032 035 010 00
192500 2146N 08622W 9765 00293 0100 +213 +141 173031 032 037 009 00
192530 2148N 08622W 9757 00300 0099 +213 +141 169032 033 036 010 00
192600 2150N 08622W 9753 00302 0100 +210 +141 170034 037 037 011 00
192630 2152N 08622W 9769 00290 0102 +196 +140 164036 037 048 015 03
192700 2154N 08622W 9761 00298 0102 +198 +139 161032 033 036 013 00
192730 2156N 08622W 9760 00296 0102 +195 +139 166035 036 038 009 00
$$
;

[KWT]

No real surprises there, 30kts TD4, amazing to see how far this system has come in 2-3 days, from near 0% to a TD in just over 48hrs!

Wonder what strength the NHC will go to for landfall, I'd guess 55kts.

[plasticup]

So there it is: TD 4. TS upgrade likely to follow, but for now the evidence isn't there.

[CrazyC83]

Data supports a 35 kt intensity and TS Don, I wonder if NHC is being a bit conservative for now.

[Aric Dunn]

Data supports a 35 kt intensity and TS Don, I wonder if NHC is being a bit conservative for now.

that was the first pass the plane is there for a couple more hours. with new convection building they may very well do DOn at 5

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

So there it is: TD 4. TS upgrade likely to follow, but for now the evidence isn't there.

Its quite close to Don but for now I'd go with 30kts, probably won't be long before its at 35kts anyway. Reports of 35-38kts from SFMR but these occur when rainfall is up a little with FL down a touch, so not sure whether to put huge faith in them and go above 30kts at the moment.

[cycloneye]

Updated 18z models with TC Four.

Code: Select all

537
WHXX01 KWBC 271924
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1924 UTC WED JUL 27 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042011) 20110727 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110727  1800   110728  0600   110728  1800   110729  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.3N  87.0W   23.1N  88.9W   24.0N  90.9W   24.9N  93.0W
BAMD    22.3N  87.0W   22.9N  88.8W   23.4N  90.8W   23.9N  92.9W
BAMM    22.3N  87.0W   23.0N  88.8W   23.7N  90.7W   24.5N  92.8W
LBAR    22.3N  87.0W   23.0N  88.8W   24.1N  91.0W   25.2N  93.2W
SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          45KTS          50KTS
DSHP        30KTS          37KTS          45KTS          50KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110729  1800   110730  1800   110731  1800   110801  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    25.8N  95.1W   27.3N  99.4W   28.6N 103.8W   29.8N 107.4W
BAMD    24.3N  95.2W   25.1N 100.2W   25.8N 105.4W   26.9N 110.7W
BAMM    25.2N  95.1W   26.5N  99.8W   27.8N 104.5W   29.3N 108.5W
LBAR    26.3N  95.6W   28.3N 100.1W   30.7N 104.4W   32.6N 106.4W
SHIP        55KTS          62KTS          66KTS          66KTS
DSHP        55KTS          35KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  22.3N LONCUR =  87.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  21.4N LONM12 =  85.6W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  20.8N LONM24 =  83.4W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  110NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[wxman57]

I think it's right at TS strength. NHC could well go "Don" in an hour.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z EURO has South Texas Friday

[ROCK]

they should go to Don anyway....its going to get there anyway and only 3 days away from landfall...

[KWT]

I don't know if I've missed it but what did the 12z GFDL do with this system, did it lose it again?

[Dave]

487
URNT15 KNHC 271937
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 17 20110727
192800 2157N 08622W 9760 00298 0102 +204 +137 163038 041 038 014 00
192830 2159N 08622W 9768 00287 0102 +192 +136 156041 045 057 022 03
192900 2201N 08622W 9753 00299 0101 +190 +136 159039 040 043 017 00
192930 2203N 08622W 9768 00290 0103 +191 +134 154038 040 041 009 00
193000 2205N 08622W 9752 00304 0101 +195 +133 151038 040 037 009 00
193030 2207N 08622W 9762 00292 0099 +208 +132 151039 041 034 009 00
193100 2209N 08622W 9759 00295 0101 +199 +132 148039 040 037 009 03
193130 2210N 08623W 9760 00293 0100 +191 +131 145039 040 038 007 00
193200 2212N 08624W 9758 00296 0100 +189 +131 145040 041 038 007 00
193230 2214N 08625W 9753 00299 0097 +200 +130 150040 041 037 004 00
193300 2215N 08626W 9764 00290 0097 +212 +130 144040 041 035 002 00
193330 2217N 08626W 9764 00290 0096 +217 +130 146041 042 035 002 00
193400 2219N 08627W 9762 00292 0096 +215 +131 145039 039 037 002 00
193430 2221N 08628W 9761 00293 0096 +215 +133 142039 039 038 003 00
193500 2222N 08629W 9762 00294 0098 +219 +136 142036 037 035 004 00
193530 2224N 08629W 9763 00293 0097 +220 +138 140036 036 034 005 00
193600 2226N 08630W 9763 00293 0097 +221 +141 138036 037 032 005 00
193630 2227N 08631W 9761 00295 0098 +223 +143 136034 035 031 004 00
193700 2229N 08632W 9763 00293 0097 +222 +146 133033 033 031 005 00
193730 2231N 08632W 9761 00296 0098 +216 +148 132033 034 031 005 03
$$
;

[plasticup]

Regardless, (almost) all models put an end to America's no-landfall streak of near three years and twenty storms.

[vbhoutex]

Once the ridge starts moving more eastward, should it not make the system move more poleward. I would expect more jog to the north in time.

That is what would be expected, but I wouldn't count on it going way North. I would guess we will see a wnw course for about 24 more hours before it starts to feel the sw periphery of the ridge as it moves E. Then I would expect a track between wnw and nw. The longer it takes to get its' act together, the less likely it is to turn more poleward since it would be only feeling the lower steering currents.

[cycloneye]

42kt at flight level.

[KWT]

Recon's last pass probably found enough for the NHC to upgrade to Don:

193330 2217N 08626W 9764 00290 0096 +217 +130 146041 042 035 002 00

A totally belieable 35kts, and 42kts FL overall will probably be enough to just about upgrade.

[BigB0882]

What run of models will have the date from Recon in it? That should really help them begin to latch on an area for landfall, shouldn't it? At least get some more consensus.

[hurricanejustin]

Let's get purely hypothetical here...lets say this thing goes into Matagorda as a cat 1...what would Houston be looking at? (I'm in Kingwood - NE Harris Co., btw)