Top 5 Hurricane Vulnerable & Overdue Cities

[HurricaneWarning92]

South Florida has actually been pretty lucky since Andrew, imho. not that i actually know how it was like because i didnt live in S. Fl back then, plus i was about 3 months old lol but i did hear it was very bad and i believe it. They have been saying the Miami area will have the Big One one of these years but so far its been 18 years and nothing. We have been pretty lucky in terms of a cat. 4/5 hitting us.

[Florida1118]

No ones been as lucky as us Tampa folk But Im sure the 90 years we've been major free is going to end before we hit 150...

[HurricaneWarning92]

:uparrow: No ones been as lucky as us Tampa folk But Im sure the 90 years we've been major free is going to end before we hit 150...

aww cmon lets be optimistic here!

[jasons2k]

I'll add my $.02, which is basically what I have posted in similar threads in past seasons:

First of all, I don't subscribe to the notion of "overdue". The weather doesn't care if you are "overdue" or not. All that matters is the synoptic setup at that exact moment in time. A major hurricane could strike you and then another one could strike you again two weeks later. Or it may not be for another 200 years. The weather doesn't care what happened last season, or two seasons ago, or in 2005, or 20 years ago. It just matters what's going on right at this moment in time. There is no such thing as "overdue" in weather.

Now I do like what truesms said about 'psychologically overdue', but that's a whole different topic.

As far as vulnerability, I think you have to look at the geography in combination with what could possibly go awry. The top three that consistently stick out to me are Tampa-St. Pete., New Orleans, and Houston-Galveston, in that order.

The flat shape of the continental shelf makes the Gulf Coast much more vulnerable to storm surge than SE Florida. Miami-Dade is more capable of absorbing a major landfall than most other places. With Tampa, you have large population centers spread-out on two peninsulas around two bays, and a string of highly-developed barrier islands to boot. That, coupled with a disproportionate elderly population in mobile homes, and you have a disaster waiting to happen. NOLA really cannot absorb another hit but the metro population there is about 1/3 of the metro area of Tampa-St. Pete. The economic hit for Houston-Galveston would be a disaster with the refineries right along the bay and the ship channel, but the vast majority of the residential areas are well inland.

There is no doubt a direct hit on NYC would be catastrophic, but you must remember that NYC sits right on the fall line and most of the metro area is well above sea level - even most of Manhattan. It's not flat like Tampa or NOLA. Even Staten Island has hills 300ft-400ft above sea level.

Savannah's islands and marshes would be toast, but a good chunk of the city itself is up on a bluff or well inland.

It's the little details that can make a huge difference in the outcome...

[LarryWx]

Regarding overdue, the 175 mile long strip from St. Augustine to Hilton Head hasn't had a hurricane since David of 1979 and hasn't had a major hurricane since storm #7 of 1898.

[plasticup]

TampaFL's comments really point out to me what the real nature of "overdue" is. It's not so much a meteorological term as it is a psychological term. When a population's perception of their risk is seriously out of phase with their actual risk, that is when a place could be considered "overdue" for a storm.

Thank you for this. I was reading these "overdue" claims and twitching. Hurricanes are, inter-seasonally, independent events. They will not hit a city simply because that city hasn't had one in a while. But psychologically, we do adjust our behavior. Great point.

[jdray]

If a Cat 5 hit at the mouth of the St Johns River, downtown Jacksonville would be under 14-20 feet of water. The Jacksonville Municipal Stadium (where the Jaguars play) would be under 16 feet of water, 10 feet for a Cat 3.

The only thing Jacksonville has going for it is the curvature of the coastline.

It has a low flat shore similar to the gulf coast, and a massive river basin that will flood easily.

http://www.marvin-group.com/DOCUMENTS%20pdf/Page%205%20Storm%20Surge.pdf

[northjaxpro]

If a Cat 5 hit at the mouth of the St Johns River, downtown Jacksonville would be under 14-20 feet of water. The Jacksonville Municipal Stadium (where the Jaguars play) would be under 16 feet of water, 10 feet for a Cat 3.

The only thing Jacksonville has going for it is the curvature of the coastline.

It has a low flat shore similar to the gulf coast, and a massive river basin that will flood easily.

http://www.marvin-group.com/DOCUMENTS%20pdf/Page%205%20Storm%20Surge.pdf

Yes, jdray you are right. That would be the effects here in Jax and along the river tributaries if a Cat 5 were to come ashore at the jetties around Mayport. I pray in my lifetime that we will not see that happen here. The NE FL /SE GA coastline has been tremendously blessed by avoiding landfalling hurricanes, with Dora being the last to impact this area in 1964.

We have seen some big ones narrowly miss Jax over the years, most notably Hugo in '89, Floyd in '99 and off course, Jeanne and Frances in '04. We have been extremely blessed and fortunate here for sure. I remember David in '79 skirting our coast with tropical storm force winds and squalls as it moved 40 miles east off the coast. It made landfall at the SC/GA border just north of Savannah. T.S. Fay in '08 brought me 14 inches of rain at my home here in north Jax and wind gusts to 60 mph. That has been pretty much it in terms of tropical activity of any significance in Jax.

But, all it takes is one to hit. I just pray that if this region is impacted that it won't be a major Cat 3 or higher storm.

[jdray]

Look at the pics from Dora in 1964. That was a Cat2 south of Jacksonville.

Imaging the St JOhns under a Cat4/5


http://photos.mycapture.com/JAXF/1079769/31633217E.jpg
http://photos.mycapture.com/JAXF/1079769/31633205E.jpg
http://photos.mycapture.com/JAXF/1079769/31633193E.jpg

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, jdray, precisely why I don't want to imagine if a major hurricane making landfall within the NE FL coast.

[jdray]

Here's Core Logic's report on desstruction from Hurricanes for 10 different cities:

http://www.smrpc.org/Sea%20Level%20Adaptation/Documents/05C_CoreLogicL_StormSurgeReport_2011.pdf

Charleston, SC
Corpus Christi, TX
Houston-Galveston, TX
Jacksonville, FL
Long Island, NY
Miami-Dade, FL
Mobile, AL
New Orleans, LA
Tampa, FL
Virginia Beach, VA

[JtSmarts]

Here's Core Logic's report on desstruction from Hurricanes for 10 different cities:

http://www.smrpc.org/Sea%20Level%20Adaptation/Documents/05C_CoreLogicL_StormSurgeReport_2011.pdf

Charleston, SC
Corpus Christi, TX
Houston-Galveston, TX
Jacksonville, FL
Long Island, NY
Miami-Dade, FL
Mobile, AL
New Orleans, LA
Tampa, FL
Virginia Beach, VA

Thank you so much for posting that. It's a fascinating read!