Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

That's what we all do thsi time of year! Wait and see!

[Gustywind]

That's what we all do thsi time of year! Wait and see!

Yeah absolutely Msbee. Glad to see you there . Let's be vigilant as this active twave is beginning its approach near the East Carib. I will keep you informed as possible. Stay tuned.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[chrisjslucia]

It's been raining here in St Lucia for hours and the Antilles radar is showing Dominica down to St Vincent and across to Barbados almost totally obscured. Looks like we have many hours to come and now with little wind, the system is moving slowly over us.

Hopefully we can dry out before the next wave / pouch arrives in a few days!

[Gustywind]

It's been raining here in St Lucia for hours and the Antilles radar is showing Dominica down to St Vincent and across to Barbados almost totally obscured. Looks like we have many hours to come and now with little wind, the system is moving slowly over us.

Hopefully we can dry out before the next wave / pouch arrives in a few days!

Absolutely looking at Meteo-France radar, unstelled weather is spreading on you, Martinica and even Dominica. Guadeloupe should begin to feel it tonight but the worse for all the Leewards... tommorow maybe. Let's wait and see.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ABOUT 6 HOURS
AGO...AND IT IS NOW ANALYZED FROM 21N61W TO 10N63W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS INDICATE
BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE FAR SE BASIN INCLUDING THE LESSER
ANTILLES S OF 16N BETWEEN 58W-63W.

[msbee]

That's what we all do thsi time of year! Wait and see!

Yeah absolutely Msbee. Glad to see you there . Let's be vigilant as this active twave is beginning its approach near the East Carib. I will keep you informed as possible. Stay tuned.

Thanks Gusty. Just got home from traveling...watching it all carefully. Keep me informed.

[Gustywind]

That's what we all do thsi time of year! Wait and see!

Yeah absolutely Msbee. Glad to see you there . Let's be vigilant as this active twave is beginning its approach near the East Carib. I will keep you informed as possible. Stay tuned.

Thanks Gusty. Just got home from traveling...watching it all carefully. Keep me informed.

Ok glad to see that let's continue to monitor closely the situation something typical at this time of the year as we're entering closely August...

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 PM AST WED JUL 27 2011

PRC009-015-035-043-057-095-109-123-151-272130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0343.110727T1932Z-110727T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COAMO PR-CAYEY PR-AIBONITO PR-ARROYO PR-PATILLAS PR-MAUNABO PR-
GUAYAMA PR-SALINAS PR-YABUCOA PR-
332 PM AST WED JUL 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...CAYEY...AIBONITO...ARROYO...PATILLAS...MAUNABO...
GUAYAMA...SALINAS AND YABUCOA

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 331 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
530 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1790 6635 1812 6631 1808 6597 1793 6597

$$

AAS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST WED JUL 27 2011

PRC037-053-069-085-089-103-119-272145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0342.110727T1852Z-110727T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAS PIEDRAS PR-LUQUILLO PR-NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-FAJARDO PR-HUMACAO PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-
252 PM AST WED JUL 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LAS PIEDRAS...LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...CEIBA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO AND
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 248 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT
LEAST 545 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND
MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1810 6586 1842 6581 1841 6552 1817 6560
1808 6575

$$

AAS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
237 PM AST WED JUL 27 2011

PRC043-075-111-113-133-149-272130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0341.110727T1837Z-110727T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COAMO PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-
VILLALBA PR-
237 PM AST WED JUL 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...JUANA DIAZ...PENUELAS...PONCE...SANTA ISABEL AND
VILLALBA

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 235 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
5:30 PM AST. PUBLIC REPORTED UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN VILLALBA AT
BARRIO ROMERO.


MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1798 6646 1798 6648 1798 6650 1796 6654
1798 6670 1816 6663 1814 6650 1810 6635
1795 6641 1796 6644

$$

OMS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST WED JUL 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF PR IS INTERACTING
WITH TUTT TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF PR AND EXTENDING TO TUTT LOW NEAR
53W. CONVECTION OVER PR APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED FOR TODAY. TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 54W IS GENERATING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL. THESE FEATURES ARE MOVING WEST
10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS CURRENTLY FOLLOWING THIS WAVE
OVER CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT CURRENT CONVECTION OVER PR TO BEGIN DECREASING
PRESENTLY BUT CESSATION IN WEST MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL EARLY EVE. THEN
A SLIGHT LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR INBETWEEN THE DEPARTING EASTERLY
WAVE AND THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. EXTRAPOLATION OF TROPICAL
WAVE PUSHES MAIN CONVECTION TO REGION LATE ON THU BUT AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL GET IT STARTED EARLIER. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL BE
IN THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. PUSHED THE POP... QPF AND WX GRIDS UPWARD
SOMEWHAT THROUGH SAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER IN 2.0 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE
ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOT EXPECTED.
GFS BEGINS TO DRY PR/USVI OUT BY SAT AFTERNOON THOUGH THE WAVE
WOULD HAVE TO ACCELERATE FOR THAT TO OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND TJSJ/TJMZ/TJBQ AND TJPS IN SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY EVENING BEFORE A REPEAT OF SHRA/TSRA ON
THU. WINDS BLO 20 KFT THROUGH THU TO BE E 10-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL...OR LEAST NORMAL.
WINDS AND SEAS AT OR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AND 5 FEET. GFS SHOWS
SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN EAST-WEST IN WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 30N
UNTIL IT SAGS SLIGHTLY SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES TO CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 91 / 20 50 60 40
STT 79 88 79 86 / 40 50 60 40

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been requiered for the Northern Leewards islands at 5PM.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime()

[Gustywind]

Nice loop of this active twave http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... type=flash

[msbee]

Nice loop of this active twave http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... type=flash

Thanks Gusty
We're getting rain squalls now..Some of them are quite heavy. I'm hearing some thunder too

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 PM AST WED JUL 27 2011

PRC021-029-031-033-061-087-127-137-139-272245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0345.110727T2143Z-110727T2245Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-
CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-TOA BAJA PR-
543 PM AST WED JUL 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TRUJILLO ALTO...GUAYNABO...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...
CATANO...SAN JUAN...LOIZA AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 645 PM AST

* AT 541 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING
ACROSS OR TOWARDS THE ADVISORY AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1831 6613 1846 6621 1846 6590 1839 6588
1832 6586 1831 6589

$$
RAM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
931 PM AST WED JUL 27 2011

.UPDATE...MAIN TUTT AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED LOWS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. TUTT INDUCED EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE
WITH THE AXIS NOW APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOISTURE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE HAS ALREADY ENTERED THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE... EXPECT A CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS OR SO...AS THE COMBINATION
OF TUTT AND APPROACHING WAVE... ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS OVERALL PWAT VALUES TO REMAIN BETWEEN 1.90 AND 2.25
INCHES THROUGH THE END THE WORK WEEK... WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
AND DRIER TREND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE REST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT
TERM FORECAST BASED ON PRESENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PACKAGE FOR NOW.

[cycloneye]

After the present wave passes from the Eastern Caribbean,our attention should focus on the wave in the Eastern Atlantic with a low pressure. We are getting close to the busiest part of the season when the CV season gets underway,so let's watch that one,and what will follow behind.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST THU JUL 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING
WILL DRIFT WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND
REACH USVI AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY AND EXIT THE LOCAL AREA ON
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE WILL
BE ENOUGH TO FUEL AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND USVI
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS SHOWED THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
WITH THE WAVE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10-15 KT...THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE WILL REACH THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE WAVE AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WITH THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY
IS TO INITIALLY FOCUS ACROSS THE USVI AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO.
AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FORECAST CHARTS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BY THAT TIME...LINGERING
MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING
REMAINS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS
AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS
MOST AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 78 / 50 40 50 40
STT 89 79 89 80 / 50 60 40 50

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM 17N32W TO 12N34W
TO 6N33W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN
33W AND 39W.