ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[LSU2001]

Wx,
That R name is taboo in these parts Probably more so in your neck of the woods.
Don't even want to consider Rocks forecast at this point.
Tim

[drezee]

Looking at the Rainbow loop don is starting to get that "fist" look that normally signals better organization and intensification.
Tim
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html


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The Fist as I termed it is a exploding hot towers that typically is only in Cat 1+. It wraps around the circulation and almost always proceeds rapid intensification. This is not that, but the high clouds could be said to look like a curved hand.

[djmikey]

Is it just me or does Don appear to be moving more toward the NW?

I think its just "wobble". We will get many more "wobbles" before landfall...

[LSU2001]

drezee,
Cool, thanks for the reminder. You wouldn't happen to have any saved examples of a "fist" storm would you?? that way i could see exactly what you are talking about.
Tim

[TexasF6]

WOBBLE WATCH #1

[beoumont]

I am posting this in the recon. thread; but I guess it could go in the talkin' tropics area. Nonetheless, for anyone interested, below is a short video I shot of a recon. plane flying in the "eye" of tropical storm Alberto in 1994. This is during the calm center of Alberto, along the beach at E. Destin, FL. It was weird to hear airplane engines shortly after experiencing 70 mph gusts; in a calm, overcast sky. It took me a minute to realize who the heck would be out flying at around 1500 ft. in the middle of a tropical storm; going east to west right along the beachline.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bu4EuT85_c[/youtube]

[Wx_Warrior]

From my main man Joe B's twitter:

No change from this forecaster on Don.. feel track takes it inland south of Corpus. Had that from get go, why change now?

[drezee]

drezee,
Cool, thanks for the reminder. You wouldn't happen to have any saved examples of a "fist" storm would you?? that way i could see exactly what you are talking about.
Tim

This may help.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=66472&start=0

[wxman57]

I don't see a WNW movement by the center. The center is hidden, so you're looking at the mid and high clouds tracking northwestward. And remember, WNW goes all the way to 303.75 degrees, which some might think is NW. I think mid TX coast looks most likely, probably Cat 1 but could be a Cat 2. Small storm. Hope we at least get some rain out of it in Houston.

[drezee]

drezee,
Cool, thanks for the reminder. You wouldn't happen to have any saved examples of a "fist" storm would you?? that way i could see exactly what you are talking about.
Tim

This may help.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=66472&start=0

This first link was Dennis.

This is emily.

http://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=68564

[ROCK]

Rock sticking his neck out like oh Don Juan is gonna be like Miss Rita...we shall see!

I can't speak for any local met but 1, and he is taking is seriously. Just not getting over zealous like some.

yeah my neck is out there... but I will gladly eat a heapin plate of crow if this doesnt track between TX/LA and CC.....no Rita with this little guy but I dont want to eat the eye wall for 6 hours like a did with Ike either....

[cheezyWXguy]

drezee,
Cool, thanks for the reminder. You wouldn't happen to have any saved examples of a "fist" storm would you?? that way i could see exactly what you are talking about.
Tim

This may help.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=66472&start=0

This first link was Dennis.

This is emily.

http://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=68564

I remember reading posts on this about hurricane Dean as it was passing through the windward islands right before it strengthened a cat5 for its first of 2 times.

[KWT]

yeah my neck is out there... but I will gladly eat a heapin plate of crow if this doesnt track between TX/LA and CC.....no Rita with this little guy but I dont want to eat the eye wall for 6 hours like a did with Ike either....

Or in Ike's case, the three eyewalls it decided would be a cool look!

Personally I'm a little south of there, I think somewhere within say 50-75 miles of CC is probably a decent range at the moment and close to the NHC thinking.

[StormClouds63]

Won't the storm pretty much follow that ULL near the TX/MX border and currently moving WNW?

[SouthDadeFish]

Although convection is waning, overall structure and banding is looking impressive. Very nice outflow on the western side.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking at WV imagery and CIMSS shear analysis, Don appears to be very in a favorable position in terms of ventilation. The ULL in the western GOMEX is quickly retreating west. Although the trough and ULL east of FL is somewhat pinching the eastern side of Don's circulation, if he can slide farther west, in time, that too will ventilate the storm. If we get another good burst of convection over the center soon we could see strengthening at relatively brisk pace in my opinion.

[djmikey]

I have a feeling this will be a more upper TX coast storm! JMO... I think ALL of TX is STILL at play here.

[KWT]

Although convection is waning, overall structure and banding is looking impressive. Very nice outflow on the western side.

Yeah, convection is weakening, though at least there is some fresh convection going up in its place. As you say the the banding looks decent and the structure is still good, so some fresh convection is going to help kick things on another stage.

[djmikey]

When do the next models and track come out?

[cycloneye]

For those members who may have joined the forum recently and may not know when will the next mission will occur, it will arrive at the center of Don around 8 AM EDT,with takeoff around 6 AM EDT.

Code: Select all

       A.28/1200,1800Z         
       B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
       C. 28/1000Z               
       D. 23.9N 90.2W           
       E. 28/1130Z TO 28/1800Z 
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT