ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Snow Deprived365]

New track at 10pm central time.

[midnight8]

When do the next models and track come out?

Next NHC track at 10pm central. Someone else will have to answer about models

[SouthDadeFish]

According CIMSS Raw T # at 3.8. Impressive.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt04L.html

[Snow Deprived365]

When do the next models and track come out?

Next NHC track at 10pm central. Someone else will have to answer about models

Look at that Midnight, I beat you to the question you answered for me earlier! HeHe

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Stays at 35kts.

AL, 04, 2011072800, , BEST, 0, 225N, 876W, 35, 1000, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[midnight8]

When do the next models and track come out?

Next NHC track at 10pm central. Someone else will have to answer about models

Look at that Midnight, I beat you to the question you answered for me earlier! HeHe

What can I say, I am slow

[hurricanejustin]

Hope you are right, DJ

[djmikey]

quote="djmikey"]When do the next models and track come out?[/quote]


Next NHC track at 10pm central. Someone else will have to answer about models[/quote]

Look at that Midnight, I beat you to the question you answered for me earlier! HeHe[/quote]

Thank you!

[Nimbus]

The gulf looks pretty juicy at least in the upper air water vapor imagery and with that ULL rolling into Mexico to help ventilate the outflow I'm surprised they haven't forecast a hurricane in 48 hours? If I were living in Texas I'm not sure I'd be happy with this setup even if it did mean rain.

[ROCK]

According CIMSS Raw T # at 3.8. Impressive.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt04L.html

those raw numbers are impressive...

[CrazyC83]

27/2345 UTC 22.4N 87.5W T2.0/2.0 DON -- Atlantic

SAB isn't really seeing much yet.

[plasticup]

Although convection is waning

convection is weakening

It is diurnal.

[TheDreamTraveler]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

It looks like Don is really starting to take shape at the last few frames there.

[ROCK]

18z NOGAPS

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

right around matagorda...freeport...

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

63
WHXX01 KWBC 280035
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC THU JUL 28 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DON (AL042011) 20110728 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110728  0000   110728  1200   110729  0000   110729  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.5N  87.6W   23.5N  89.4W   24.6N  91.3W   25.7N  93.4W
BAMD    22.5N  87.6W   23.2N  89.4W   23.7N  91.5W   24.1N  93.7W
BAMM    22.5N  87.6W   23.3N  89.3W   24.1N  91.3W   24.8N  93.5W
LBAR    22.5N  87.6W   23.4N  89.6W   24.5N  91.8W   25.6N  94.0W
SHIP        35KTS          42KTS          49KTS          53KTS
DSHP        35KTS          42KTS          49KTS          53KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110730  0000   110731  0000   110801  0000   110802  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    26.6N  95.4W   28.3N 100.0W   30.4N 104.4W   32.6N 106.7W
BAMD    24.5N  96.2W   25.2N 101.5W   26.3N 107.2W   27.9N 112.1W
BAMM    25.6N  95.9W   27.1N 101.1W   29.1N 105.7W   31.3N 108.1W
LBAR    26.7N  96.4W   28.8N 101.0W   31.3N 104.9W   35.0N 105.5W
SHIP        57KTS          63KTS          67KTS          64KTS
DSHP        57KTS          31KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  22.5N LONCUR =  87.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  21.8N LONM12 =  86.3W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
LATM24 =  21.1N LONM24 =  84.5W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  110NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   40NM RD34SE =   40NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[perk]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

It looks like Don is really starting to take shape at the last few frames there.

It's pulling away from land, and you're right it is getting it's act together.

[lonelymike]

Is Don looking to be a major rainmaker for TX?

[djmikey]

Did the models shift southward?

[Swimdude]

The gulf looks pretty juicy at least in the upper air water vapor imagery and with that ULL rolling into Mexico to help ventilate the outflow I'm surprised they haven't forecast a hurricane in 48 hours? If I were living in Texas I'm not sure I'd be happy with this setup even if it did mean rain.

I have a feeling that the hurricane intensity didn't go into the forecast because the NHC sees Don making landfall between 48 and 72 hours out--that is, between forecast points. I wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane-strength storm forecasted for 48 hours out come 11 p.m. or 5 a.m. EST.

[thetraveler]

We live south of Shreveport on the Texas side and the news up here is saying it wont make a hurricane and it will go in around Matagorda.