ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[thetruesms]

No...it's not an eye. It's a lack of convection. There is likely very little in the way of shower activity near the center and I would imagine the pressure is way up...probably near 1006-1008 mb. The inflow into the storm is getting cut off by the Yucatan and small systems have a tendency to undergo big changes in intensity...both up and down. It will have to get out into the central Gulf before it makes any move towards real strengthening.

Edit: I would also like to note there is some upper level convergence on the north side of the system...which is a real no-no in the tropics. That should change tomorrow with some speed and directional divergence. But for now...there is a lot of downward vertical motion due to this convergence coming from the ridge to the north...and that is likely also killing the convection. It's tropical forecasting 101. Converging air aloft in the tropics...sinking air at the sfc=no convection.

WV also seems to indicate a tendril of drier air sneaking in from the north as well?

http://i.imgur.com/Oaaqa.gif - linked for size

[wxman57]

Two distinct model camps now. The GFS and GFS-based GFDL says Freeport/Galveston. Other models say just north of CRP. 00Z OFCI track from NHC is moved south to just north of Corpus Christi Bay. Consensus is midway between CRP and Matagorda, 20 or so miles south of the 21Z track. I just hope I can get enough rain to water my lawn here in SW Houston. Maybe we can at least have a thunderstorm or two in SW Houston if Don goes inland so far south.

[jasons2k]

Intensity models just don't want to do much with it...this one is tough.

[plasticup]

It's pulling away from land

The Yucatan barely counts as land. It is dead flat, so it doesn't disrupt circulation. Anyone who has been there will confirm that it is warm and moist enough that a sensible hurricane might think it was still over the ocean. Some storms have even strengthened over the peninsula.

Western Cuba though... that is another matter.

[beoumont]

Plasticup noted:
The Yucatan barely counts as land. It is dead flat, so it doesn't disrupt circulation. Anyone who has been there will confirm that it is warm and moist enough that a sensible hurricane might think it was still over the ocean. Some storms have even strengthened over the peninsula.

Probably those tall pyramids at Chichen Itza cutting off the southwest wind inflow on the south side.

[NDG]

Like I said a few days ago, it could be a little difficult for Don to deal with the Death Ridge's Tentacles of strong UL easterly winds, especially if tracks more north than due W.

[SouthDadeFish]

With the UL convergence its facing, we might not see a true flare-up over the center until about tomorrow at sunrise I'd guess. Just in time for recon

[KatDaddy]

For the new weather people on the board the simplistic point, its never over until a potential tropical system is inland. Many dynamics can change on the surface and atmosphere which greatly affect a tropical cyclone....both positive and negative which can change rapidly.

[djmikey]

Ok, question...why is there such a difference/split in models for the 8pm on these two sites? One has alot of models and the other has just a couple...please explain why some show and some dont. Which are the most reliable for this particular system? Thanks

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realti ... _early.png

and

http://www.stormpulse.com/

[Air Force Met]

It's pulling away from land

The Yucatan barely counts as land. It is dead flat, so it doesn't disrupt circulation. Anyone who has been there will confirm that it is warm and moist enough that a sensible hurricane might think it was still over the ocean. Some storms have even strengthened over the peninsula.

Western Cuba though... that is another matter.

It's not really about the flat land. The TCHP of dirt isn't as high as that of the western Caribbean. /sarcasm

[Radiogirltx]

Two distinct model camps now. The GFS and GFS-based GFDL says Freeport/Galveston. Other models say just north of CRP. 00Z OFCI track from NHC is moved south to just north of Corpus Christi Bay. Consensus is midway between CRP and Matagorda, 20 or so miles south of the 21Z track. I just hope I can get enough rain to water my lawn here in SW Houston. Maybe we can at least have a thunderstorm or two in SW Houston if Don goes inland so far south.

Mid-way between CRP and Matty would be me...... Port Lavaca. That works for me, cause the cracks in my backyard are big enough to loose my pugs in. Lol!

[StormClouds63]

The 2 different solutions on future track:

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_04.gif

[Tireman4]

Two distinct model camps now. The GFS and GFS-based GFDL says Freeport/Galveston. Other models say just north of CRP. 00Z OFCI track from NHC is moved south to just north of Corpus Christi Bay. Consensus is midway between CRP and Matagorda, 20 or so miles south of the 21Z track. I just hope I can get enough rain to water my lawn here in SW Houston. Maybe we can at least have a thunderstorm or two in SW Houston if Don goes inland so far south.

When do you think the models will really converge?

[wxman57]

It's pulling away from land

The Yucatan barely counts as land. It is dead flat, so it doesn't disrupt circulation. Anyone who has been there will confirm that it is warm and moist enough that a sensible hurricane might think it was still over the ocean. Some storms have even strengthened over the peninsula.

Western Cuba though... that is another matter.

It's not the circulation that the Yucatan is disrupting - it's the MOISTURE inflow.

[HouTXmetro]

If thats the center thats exposed, could we see a center relocation to the south or southeast closes to the heavy convection?

[Air Force Met]

WV also seems to indicate a tendril of drier air sneaking in from the north as well?

http://i.imgur.com/Oaaqa.gif - linked for size

I think that is a symptom of the convergence aloft.

[Tireman4]

For the new weather people on the board the simplistic point, its never over until a potential tropical system is inland. Many dynamics can change on the surface and atmosphere which greatly affect a tropical cyclone....both positive and negative which can change rapidly.

Now you are channeling your inner Dr Neil Frank on that one KatDaddy...LOL

[KatDaddy]

I hear that wxman57! So hoping Don can remove someof the cracks and make the yard green again.

[JTE50]

Plasticup noted:
The Yucatan barely counts as land. It is dead flat, so it doesn't disrupt circulation. Anyone who has been there will confirm that it is warm and moist enough that a sensible hurricane might think it was still over the ocean. Some storms have even strengthened over the peninsula.

Probably those tall pyramids at Chichen Itza cutting off the southwest wind inflow on the south side.

best explanation I've heard all day!

[Sean in New Orleans]

Plasticup noted:
The Yucatan barely counts as land. It is dead flat, so it doesn't disrupt circulation. Anyone who has been there will confirm that it is warm and moist enough that a sensible hurricane might think it was still over the ocean. Some storms have even strengthened over the peninsula.

Probably those tall pyramids at Chichen Itza cutting off the southwest wind inflow on the south side.

HaHa That's funny Beaumont.