ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 280231
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

...TROPICAL STORM DON HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 88.1W
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
PORT MANSFIELD NORTHWARD TO WEST OF SAN LUIS PASS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD NORTHWARD TO WEST OF SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF DON SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ON THURSDAY...AND APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK DON AT
DAYBREAK.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW THAT IS
EXPANDING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED BUT THERE IS A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTH. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE CYCLONE AT DAYBREAK.

DON IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...ALLOWING FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48-HR OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST OF 55 KT IS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GAIN SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
10 KNOTS. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES CONTROLLING THE
CURRENT MOTION OF DON IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR EVEN BUILD WESTWARD
A LITTLE. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN
IS ANTICIPATED...AND DON SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON THE SAME
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN QUITE AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS ONE WOULD
LIKE TO SEE...HOWEVER. SOME MODELS LIKE THE GFDL AND GFDN BRING
THE CYCLONE ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WHILE OTHERS...LIKE THE
ECMWF...INDICATE A MORE WESTERLY MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO OPTIONS.

GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND UNCERTAINTIES... A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS COAST AT
THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 22.8N 88.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 23.6N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 25.0N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 26.2N 93.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 27.5N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 29.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

From 10 PM CDT advisory.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
PORT MANSFIELD NORTHWARD TO WEST OF SAN LUIS PASS.

[ConvergenceZone]

If this trend continues,the attention may shift to the SW CV islands pouch.

I'm waiting for the "put a fork in it" posts....


off topic: but yes, that pouch looks like our next player!!

[TwisterFanatic]

Don looks really rough right now. The core has just about collapsed completely and it looks like it's getting sheared badly. If it doesn't reverse this process in the next few hours I wonder what's actually going to be left of it come morning.

You know what would be funny is if the system just falls apart before it can get going(we've seen it before) and then all of the models that we've been bad mouthing have the last laugh.... It's not out of the question.

They never developed it in the first place, sooo....

[jasons2k]

I'm still sticking with a sheared storm making landfall somewhere in SE TX. Anyway it doesn't look healthy tonight. Hopefully the storm won't strengthen significantly and all we get in a bunch of rain and some wind somewhere in TX and nothing more. JMHO

It would be something if the GFS scored a coup and we got a sheared mess right into Freeport/GLS.

[Air Force Met]

I was only sort of kidding. It's not like the Yucatan is the arid Death Valley. It is hotter than the ocean, and although it doesn't have as much water the dense forest does give its moisture a greater surface area. Convection can (and often is) sustained briefly over the Yucatan.

Has there ever been a study evaluating the TCHP of different types of land? Because I bet the Yucatan would be up there with the Mouths of the Ganges.

Doesn't matter if it is the Ganges. You cannot replace evaporation of 84-88F water due to wave and wind action. Won't even come close. That's a LOT of energy.

[Stormcenter]

Bingo!!!!!!!!

I'm still sticking with a sheared storm making landfall somewhere in SE TX. Anyway it doesn't look healthy tonight. Hopefully the storm won't strengthen significantly and all we get in a bunch of rain and some wind somewhere in TX and nothing more. JMHO

It would be something if the GFS scored a coup and we got a sheared mess right into Freeport/GLS.

[Fyzn94]

New Advisory...40 mph...1000 mb.

[southerngale]

I've seen/heard several mets today say that the ridge was supposed to slide east, but the NHC discussion just said it should persist or even build westward. Which is it?

[Dave]

I may have to pick up the end of the first mission Cycloneye but will be available for the following one during the day.

[cycloneye]

I may have to pick up the end of the first mission Cycloneye but will be available for the following one during the day.

Ok no problem.Maybe HURAKAN (Sandy) can help.

[SouthDadeFish]

NHC didn't seem to concerned about the recent lack of convection.

[SouthDadeFish]

I've seen/heard several mets today say that the ridge was supposed to slide east, but the NHC discussion just said it should persist or even build westward. Which is it?

I believe the center of the ridge is expected to slide slightly eastward, however it will still banana out to the west.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

I've seen/heard several mets today say that the ridge was supposed to slide east, but the NHC discussion just said it should persist or even build westward. Which is it?

Ridge should begin to build back west beginning Friday. Currently shifting east toward the Carolinas.

[southerngale]

Ok, thanks. That clears it up!

[Stormcenter]

Well looking at things "right now" there might not be anything to throw towel at.

TVCN has shifted just slightly south from last night - from the Port Lavaca/Point Comfort area (Matagorda Bay) down to the San Antonio Bay, near Seadrift/Austwell.

if the GFDL shifts tonight (which I think it will) I might have to go back to my orginal thought of Freeport to CC...shame on me for looking at the GFS ensembles from earlier today.....the EURO is king....

I was EURO hugger but got burned a few times in the last couple of years.....But I think the consensus is in.... Time to throw in the towel on the GFS solution Rock.

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

[NDG]

I think Avila was very generous to Don on his Discussion write up tonight.

[tropicwatch]

TS Don is not looking to good right now. Which is not surprising. An ULL to the west of it, an Upper level high to the north and a ULL to the east not the best of circumstances. One thing I think this situation does do, is that it is not going to go anywhere fast.

Tropicwatch