ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[ROCK]

I think Avila was very generous to Don on his Discussion write up tonight.

yes he was....presentation looks bad attm....see if it improves by morning....

[plasticup]

I think Avila was very generous to Don on his Discussion write up tonight.

yes he was....presentation looks bad attm....see if it improves by morning....

If the circulation survives until the morning then it may have a chance because convection will pep up with the sunrise.

[Stormcenter]

I'm expected a major blow up of convection in the next 6 hours around the center.
If this doesn't happen then he may be in trouble. JMHO

[Annie Oakley]

Oh I don't know much but I see that embryonic look.....I see a real struggle. I have learned that much on this board. A fighter for sure.
And thanks to all for wishing Texas to get that rain from Don.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

[plasticup]

I think they are almost guaranteed some rain from this! The big question is whether that will come with a side-order of winds.

[Dave]

Oh I don't know much but I see that embryonic look.....I see a real struggle. I have learned that much on this board. A fighter for sure.
And thanks to all for wishing Texas to get that rain from Don.

I hope all of Texas gets rain out of this one...and if you have any left over send it up to me. Goodnight world...lot to do tomorrow & multiple recon missions looks to be a busy day.

[ajurcat]

If Don fizzles but still brings rain to Texas, I don't care. We are headed to the Blanco River Sunday - rain or no rain! Hubby & I are taking bets as to who says 'Hunker Down' first!

[crimi481]

Little off topic, but not as much as folks thought om post yesterday
Yesterday I mentioned distinct pattern (last 2 years)- history of last several Trop systems that were forecast to enter Gulf - and reach min Hurricane.Some forecast for New O, Texas, and N. Mexico

90% of those Storms did what this one "seems" to be starting to do.
"Shred" into sections, with energy joining the "ring of fire" around the Mid South states
(seen in link)
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

Goes around the circle (Monsoon) - ends uo in Mid -or N. Mid west states
Where is the center of Don - in Gulf, or in Lake Michigan
Storms not doing well in Gulf - and it must be strange to NHCM because all factors for intensification seem good!
Why? I have no handle on concrete reasons. Do you? I could totally wrong on this storm - but what are we seeing in loop?

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm expected a major blow up of convection in the next 6 hours around the center.
If this doesn't happen then he may be in trouble. JMHO

Yea, I agree. If we wake up tomorrow and it looks worse then than it does now, it may not survive, or may be downgraded to a tropical depression, but
that's of course a big "if". I didn't expect it to do much tonight, but I didn't expect it to look this ragged either.

[Stormcenter]

This is a great loop of Don. You can clearly see the center.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

[Stormcenter]

I'm expecting a major blow up of convection in the next 6 hours around the center.
If this doesn't happen then he may be in trouble. JMHO

Yea, I agree. If we wake up tomorrow and it looks worse then than it does now, it may not survive, or may be downgraded to a tropical depression, but
that's of course a big "if". I didn't expect it to do much tonight, but I didn't expect it to look this ragged either.

[plasticup]

You cannot replace evaporation of 84-88F water due to wave and wind action. Won't even come close. That's a LOT of energy.

I hadn't considered the wind and waves. I don't expect they would create the surface area of a whole forest, but since they are made of 100% water that gives them the evaporative advantage.

Obviously the ocean is the best place for tropical cyclones to form but I think it is important to realize that not all land is created equal and some spots may not be very detrimental to cyclogenesis.

[indian]

This is a great loop of Don. You can clearly see the center.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

it sure does look to be moving NW to me

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Looks as though it is behaving as expected. I continue to forecast a small tropical storm out of this.

And it is running out of time to strengthen a lot especially because the upper environment is not going to be good in the western GOM as forecasted a couple of days ago.

None of the intensity or global models do much with this system. I doubt it is going to be a significant problem for those in Texas.

[HouTXmetro]

Correct me if I'm wrong but it has been mentioned in the particular case a weaker DON would move more Northerly...Perhaps that is what we are seeing now.

[Annie Oakley]

This is a great loop of Don. You can clearly see the center.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

Wow. Thanks for that beautiful posting of Don... he looks fierce!

[Stormcenter]

New convection starting to develop N of the center.


http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

[gatorcane]

Models just do not do much with this system. They are unanimous on that and it is hard to overlook that. The Euro takes it more south which seems reasonable given the strong easterly flow setting up over the northern GOM especially at 500mb and higher.

That is good news for those in Southern Texas and Northern Mexico.

[RachelAnna]

He doesn't look all that healthy as of now, but my hope for some good rains across Texas remains. Rain alone is satisfactory for me, don't need the winds that accompany a TS or hurricane!

[gatorcane]

He doesn't look all that healthy as of now, but my hope for some good rains across Texas remains. Rain alone is satisfactory for me, don't need the winds that accompany a TS or hurricane!

Given it is a small system I would not count on a widespread rain event here especially with ridging building in from the north over Texas by this weekend.

The good rains are likely to be confined to a small area near the center and nearer to the coast.